Overrated, underrated story lines

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Overrated, underrated story lines

Whether it be challenging the host of a sports-talk radio program or arguing with the guy sitting on the next barstool over, sports fans are inherently inclined to voice their opinion. Arguing a point comes as second nature to those who spend time obsessing over the games men play for money. Which team should be atop this week's power rankings? Who is the best fantasy football player of all time? Should Coach X be fired? Will Tom Brady's marriage to Gisele B?ndchen impact his play? Each of the aforementioned questions surely will be argued in the coming months. With that mind, the writers of Pro Football Weekly decided to tee off on multiple topics, as you'll read on this site in the coming days.

Most overrated story line: Brett Favre's on-again, off-again future ? AGAIN!!!!!

There's no denying the extra spark Brett Favre would bring to the NFC North if he follows in Jay Cutler's footsteps and becomes the Vikings' starting quarterback before the summer grinds to a halt. Suddenly, a division that seemed really lackluster at the start of the offseason would be generating as big a buzz as any division in the league.

But until such a move becomes 100 percent official, all the back-and-forth speculation regarding Favre's throwing shoulder that we are currently being bombarded with is flat-out meaningless, as different media outlets across the country attempt to breathlessly outdo one another with the latest up-to-the-minute news flashes on "Good ol' No. 4."

Here's a case in point.

Driving home from work on Monday, May 18, one of the local sports-talk radio shows was going on and on about the report out of St. Paul that surgery for Favre's partially torn biceps tendon was expected to be performed later in the week. Instantly, the radio station was playing up the upcoming playing dates between the Vikings and Packers this coming season on the same level as the final "Seinfeld" episode. The next morning, however, ESPN (who else?) flexed its muscle with the news that Favre did NOT have an appointment scheduled with Dr. James Andrews and that he was nowhere near ready to commit to an operation.

Enough, already!

Yes, Favre's future is ultimately provocative fodder for pro football followers far and wide. But the endless innuendo leading up to his ultimate decision has become unnervingly excessive. Suffice it to say there are much more significant storylines worth pondering at the moment than the headache-inducing Favre rumors that unfortunately show no signs of slowing down any time soon.



Most underrated story line: The effects of changes in the NFL pension plan on NFL coaches

The fact that a number of NFL coaches' dissatisfaction over widespread changes in the NFL's pension, 401(k) and supplemental retirement fund was at least mentioned in the majority of advance stories on the recent league meetings is worth pointing out.

Too bad it was never mentioned in the lead paragraphs of any of those stories.

After all, what was more important: the city that will be hosting the Super Bowl in 2013, or potentially harmful changes in a pension system, with no forewarning, that deservedly has the NFL's assistant-coaching ranks up in arms?

"Having a pension is a big deal," says Larry Kennan, the staff director of the NFL Coaches Association in reaction to the league owners' vote in March to make the pension, 401(k) and current supplemental retirement plan non-mandatory for individual teams. "A lot of coaches are in the NFL instead of college because of the wonderful pension we have. For them to change it dramatically without any advanced warning is wrong."

Right on, Larry.

It's so wrong that a full-scale movement toward the more secure college ranks by said assistant coaches could become a fast-developing trend. Assuring this sadly under-the-radar group of NFL lifers a rock-solid retirement package with no strings attached should be a top priority. Forget that it's hardly the sexiest topic on the NFL news meter. Such blatant disregard for the well-being of hardworking NFL coaches far and wide is a disgrace that needs to be rectified as soon as possible.

 

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Overrated, underrated studio hosts

Overrated, underrated studio hosts

Overrated, underrated studio hosts.About the
Question: Which studio host for an NFL television program is most overrated? Who is most underrated?

Overrated: Chris Berman

Berman?s bombastic act is getting old. I?m not impressed or entertained with the overdone nicknaming or loud self-made sound effects (e.g., ?whoop!?), and I think many others have already tired of his style. Yet, some people must like it. Why else would ESPN continue to trot him out as the host of their Sunday- and Monday-night studio coverage? He?s been at this for a long time. So long, in fact, that his voice is synonymous with NFL highlight reels. The ?Swami,? as he?s dubbed himself, is an institution. Berman allows his large personality to rule a broadcast, often at the expense of insightful commentary from the panel of analysts he?s often joined on set by. It would be much more tolerable if Berman consistently kept us laughing with clever witticisms, but he just doesn?t. Instead, the humor comes off as forced, making it difficult to enjoy his broadcasts.



Underrated: Curt Menefee

He has an unenviable and, for the most part, thankless task, but Menefee handles the role of referee on Fox?s hour-long pregame show well. While Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Jimmy Johnson, and the newest member of the panel, Michael Strahan, show a natural inclination toward laughing it up, throwing barbs at one another and veering off subject, it?s up to Menefee to reel them in and keep their focus on the topic at hand. He does so pretty well, given the circumstances. With a slew of characters surrounding him, Menefee is a minimalist ? you barely notice him, and that?s just the way he wants it. Naturally, that low-key style won?t make him the most popular person in his profession, and that?s too bad because Menefee, who has only been at his current job for a few seasons, is already one of the best at it.

 

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Overrated, underrated coaching position

Overrated, underrated coaching position

Overrated, underrated coaching position.
Question: Which position on an NFL coaching staff is most overrated? Underrated?

Overrated: Head coach

This isn't meant to minimize the pressure of being the head coach, which is huge. Even more than the quarterback, the head coach is usually the focus of the media's and the fans' scorn when things dip south, just as he is lavished with the most praise when the club is humming. In reality, however, head coaches have far less impact on the successes and failures of their teams than the attention given to them suggests.

In the overly compartmentalized world of the NFL, a head coach often operates as an overseer of the on-field operation, providing blueprints whose execution is carried out by assistants. With few exceptions, a head coach devotes the bulk of his energy to either the offense or the defense, where he collaborates with the coordinator of that unit to formulate a game plan. Furthermore, during the game, the coordinators are generally responsible for making the calls, with the head coach only intervening when he sees fit.

As for the players on the field, their talents are honed on the practice field by position coaches, and they're given their job by some combination of the head coach, general manager, scouts and even the owner ? it's hardly a one-man operation.

Keep in mind that this "overrated" designation for head coaches is for those in the NFL, not all levels of football. At the collegiate level, the success of a program is often a direct reflection of its recruiting effort, on which the head coach has tremendous influence.



Underrated: Strength and conditioning coach

Championships are won in the offseason, you say, in weight rooms and on the hills? Well, not exactly, but you better believe that there's a pretty strong correlation between those who get their bodies in the best shape and those who perform best on Sundays. More than any other mainstream American sport (baseball, basketball, hockey, tennis, golf, etc.), football values physical tools (size, speed, strength) over coordination and motor skills. That's why scouts place such stock in Combine performances, where 40-yard dash times and bench-press reps are scrutinized with the same intensity as game tape.

It's therefore incumbent upon strength and conditioning coaches to mold players into premier athletes before they're turned over to the coaches who are responsible for cultivating football players.

Now, if teams were outfitted with 53 players who had the work ethic of Jerry Rice or Walter Payton, strength and conditioning coaches would be about as relevant as the dropkick. Unfortunately, most players need a kick in the ass to maximize their potential and, on top of that, need the technical know-how to get there. That's where this oft-ignored staff position comes in. Strength and conditioning coaches craft training programs geared for individual positions and even individual players, and their work is more behind the scenes than any other coach on staff.

True, there's less of a difference between the best and worst strength and conditioning coaches than there is between, say, offensive coordinators ? much of their work involves a mastery of human physiology, where there's only so much room for interpretation ? but that doesn't make them any less vital to the health of a team.

 

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Overrated, underrated receivers of all time

Overrated, underrated receivers of all time

Overrated, underrated receivers of all time

Question: Which all-time NFL receiver is overrated, underrated?

Overrated: Lynn Swann, Steelers

Swann was a college legend who made his name in the NFL with a few highlight catches and monster games in Super Bowls, namely in X (when he was MVP) and XIII, and he shouldn't be negated for having four rings. But one of them came when Swann was a little-used rookie (he didn't catch a pass in IX), and the final one came after the 1979 season, when he had passed the baton to John Stallworth as the Steelers' top receiver.

Swann has become the hallmark for the overrated receiver, and his election to the Pro Football Hall of Fame has posed a serious problem to voters who consider more qualified candidates in the more pass-heavy era that followed. There's no question that Swann's amiable personality helped his cause, and his work as a TV analyst and reporter - which began during his playing career in 1976 ? showcased him and helped belie his sometimes pedestrian statistics. By 1980, injuries had taken their toll on Swann, who caught only 96 passes and 12 TDs over his final three seasons.

He's ranked 181st all time in receiving yards, sandwiched by the forgettable Reggie Langhorne and Jerry Smith. Another smallish receiver, the Falcons' Alfred Jenkins, played nearly the same years as Swann and had more career yards and receptions than him, despite missing nearly a full season to injury in 1978. And yet Jenkins remains largely unknown, perhaps outside Atlanta, while Swann is enshrined in Canton. Go figure.



Underrated: Stanley Morgan, Patriots

We can accurately compare the career numbers of Morgan and Swann because they were roughly the same size (both about 5-11, 180 pounds), had a six-year overlap from 1977 to 1982 and played on teams that often preferred to run the ball. In that time, Morgan's first six years in the league, he caught 216 passes for 4,869 yards for a ridiculous 22.5-yard average and 35 touchdowns in a run-heavy offense with Steve Grogan under center. Swann's Steelers also ran the ball well and often, but despite having the benefit of Hall of Fame QB Terry Bradshaw, his numbers over that stretch were not better: 248 receptions for 3,957 yards (16.0-yard average) and 35 touchdowns.

Swann is in the Hall of Fame. Morgan had trouble even making the Patriots' Hall of Fame until 2007, despite leading the team in receiving yardage nine times in an 11-year stretch. He often played alongside some uninspiring receivers ? a declining Harold Jackson, Cedric Jones, Stephen Starring and others - until Irving Fryar stole Morgan's thunder after becoming the No. 1 pick in the draft. But it was a testament to Morgan's skill and longevity that he would have his best season in 1986, when he caught 84 passes and his 1,491 yards placed him second only to Jerry Rice that season.

As a Patriot, Morgan averaged more yards per game and yards per catch than Swann did - and he played in 81 more career games. Morgan made four Pro Bowls to Swann's three. The biggest difference: those four rings.

 

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Overrated, underrated ways to build a quality fantasy roster

Overrated, underrated ways to build a quality fantasy roster

Overrated, underrated ways to build a quality fantasy roster

Subject: Building a quality fantasy roster

Overrated: The draft

For many owners, the most anticipated day of the fantasy football calendar occurs sometime in late August or early September, when league members gather to draft their rosters for the upcoming season. And with good reason ? the draft is indeed important, because it's the time when you establish the core of your fantasy squad. But is it really the most crucial event in the entire fantasy season? More often than not, no. How frequently does the guy whose team looks the best before Week One wind up capturing the fantasy title in December? It might happen once in a while, but it's the exception more than the rule. Things change so much during the course of an NFL campaign that it's nearly impossible to rely upon your preseason accomplishments to carry you through the whole year. Owners who draft a solid club, then simply sit back and see how it pans out, will usually be disappointed come season's end.



Underrated: In-season pickups

Want to know the fastest way to overcome a mediocre draft and turn your team into a contender? Become a hawk on your league's waiver wire. All too often, fantasy owners get lazy once the season is a few weeks old, paying little attention to adding free agents, especially ones who might be flying under the radar. Since few things ever remain static in the NFL, unexpected players are going to suddenly gain fantasy value virtually every single week. If these players are not owned in your league - as will often be the case ? consider them yours for the taking. If you can grab one or two major contributors off the wire each season and sprinkle in a few solid producers along the way, you'll likely have a contending team ? regardless of what you did on draft day.

 

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Overrated, underrated divisions

Overrated, underrated divisions

Overrated, underrated divisions

Question: Which NFL division is the most overrated? Underrated?

Most overrated division: AFC South

Let's start right at the top with the two supposed powerhouses in this division - the undeniably successful Colts, who have rung up no fewer than 12 victories in each of the last six seasons, and the much less glamorous but similarly successful Titans, who have enjoyed at least a two-victory increase in each of the last four seasons, capped off by last year's impressive, division-winning 13-3 campaign. The Colts and Titans are ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, in Pro Football Weekly's 2009 preseason Power Rankings ? see the June 2009 print edition, available at newsstands and at PFWstore.com ? but the more I analyze these two teams, the less I believe they deserve such lofty status.

In the Colts' case, two extremely key ingredients in their time-tested recipe for success ? head coach Tony Dungy and WR Marvin Harrison ? are no longer part of the mix. Granted, Harrison might have been on his last legs last season. But even though I'm a big Anthony Gonzalez fan, I can see Harrison's presence both on and off the field being sorely missed. Obviously, Dungy's presence will be sorely missed. And let's not forget the loss of both coordinators - Ron Meeks on defense and, more significantly, Tom Moore on offense ? as well as longtime successful O-line coach Howard Mudd. One could obviously say that, as long as the Colts have Peyton Manning under center, they will remain one of the league's better teams. But God help the Colts if Manning goes down! Unlike the Patriots, who did a decent job persevering last season after Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week One, the Colts would figure to quickly crumble without Manning doing his thing.

As for the Titans' situation under center, can anybody be completely confident that aging Kerry Collins, who was surprisingly solid last season, will continue to overcome his obvious limitations at this stage of his career? When you add the fact that the Titans WR corps remains ordinary at best, and that the team has lost arguably the league's best interior defender up front in Albert Haynesworth, a third straight double-digit win total could be hard to come by.

And when you further add the Texans and Jaguars to the equation ? they rank 18th and 24th, respectively, in PFW's rankings ? you come up with a division that could be heading significantly south in overall win totals in 2009.

Most underrated division: NFC West

It's been widely called the "NFC Worst" for what seems forever, and there's good reason for that. But it says here that there's equally good reason to believe that the NFC West no longer deserves such a hard-earned weak-sister image. To begin with, the Cardinals' quantum leap in the desert was NOT a mirage. Although it has lost players like Edgerrin James on offense and Antonio Smith on defense and has an inordinate number of potentially divisive contract concerns, this is a team that figures to be a rock-solid contender as long as Ken Whisenhunt keeps doing a good job coaching, Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald keep effectively spearheading one of the league's livelier offenses, and defenders like Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett and Adrian Wilson can pick up where they left off last postseason.

That said, a cakewalk toward a second straight division title is far from a sure thing. The Seahawks look like a team that could be breathing very heavily down the Cardinals' necks all season after making what look like major improvements in both the draft (OLB Aaron Curry) and free agency (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cory Redding, Colin Cole, Ken Lucas). I would agree with the widely held belief that the Seahawks were snakebitten by injuries more than any other team last year, and I think their luck will improve by leaps and bounds this season.

Beyond that, the Niners and Rams appear quite determined to establish dramatically different cultures with Mike Singletary and Steve Spagnuolo, respectively, at the helms, and the arrows for both teams are definitely pointing way up. That's especially the case with the Rams, whom I could easily see tripling their 2008 win total.

If any of these teams ends up doing what the Cardinals ended up doing, out of nowhere, last season ? playing games against teams from the rather ordinary AFC East certainly won't hurt their cause ? it should not be considered an out-and-out shock by any means.

 

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Overrated, underrated Super Bowls

Overrated, underrated Super Bowls

Overrated, underrated Super Bowls

Question: Which Super Bowl was most overrated? Underrated?

Overrated: Super Bowl III

The game has taken on Homeric status in lore, and perhaps it was a terrific upset, but as a game it fell woefully short. It was plagued as much by the Colts' poor quarterbacking (Earl Morrall and John Unitas combined for four interceptions on 41 passes) as it was for poor coaching.

Yeah, I said it ? Don Shula had too much faith in Morrall, the league MVP, during a horrible performance where he completed only 6-of-17 passes for 71 yards with three first-half interceptions. Instead of inserting Unitas after halftime, when the Colts trailed only 7-0, Shula waited until there was less than four minutes remaining in the third quarter and they were down 13-0 to send in Unitas, who led them to their only touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Also woefully underused was HB Tom Matte, who had ripped off a run of 58 yards and a reception of 30 but had only 13 touches in the game despite leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage that season.

But, of course, the biggest fallacy this game created was a dreaded two-headed monster: the legend of Joe Namath and the time-mushroomed and, at the time, much-maligned "playoff guarantee." Sure, Namath backed up his boast of the Jets beating the mighty Colts 16-7, but he did so in pedestrian fashion ? 17-of-28 passing for 206 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The run game was the real hero, wearing down the overrated Colts defense and leading to all four scores.

This game often is labeled as a signpost for the shift of power from the bullying NFL to the once-measly AFL, but that was a brief run. After the merger, the AFC and NFC were far more balanced when you look at the league as a whole and not just at Super Bowl winners over the following decade.

Super Bowl III was mostly a bore ? perhaps significant at the time, but even historically speaking, it was surprisingly irrelevant upon closer inspection.



Underrated: Super Bowl XXXVIII

This one had it all. The story line heading in was the underdog-turned-favorite Patriots against the dog-turned-underdog Panthers, two seasons removed from 1-15. Early on, the Patriots' dominant defense looked impenetrable. I remember actually feeling badly for Jake Delhomme when he opened the game 1-for-9 passing and the Panthers' vaunted run game had been shut down. But the Patriots weren't doing much offensively, either, and the normally unflappable Adam Vinatieri had misfired on two short field goals (one was blocked).

As then-Panthers play-by-play announcer Bill Rosinski said, "This game is like Yale vs. Harvard in 1938 with leather helmets. It might be 6-0 when we get done today."

And then everything turned on its head.

Boston Herald columnist Gerry Callahan later would write, perfectly: "One of the greatest Super Bowls of all time broke out like a fistfight in the middle of morning Mass." It was true: In three dizzying minutes to close out the first half, the two teams went from a scoreless stalemate to a 14-10 game full of life. The action on the field was nasty and breathtaking. It was a close to a first half like we had never seen before or since ? and there would be more where that came from.

The third quarter mirrored the first, just like the indescribable fourth quarter mimicked the second. After knocking heads for another 15 minutes, the ebb turned and the Panthers and Patriots set off a final stanza for the ages ? a thrilling, Super Bowl-record 37 points, with each team one-upping the other before Vinatieri hit his second title-winning field goal in three years in the waning moments for a 32-29 Patriots victory.

No Super Bowl has had this kind of herky-jerky, vertigo-inducing waves of inertia and animation. The game made Tom Brady a full-fledged star, and it kicked off the Patriots' mini-dynasty. It also hardened the idea of the "team" concept, one that talent-driven owners such as Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones still have failed to recognize.

I also believe this was the first game where fans at large first began to turn against the Patriots, lifting the club to its secure perch near the top of the "most hated teams" lists anywhere west of Interstate 87 and south of Stamford, Conn. Despite the win, the Patriots no longer were America's darlings - the spunky Panthers stole that title, for a day anyway ? but instead became the reviled favorites they would be known as for the next five years. Of course, "Spygate" didn't hurt matters later.

 

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Overrated, underrated season-long fantasy stat

Overrated, underrated season-long fantasy stat

Overrated, underrated season-long fantasy stat

Subject: Season-long fantasy stat

Overrated: 1,000 yards rushing/receiving

For running backs and wide receivers, the benchmark for a good season long has been reaching 1,000 yards. From a fantasy perspective, though, a guy who hits the 1,000-yard mark isn't necessarily a valuable commodity. After all, that only averages out to 62.5 yards per game, which isn't a very good fantasy performance in and of itself. Too many owners will assume that a player had a solid season simply because he had 1,000 yards, but that isn't always true, especially if he doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. For example, Browns RB Jamal Lewis ran for 1,002 yards in 2008, but he had only four TDs and averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Those numbers barely ranked him in the top 25 fantasy performers at his position. While accumulating 1,000 yards is nothing to scoff at, it takes more than that to be a fantasy star.



Underrated: Number of 100-yard games

People like to evaluate a player's season by looking at his cumulative numbers at the end of the year ? carries, yards, touchdowns, etc. But those numerals don't tell the whole story. What if a guy had two or three monster outings and then was simply mediocre for the rest of the campaign? His final stat line might be impressive, but he was an effective fantasy player less than 20 percent of the time. A better way to measure both the production and consistency of a running back or receiver is to look at how many games of 100-plus yards he finished the season with. Besides the fact that many leagues reward bonus points for 100-yard performances, players racking up 100-yard games with regularity are consistently giving their owners solid fantasy totals, something that's often difficult to come by. It's no coincidence that the top three fantasy RBs from '08 ? DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson ? had eight, eight and 10 100-yard games, respectively.

 

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Overrated, underrated play-by-play announcers

Overrated, underrated play-by-play announcers

Overrated, underrated play-by-play announcers

12th in a series of overrated/underrated commentaries

Question: Which play-by-play announcer is overrated? Underrated?

Overrated: Dick Enberg, CBS

It feels criminal, bashing a legend. After all, Enberg?s career is about as storied as it gets. But he has lost his fastball as a football announcer, often slow to call out tacklers? names or recognize trends within games. Even his famed ?oh my!? seems to lack a little pizzazz, sometimes feeling unnatural and kitschy and done more now for effect and out of habit.

Enberg still has a terrific eye for history, can understand modern football and has maintained his signature voice. But his calls no longer have a big-game feel anymore, and it?s partly why he has been demoted to some of CBS? afterthought or second-rated games the past few seasons.



Underrated: Mike Tirico, ESPN

You could make the case that Tirico is ESPN?s most indispensable talent ? heck, with his radio show, he might be their best commodity ? right now. His NBA work is strong, and his golf calls are becoming legendary. But we sometimes forget how good a football announcer he is, as well. Almost no one can call down and distance, identify players and pick up on the subtleties of the game like Tirico, whose work this past season, I believe, was his finest hour.

While many ?Monday Night Football? critics chose to bash Tony Kornheiser and his sometimes shoehorn fit into the former three-man booth, I chose to tune in more closely to Tirico, who as much as perhaps any play-by-play guy today makes the game more watchable from an educational standpoint. His calls flow effortlessly, even when his network makes him wedge in some silly graphics or a ?SportsCenter? timeout. And he keeps things light with the occasional pop-culture or cross-sports reference, which, ironically, was part of the reason Kornheiser was added in the first place.

Sure, Joe Buck adds more opinion and color to his broadcasts, and Al Michaels remains the voice of his era with his precise and anecdotal broadcasts. But there must be a spot at or near the top for Tirico, who calls the game the way a great point guard runs an offense. And with Jon Gruden replacing Kornheiser alongside Ron Jaworski, Tirico will get his share of tasty assists this season.

 

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Overrated, underrated fantasy-league formats

Overrated, underrated fantasy-league formats

Overrated, underrated fantasy-league formats

Question: Which fantasy-league format is overrated? Underrated?

Overrated: IDP formats that too heavily weigh tackles

I have written in praise of IDP (individual defensive players) leagues before, and I am all for any format that gets fantasy owners to look beyond quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. However, here?s my qualm with most IDP formats: tackles are weighted too heavily.

In no way is an in-the-box strong safety or a cornerback who is having to make a lot of tackles because he?s routinely picked on more valuable than a pass rusher with a knack for notching sacks on key third downs or a lockdown man-cover corner who makes opponents pay the few times they throw to his side of the field, but this is the case in some IDP leagues. Again, this isn?t a knock on all IDP leagues, just those that overvalue tackles.



Underrated: TD-only formats

I don?t hear of many people participating in TD-only leagues anymore. Those that are still around are a nod to an earlier era, where scores were tallied by hand, waiver claims were left on the commissioner?s answering machine and ?The Red Zone Channel? was somebody?s far-out daydream. Perhaps that?s why I?ve always had a soft spot for this type of league.

Before folks obsessed about drafting receivers on the basis of how many times they were targeted and whether their running backs could also rack up a few extra points in the passing game, the operative question was this: Is Player X going to score more touchdowns than Player Y?

I?ve been in a big TD-only league with deep rosters, and I must say, every running back who might get a handful of goal-line carries in a given season was coming off the board. It was beautiful.

Listen, I know the major objection to this sort of league sounds something like this: ?But what if my receiver makes a 60-yard catch and gets tackled at the one-yard line?? My answer: Well, no points for you ? but don?t you have a story to tell?

 

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Overrated, underrated strategies for developing young QBs

Overrated, underrated strategies for developing young QBs

Overrated, underrated strategies for developing young QBs

Question: Which strategy for developing young QBs is overrated? Underrated?

Overrated: Treating a young QB with kid gloves

We are going to hear plenty of debate in the coming weeks regarding whether the Jets should hand QB Matt Sanchez the starting job, whether the Lions should put Matthew Stafford in the lineup right off the bat, and whether the Buccaneers should hand the offense to Josh Freeman.

Along the way, we will hear the names Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna quite a bit, because six years ago, the Bengals did something very unique: They sat Palmer, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft, on the bench all season and let Kitna take every snap. The next season, Palmer took the job, and we know the rest of the story: He's been a very, very good player, and the Bengals' careful handling is often cited as a major reason for his success.

That may be true, but you know what's more important? That Palmer has the gifts needed to succeed at the position. He could handle the transition to the professional level because he had the talent to do so, not because he stood and watched Kitna for 16 regular-season games. In fact, you could argue Palmer didn't get all that much out of his first season; it's not as if he was going to get much work with the first-team offense ? the lion's share goes to the starter.

Which brings me to my main point ?

Underrated: Full-scale immersion

? that it's silly to talk about young quarterbacks like they are all fragile creatures. Some quarterbacks can't handle playing in Year One; that's been made very clear over the years. Others have taken a terrible beating (think Tim Couch and David Carr).

But along the way, the very best and brightest who are thrust into the lineup early start to get their feet under them, start to show that, yes, they're going to be OK. The Steelers started the 2004 season with Ben Roethlisberger on the bench and employed a run-heavy attack to protect him once it became clear they could not keep him off the field. But he would have succeeded in any offense, what with his poise, strong arm and creativity on the run. The Ravens were scared of rushing Joe Flacco into the lineup last season, but Troy Smith's illness forced their hand. As it turned out, the kid was up to the job. Playing early didn't faze Joe Flacco because he had the physical ability and poise to succeed. The same can be said for Falcons QB Matt Ryan. The stage wasn't too big for them, and they are better for their experiences.

They could handle those experiences because they had the chops to do so. I don't know if Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman can make it in the NFL, but what I do know is this: Keeping them out of the lineup early doesn't necessarily mean they will benefit from the experience. Unless their veteran rivals are clearly better in training camp, the three first-round passers merit long looks this season. Better earlier than later that they start to learn on the job ? and that their teams learn what they have.

 

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Overrated, underrated handicapping angles

Overrated, underrated handicapping angles

Overrated, underrated handicapping angles

Question: Which handicapping angles are overrated? Underrated?

Overrated handicapping angle ? The ?must-win game?

Ah, the ?must-win game.? The phrase gets dusted off and trotted out late in every regular season. The scenario goes something like this: Team X is in playoff contention; Team Y is out of the postseason mix and (seemingly) looking toward next season. Therefore, the logic goes, motivated Team X should have no problems drubbing it?s-almost-time-to-go-clubbing-in-Vegas Team Y. Does the above scenario happen? Sure, it does, and handicappers can profit from it on occasion. But it is not a fail-safe angle, and it is one rife with risks. For one, you?re likely going to have to pay to play; lines for such ?must-win? games are usually inflated. Also, you have to strongly consider why a team is in a must-win situation. If you?re going to bet a team in desperate need of a victory, you better understand its flaws. And you better be able to assess the team?s current form. Is the team peaking, or is it a team whose best football was played in October? Making such accurate assessments can keep you away from backing clubs like the 2008 Jets and Broncos, both of whom started to go bad in the final weeks of the season and failed in situations where they looked to have clear motivation edges over their opponents.



Underrated handicapping angle ? Weather

There was a time when bad weather could have taken handicappers by surprise, but that was in the pre-Internet and pre-cable-TV age. Today?s savvy handicappers are assessing how weather could affect their prime plays days before the games are played. No, you don?t have to be an amateur meteorologist, but you should be regularly checking useful weather Web sites like weather.com and weatherunderground.com daily to gauge if the conditions will materially affect your handicapping. High winds in the forecast? You might want to pass on backing a passing team and set your sights on playing the Under. Weather can create some of the juiciest betting opportunities available for handicappers. The trick is sniffing them out and striking ? hopefully before it?s five minutes to game time, the line in the sports book is 20-deep and the value has evaporated.

 

[Dead Money]

Good stuff...

Good stuff...

pigskin season getting closer.....:00hour

 

[Lumi]