Outright losers as DD favs

[Toledo Prophet]

I can not help but like Virginia, Miami Ohio and Mississsippi State this week. Why?

I like tracking teams after a big, upset loss.....it has been working for me for a few years now....what i do is bet on road underdogs who lost SU as double digit favorites, and bet against home favorites of less than 2 TDs who are off a SU loss as double digit favorites.

I do have numbers supporting the road dog angle, just not at my fingertips right now.....i will track the record down and post it....i recall playing Pitt with the points at Nebraska last year the week after Ohio upset them and that was an easy, if not an ugly, cover.....like i said i'll go back and produce some numbers and add them to this thread

But, we do have three road dogs this week who lost SU as DD favs this past Saturday:

UVA +17 at Georgia Tech
Miami Ohio +6.5 at Syracuse
Miss St +10 at UAB

So these are some of my early leans....i know ugly teams to be sure, but you have to be somewhat ugly to lose outright as such big chalk. I know in the past when i have played this system, it never really puts you on a side where you're like 'sweet, this team i am betting on looks good heading into this game.' It has been a successful angle, however.

So. Any thoughts and insights into the above angle and how it pertains to the above three games. Any and all input would be awesome!!

 

[pt1gard]

i dont know much about VA but they used to at least have some athletes, catchign 17 seems very generous

 

[Toledo Prophet]

pt1gard: The Cavs have athletes, but have underachieved with Groh's first wave of top flight recruiting classes, not sure how Groh has re-stocked the program since......i do feel if they had any consistent, quality quaterbacking play, they would have achieved more the last couple of seasons.

Getting 17 points is generous. They have won three straight against Georgia Tech, the Cavs are 4-1 ATS in ACC play under Groh as DD underdogs and any bet that places you on the other side of Reggie Ball is worth looking into!

With this game, you have a mediocre home favorite against a mediocre road dog, so those trends cancel each other out. UVA has looked ragged this year, but have a chance to reset their season with a conference opener on national tv versus a team they have had a lot of success against in recent years. I feel these teams are even from a talent standpoint.

Like i said at the start of this thread, this game is on my radar, along with Miami Ohio and Miss. State, because they are road dogs after losing outright the week before as double digit favorites. I promised numbers to support it. I tallied it up last night during MNF and will have them up on my next post, but generally speaking teams in that role cover in the 65-percent success range.

That being said, i am trying to ignore the fact that Miss State falls into this category.....after getting my arse handed to me in pro football over the weekend, cant believe that my remedy is going to be to bet on the sad sack Bulldogs......but, one thing is for sure, i do need more Cowbell!!!

 

[sdf]

long term record is 97-79 ats
short term (since 2001) 26-21.

you'd be better of taking the ML though.
19-29 SU

 

[Toledo Prophet]

sdf: Where did you get your numbers from.....they dont really match mine, so i would like to compare.....you are dead on about the moneyline....last year 16 dogs took the field after a upset loss as DD chalk, and 8 won the game outright!!!!

Anyway, here are my numbers:

In the last three years, underdogs after a outright loss as double digit favorites:
Overall: 33-17-1, 64.7%.
Home dogs: 7-2, 77%
Road dogs: 26-15-1, 61.9%

Last year:
Overall: 11-5, 68%
Home dogs: 3-0, 100%
Road dogs: 8-5, 61.5%

I got tuned into this system/trend heading into the 2003 system after reading it in a preseason annual. However, the parameters of that system differ slightly from above.

Here it is: Play on any road dog who lost outright in its last game as a home, double digit favorite.

Pre 2003: 56-32-2, 62.2%
03-05: 21-12, 63.6%
New total record: 77-44-2, 62.6%

Last year, though, it dipped to 7-5 ATS, but three of the losses came against top-10 opponents....so maybe if you avoid playing a team against such a top notch foe, you're in better shape.....however, i have no other numbers to back that other than three resounding losses last year, and the recollection that the two previous years i was not playing against top-10 teams that often.

Bottom line, if you bet any underdog the game after they lost outright as DD favs, your winning percentage is hovering around 65% the last three years.

This is the first week we have those type of underdogs with UVA +17 at Ga Tech, Miami Ohio +7 at S'Cuse and Miss St. +10 at UAB.

I love the bucket of points the Cavs are getting and Tech has not been good in weekday games; i have no problem betting against Syracuse, even on the carpet of the Carrier Dome; and Mississippi State, well they stink, but maybe the 22 points they rolled up in the fourth quarter last Saturday is a sign in the right direction.

Thoughts, insights are welcome.....and if you want me to list last years and 04 and 03 games in this thread, i will gladly take the time to do that either later today or tomorrow!

 

[sdf]

i see, i was looking at home teams that lost the week before as DD chalk..not any team.

about 130-96 ATS long term
34-21 ATS (22-35 SU)
29-15 last 3 years (19-25 SU)

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Great info TP. This is my kind of info.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Here are last year's plays with the basic angle of playing dogs who lost the week before as DD favorites as well as who they were upset by the week before:

Road Dogs:
Air Force +12.5 at New Mexico 42-24 W
Lost to Army as -11.5

Arizona +9.5 at ASU 20-23 W
Lost to Washington as -13

Arkansas +30 at USC 17-70 L--USC a top-10 team
Lost to Vandy as -10.5

Houston +2 at Miss St 28-16 W
Lost to Memphis as -10.5

ULM +11 at NMSU 34-31 W
Lost to FIU as -10

MTSU +18 at NC ST 3-24 L
Lost to ULM as -11

NCST +4 at Ga Tech 17-14 W
Lost to UNC as -10.5

Pitt +9 at Nebraska 6-7 W--only game in this bunch where the previous week's loser, Pitt, was a DD favorite on the road. They lost at Ohio as -14.5

Tenn +8.5 at ND 21-41 L---ND a top-10 team
Lost to South Carolina as -13.5

TxA/M +15.5 at Texas Tech 17-56 L
Lost to Iowa State as -11

Vandy +15.5 at LSU 6-34 L--LSU a top-10 team
Lost to MTSU as -14.5

Vandy +11.5 at Tenn 28-24 W
Lost to Kentucky as -11.5

Western Mich +25 at BGSU 42-14 W
Lost to Ball State as -11

Home Dogs:

TCU +3.5 Utah 23-20 W
Lost to Southern Meth as -14.5

UNLV +9.5 San Diego St 13-10 W
Lost to Wyoming as -18

Wash St +5 UCLA 41-44 W
Lost to Stanford as -14

 

[Statman02]

it's about time for these three stinking teams to step up........here's what I found

Va should play a little better now that they are in their conference......vs conf off ats loss 17/7

Miami Oh is 19/8 off an ats loss......7/1 if away
but Syra who is 3/0 ats this season counters with 13/3 ats home vs non conf

Missi St just plain sucks......but so does UAB as a fav......UAB Fav off a loss is 3/12 ats.......1/10 as fav off ats loss

this system sounds pretty good to me........I'd be happy with 2/1 this week

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Statman02: All good numbers........just want to point something out about those Syracuse numbers....the Orange obviously have a great historical record at the Carrier Dome against the spread.......i am well aware of the non-conference record and it is worth pointing out that even as the Orange have been teetering on the brink before last year's ultimate collapse, they have still been able to pull out covers at home.

But something inside those numbers is worth looking at......with the Iowa cover, the Orange is now 14-3-1 ATS vs non-conference teams since 1998......even better numbers are when Syracuse takes on any opponent at home after a home game as they as 21-3 ATS.....that got me thinking, maybe the Orange are not so hot in a one-game homestand or in the first game of a 2 or more game homestand.

In the last 10+ seasons, at home against non-conference teams in a one game home stand or the first of a 2 or more game homestand, the Oranage are just 6-5-1 with the Iowa cover a couple of weeks ago.

While still a winning record, it is a big drop in winning percentage from that 14-3-1 mark.

Translation: I am not worried about Miami playing on the carpet this week especially with this system, but i will probably be on Syracuse next week when they host Wyoming!

I will write up small breakdowns of each of these three games in this thread beginning with UVA-Tech later today......these picks will also appear in my regular pick thread, which i have yet to post......probably keep this thread alive throughout the season also in order to track how teams do off of upset losses as double digit favorites.

Thanks for everyone's interest! Lets all win big this week!:toast:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Tonight we have our first chance to play a dog off a SU loss as a double digit favorite.

Tonight's play is Virginia.....if they can score into double figures and if they dont give up a defensive score, i think we'll get the cover here.

But, let's talk moneylines

The ATS records are in previous posts in this thread, but i tabulated the basic SU W-L record of these teams over the last three seasons.

Home Dogs are 5-4 SU, including 2-1 last year
Road Dogs are 17-25 SU, including 6-7 last year

This week's moneylines
UVA +700
Miami Ohio +230
Mississippi St +300

I have not been much of a moneyline player, but i usually bet underdogs with pretty good success. Overall, am i missing something by totally ignoring moneylines?

With this system, i am thinking that in addition to playing it every chance it comes up also adding small ML plays, just to see what happens.

I dont want to pick and choose, but for arguments sake which one of the three above dogs do you see taking the game outright?

Any and all insight is welcome.......good luck to everyone this weekend.....lets roll our respective books!!!!:toast:

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

I was looking at Miss St and Miami O also, but I was on NCST last week who fell into the same scenerio and they got beat, so gonna watch this week and see what happens with Miss St and Miami O.....

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Right Side: Regarding NC State.....if you mean same situation as in a dog off a SU loss as a DD favorite, i want to point out that the Wolfpack were only -8.5 against Akron......I had the Zips, so i remember this line.....i think it did open at -10, however, so maybe that is what you remember........i try to go strictly by closing line with this system.

And, i feel your pain last week with NC State as i was on them as well.....Amato was great as a road dog, but has not covered two times in a row in that situation.....i have been taking them on the road and fading them at home for the most part for a couple of seasons now........not sure what to do with them now!!

FWIW, love your posts, learn a lot and yourself and several others have motivated me to finally start posting my own insights......hopefully i can help down the line!!!!

 

[tendog]

glad you decided to post your insights. good luck--i will be on va. with you.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

UVA +17, 7-24....Push

OK, so we are not off to a resounding start with this system, but on the bright side at least last night was not a loss....I do consider this push to be a win of sorts given how poor Virginia looked...never felt good about the Cavs as the game went on, so i will take the push and move on to the next games in this system.

It seemed like only yesterday that the Cavs and Groh were and up and coming ACC power, but they are clearly in major rebuilding mode.....they do have a series of winnable game coming up, so they can get back into bowl contention, but FSU, Miami and Va Tech to close out the season is looking U-G-L-Y for them......thought the D was pretty game, though, those big plays to Calvin J not withstanding........but i figure a lot of ACC D's will have that problem.......meanwhile, Ga Tech.....can they ride C.J.'s brilliance and a good defense and really contend for the ACC crown.....Ball needs to put up a perfect season, similar to the one Bryan Randall put up for Va Tech two seasons ago for that to happen....It's possible.....we'll find out a lot when in their next game when they host the Hokies!!

Moviing back onto the system we're discussing in this thread.....tomorrow night we have:

Miami Ohio +7 at S'Cuse with a +230 ML
Miss St +10 at UAB with a +300 ML

Thoughts on these games.....do we have any moneyline potential with either one......can my stomach stand putting money on and then watching that team from Starkville.....I actually like their defense to keep it close......as for the Redhawks, i hope the team that went into Purdue and scored 31 points and lost in OT shows up rather than the pop gun team that managed just a field goal against the Wildcats....

Any insights and discussion on these games, the overall system at play and fall out from last night is more the welcome!!!!

Good luck to everyone this weeked with whatever games you play!!!!!

 

[gman2]

prophet-
if you can, get my email from jack and shoot me a quick message. thanks man.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Gman,
Will do!

But i do have a question about the MAC.....and if you are brining up the answer and analysis in your typical MAC thread, i will gladly wait.....but i can not take my eyes of Kent +7 tomorrow......trend wise, they have a good history against BGSU.....but Kent was my darkhorse team, yet i was not confident enough for some reason to take them last week.....they're going to be a lot like WMU was last year, going from a 1-win season to nearly winning their division.....how do you see them doing in the game, or am i falling into a trap....you know not playing them last week, seeing them win outright, so jumping on them this week, kinda like the linemakers slowing playing me or something.....any insight would be appreciated, as well as whether you think Miami can succeed in the Carrier Dome..... like i said, i will wait for your thread if one is upcoming.

Cool, man, talk to you soon!