Over the total - Nick D angle

[NJO]

At first glance, there are 4 games tonight where both teams played last night, making me look more closely at these games to go over the posted total:

Wash-Ind
Chi-Dallas
Utah-Portland
Boston-Phoenix

Looking at last night's box scores, 3 or more starters logged 30+ minutes for both sides in the Chi-Dallas and Boston-Phoenix matchups.

More tired starters equals lesser intensity on D, equals over in my book, as it does in Nick's and SixFive's book, as well.

I am playing Chi-Dallas and Bos-Phoe over the total tonight, and giving serious consideration to the Wash-IN over, as well, because of other factors.

Good luck.

 

[NJO]

deciding to stay away from Wash-Ind over the total, because of Wash's recent under run and general offense ineptitude, and Indiana's recent performances don't make me too confident that this game will reach 189 or more.

 

[ClubFoot]

I like your angle here. Very interesting! One question though, are you sure about the over in the Mavs/Bulls game. I know Dallas is usually a high scoring team but the Chicago factor makes me nervous here because they suck so bad. Do you think Dallas will score enough to push the score over. Do you have any concerns regarding this game? Thanks.

 

[gsp]

My leans show Ind u and Phoe o. The only problem I have with your tired team theory is that even tho the d suffers, so does the shooting. Tired legs means more missed jump shots and 3's. When the line gets near 200 it really comes into play. A team like Mil would be a dangerous play in this situation and their lines are usually high. Good luck

 

[NJO]

part of the angle, as well, that I didn't mention is having both teams traveling (so, a team at home, the night after a home game, would not qualify).

anyway, this has been a profitable play this season so far, and it makes sense to me.

as for the tired legs on the offensive end, I don't see it as nearly as significant an effect as on the defensive end. defense is more about effort, than anything, and it will be sacrificed in the name of getting 20 on the other end.

that is how I view it, anyway.

as for Chicago-Dallas over the total, I like Dallas's offensive explosiveness, Chicago's recent lackluster performances on the defensive end, and Chicago's recent offensive performances (coupled with Dallas's D) lead me to believe they can get to 90 or maybe a bit over that.

if they do that, Dallas needs "just" 105 to win this play, and I'll take my chances on that.

good luck.

 

[alienx]

Since I have seen it on Nick's thread I have tried to follow the trend and yes, teams travelling after playing prev night is a very important factor. I have broke even when I played on the over for the teams just played last night. But I haven't lost on the over, when they have also traveled. I haven't played all the possiable games. I am sure I have missed some but just weanted to input my expirience w/ the trend. Ihave tried to bring this up to hear Nick's input but he might not have seen it or not have time. Hope we'll hear some input now.

GSP, you are right I thought of the same thing, tired legs = poor shooting. So why are they going over. Maybe traveling have some effect on D.

I was thinking, I'll play more unders for todays games as Nolan's theory about after holidays points to unders.

Not for tonight but about the O/U trendsI have seen couple more profitable. One trend that I keep bringing up is when the teams face each other consecutively the second game goes over. Can't explain why b/c I thought they should be able to defend them better as they have just played against each other but for some reason Offense wins.

 

[NJO]

a couple of ugly ones last night -- more of Nick D's discipline here (play one total, and be more selective) might be the ideal approach.

I still think this system makes sense, it just didn't shake out that way last night.