Overvalued and undervalued pitchers
- Thread starter tyro
- Start date
Good thread you started tyro. Personally, I think this will be very helpful, especially if members who have a good feel for specific teams they watch closely and root for give input.
I will be back with my views shortly...
I will be back with my views shortly...
Possible Overvalued Pitchers
In no particular order...
Randy Johnson ... still very good when healthy but not dominate plus the team is on the decline.
Estaban Loaiza ... decent pitcher coming off a career year playing with an average team.
Dontrelle Willis ... really came back to earth in the late part of last season and the playoffs ... not as good as people thought.
Andy Pettitte ... first off, let me say that I love Andy Pettitte, however, he is now a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park. He will still be very solid, however, he may be overvalued this year by the oddsmakers.
Johan Santana ... once again ... I love this guy and I even drafted him for my fantasy team, however, he had offseason surgery and has been struggling mightily in the pre-season. He may be overvalued in his first few starts being that he is the Twins new ACE.
Woody Williams ... another guy who had a tremendous first half in 2003 but faded down the stretch.
Sidney Ponson ... similar to Loaiza though not as good in my opinion ... a decent pitcher coming off a career year playing with an average though much improved team.
Most Atlanta Braves starters ... the Braves are not going to win the NL East this year and will likely finish 3rd behind the Phillies and defending champ Marlins. Pitching is marginal again and hitting has lost a lot since last year. Until the oddsmakers adjust, I will be playing against the Braves plenty.
Will be back with undervalued soon...
In no particular order...
Randy Johnson ... still very good when healthy but not dominate plus the team is on the decline.
Estaban Loaiza ... decent pitcher coming off a career year playing with an average team.
Dontrelle Willis ... really came back to earth in the late part of last season and the playoffs ... not as good as people thought.
Andy Pettitte ... first off, let me say that I love Andy Pettitte, however, he is now a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park. He will still be very solid, however, he may be overvalued this year by the oddsmakers.
Johan Santana ... once again ... I love this guy and I even drafted him for my fantasy team, however, he had offseason surgery and has been struggling mightily in the pre-season. He may be overvalued in his first few starts being that he is the Twins new ACE.
Woody Williams ... another guy who had a tremendous first half in 2003 but faded down the stretch.
Sidney Ponson ... similar to Loaiza though not as good in my opinion ... a decent pitcher coming off a career year playing with an average though much improved team.
Most Atlanta Braves starters ... the Braves are not going to win the NL East this year and will likely finish 3rd behind the Phillies and defending champ Marlins. Pitching is marginal again and hitting has lost a lot since last year. Until the oddsmakers adjust, I will be playing against the Braves plenty.
Will be back with undervalued soon...
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Possible Undervalued Pitchers
Jamie Moyer ... even though he is like 50 years old .. the guys just keep winning and seems to get better somehow.
Vincente Padilla ... in my opinion, the best pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wolf #2 and Millwood #3 for now. Millwood is not a staff ACE in my opinion and actually could be placed on my overvalued list although I think the Phillies will be a solid all-around team.
Carlos Zambrano ... this guy has great stuff ... according to Baker, the best stuff on a staff with Prior and Wood. Wow!
Jeff Suppan ... I just think this guy will be very solid for the Cardinals this year. Maybe a stretch but I actually think he could win 14-15 games.
Victor Zambrano ... very good young pitcher and the ACE of the D'Rays. Will be a good value play as a dog this season as evidenced by his opening day win over the Bronx Bombers.
Jeremy Bonderman ... see Zambrano above ... young pitcher who will get better and likely be a live dog even though the Tigers are not a very good team. They are young and improved Ivan Rodriguez will help the young staff tremendously.
Royals pitchers Darrell May, Jeremy Affeldt and ***** Anderson ... 3 good young pitchers who may be had at dog prices on a decent young team. Of course, I would not play them as big favorites but as small dogs or small favs, they should be worth the risk.
Most San Diego Padres Starters ... I think the Padres win the weak NL West division. They are a very improved team this year and there pitching is very solid if not spectacular. I like the rotation of youngsters Jake Peavy, ***** Lawrence, Adam Eaton and veteran David Wells.
That's all I got for now ... may add later if I think of anything.
Let's get some more input.
Lightning
:com:
Jamie Moyer ... even though he is like 50 years old .. the guys just keep winning and seems to get better somehow.
Vincente Padilla ... in my opinion, the best pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wolf #2 and Millwood #3 for now. Millwood is not a staff ACE in my opinion and actually could be placed on my overvalued list although I think the Phillies will be a solid all-around team.
Carlos Zambrano ... this guy has great stuff ... according to Baker, the best stuff on a staff with Prior and Wood. Wow!
Jeff Suppan ... I just think this guy will be very solid for the Cardinals this year. Maybe a stretch but I actually think he could win 14-15 games.
Victor Zambrano ... very good young pitcher and the ACE of the D'Rays. Will be a good value play as a dog this season as evidenced by his opening day win over the Bronx Bombers.
Jeremy Bonderman ... see Zambrano above ... young pitcher who will get better and likely be a live dog even though the Tigers are not a very good team. They are young and improved Ivan Rodriguez will help the young staff tremendously.
Royals pitchers Darrell May, Jeremy Affeldt and ***** Anderson ... 3 good young pitchers who may be had at dog prices on a decent young team. Of course, I would not play them as big favorites but as small dogs or small favs, they should be worth the risk.
Most San Diego Padres Starters ... I think the Padres win the weak NL West division. They are a very improved team this year and there pitching is very solid if not spectacular. I like the rotation of youngsters Jake Peavy, ***** Lawrence, Adam Eaton and veteran David Wells.
That's all I got for now ... may add later if I think of anything.
Let's get some more input.
Lightning
:com:
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I inadvertently deleted the list I posted when I started this thread. All that typing for nothing! Anyway, here it is again.
Undervalued pitchers:
Ted Lily - Toronto. Perhaps it's just that great game he pitched against the Sox in the playoffs. Now has the experience to put together a great season.
Jeremi Gonzalez - TB. Hping last year's performance not a fluke.
Darrell May - KC. Had a very good year last year, so perhaps won't be as "undervalued" as I'd like.
Maroth/Bonderman/Cornejo - Detroit. I think one of these guys will break out, but can't decide who.
Freddy Garcia - Seattle. Health problems behind him and should return to form.
John Thomsen - Atlanta. Loved this guy last year. Hopefully will be able to get him as a small fav.
Jason Jennings - Colorado. Hoping for a return to form after down year.
***** Lawrence/Adam Eaton - San Diego. Again, hoping for a return to form.
Other possibilities: Tomo Ohka - Montreal, Steve Sparks - Arizona.
Overvalued pitchers:
Pedro Martinez - Boston. Hate to say it, but I think there's money to be made going against Pedro.
Esteban Loaiza - ChiSox. Return to form this year.
***** Anderson - KC. Number one starter for KC. So-so pitcher with inflated record last year.
Josh Beckett/Dontrelle Willis. I think both of these guys will go off as big favs for most of their starts, particularly Beckett. Not convinced.
Kevin Millwood - Phils. Struggled at the end of last season.
Jeff Suppan - Cards. Will become clearer and clearer that the stint in Pittsburgh was a fluke. Looked awful with the Sox.
Josh Beckett/Dontrelle Willis - FL. Will go off as heavy favs. Not justified given their overall performances and general weakening of club.
Other possibilities: Kevin Brown and Greg Maddux, given their ages.
Undervalued pitchers:
Ted Lily - Toronto. Perhaps it's just that great game he pitched against the Sox in the playoffs. Now has the experience to put together a great season.
Jeremi Gonzalez - TB. Hping last year's performance not a fluke.
Darrell May - KC. Had a very good year last year, so perhaps won't be as "undervalued" as I'd like.
Maroth/Bonderman/Cornejo - Detroit. I think one of these guys will break out, but can't decide who.
Freddy Garcia - Seattle. Health problems behind him and should return to form.
John Thomsen - Atlanta. Loved this guy last year. Hopefully will be able to get him as a small fav.
Jason Jennings - Colorado. Hoping for a return to form after down year.
***** Lawrence/Adam Eaton - San Diego. Again, hoping for a return to form.
Other possibilities: Tomo Ohka - Montreal, Steve Sparks - Arizona.
Overvalued pitchers:
Pedro Martinez - Boston. Hate to say it, but I think there's money to be made going against Pedro.
Esteban Loaiza - ChiSox. Return to form this year.
***** Anderson - KC. Number one starter for KC. So-so pitcher with inflated record last year.
Josh Beckett/Dontrelle Willis. I think both of these guys will go off as big favs for most of their starts, particularly Beckett. Not convinced.
Kevin Millwood - Phils. Struggled at the end of last season.
Jeff Suppan - Cards. Will become clearer and clearer that the stint in Pittsburgh was a fluke. Looked awful with the Sox.
Josh Beckett/Dontrelle Willis - FL. Will go off as heavy favs. Not justified given their overall performances and general weakening of club.
Other possibilities: Kevin Brown and Greg Maddux, given their ages.
"Esteban Loaiza - ChiSox. Return to form this year. "
Be careful of playing against him in the beginning of the year. He's been a stud in April throughout his career. But after May, I agree that there should be some nice value against him.
Be careful of playing against him in the beginning of the year. He's been a stud in April throughout his career. But after May, I agree that there should be some nice value against him.
Eric Milton of the Phillies is a guy I would watch out for, esp. early. When healthy he was pretty damn good for the Twins, and now he'll be facing NL hitters that aren't used to seeing him.
==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
==== THREEE TIGERS PITCHERS WERE IN THE TOP ELEVEN GROUND/FLY BALL RATIO ....... I SPEAK OF CORNEJO, MAROTH, & BONDERMAN ! <p> WITH BETTER DEFENSE UP THE MIDDLE.... PUDGE BEHIND THE PLATE, GUILLEN AND VINA WITH GOOD GLOVES AND EXPERIENCE ....... <p> GREAT VALUE ON GRASS FIELDS IMHO !! ==== GLA ====
==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
==== THREEE TIGERS PITCHERS WERE IN THE TOP ELEVEN GROUND/FLY BALL RATIO ....... I SPEAK OF CORNEJO, MAROTH, & BONDERMAN ! <p> WITH BETTER DEFENSE UP THE MIDDLE.... PUDGE BEHIND THE PLATE, GUILLEN AND VINA WITH GOOD GLOVES AND EXPERIENCE ....... <p> GREAT VALUE ON GRASS FIELDS IMHO !! ==== GLA ====
Re: ==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
Re: ==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
Took the words right out of my mouth, Major! I look forward to some great prices on this staff!
Re: ==== "UNDERVALUED" ====
MAJOR MARTY said:
Took the words right out of my mouth, Major! I look forward to some great prices on this staff!
Another angle I will be interested in pursuing is going against Braves pitchers, particularly Ortiz and Hampton. These guys got great run support last year. Ortiz was 4th in the NL with 6.49 and Hampton was 9th with 5.59. (Reynolds was fifth and Ramirez was 8th as well.) With Sheffield, Lopez and Castillo gone, I think these guys will get significantly less support this year.
Exactly tyro.
Braves, if mid-heavy chalk will be a good go against.
Tigers as mid-heavy dogs will be good live dogs.
I think the Padres young guys (specifically Lawrence and Peavy and maybe Eaton) will be good small favs or maybe even small dogs who will be money makers.
Also, when did the first name "*****" become an inappropriate curse word.
:shrug:
Braves, if mid-heavy chalk will be a good go against.
Tigers as mid-heavy dogs will be good live dogs.
I think the Padres young guys (specifically Lawrence and Peavy and maybe Eaton) will be good small favs or maybe even small dogs who will be money makers.
Also, when did the first name "*****" become an inappropriate curse word.
:shrug:
Great idea for a thread. Here are my pix:
Overvalued:
Kaz Ishii
Could be wrong here but I always get very nervous when wathcing him pitch if I have $ on him. Just throws too many BB's for my liking and too many pitches overall. Dodgers have a great defensive infield and bullpen but I can just see this guy regressing big time this year. Plus the Dodgers offense doesn't look to be improved (actually looks worse on paper) so he still will not be getting much run support.
Ramon Ortiz
Many publications expect him to bounce back to his form of 2 seasons ago. I actually think he is closer to the Ortiz of last year then their Championship season. His achilles heel is giving up too many HR's. Don't think he will be as bad as last yr but I am not expecting him to win any most improved player award.
Woody Williams
Mostly a hunch here. I like his stuff but he has been injured alot the past 2.5 seasons and last year he threw alot of pitches since the STL bullpen was not very effective. I just see him being injured alot and/or wearing down in the 2nd half.
Undervalued:
Odalis Perez
Really think he will be the ace of the staff this year. He regressed last year a bit but I love his stuff and he is still young. He did have 2 extremely bad outings last year that made his overall ERA maybe look a bit worse than it should have. I will probably be backing him early alot if the spot looks good and the price is right so sure hope I am right.
Tom Glavine
Another pitcher I think will be much improved from last year. Pitched much better in the last 2 months of the season and I think he will do very well this year. He does pitch in a great pitchers park and think he will take advantage of it this year. Also don't think the Braves will beat up on him as bad as they did last year since they lost some key bats and really took it to Glavine last year.
Steve Trachsel
Only reason I list him is that he seems to be undervalued every year. Just a good all-around pitcher who does not make alot of mistakes. Might be a bad idea listing 2 Met pitchers but I actually like what the mets are doing now as opposed to the decisions they have made the last few seasons. Might not show up too much in the win column this year but I really like the direction this team is headed.
Jeremi Gonzalez
Yeah the Yankees killed him but they kill everyone. This guy did not receive much run support last year (3.9 per game). However the rays are another team headed in the right direction and he has a very speedy outfield to help him with balls in play. Won't be dominant but will be a dog most often and see him being a steady contributor.
Ben Sheets
Gotta make one homer pick. I don't think he will ever be one of the better pitchers in the league. But he is still only 24 and I think he will be one of the best of the 2nd tier pitchers this season. Another guy that will be a dog most times out. But he will get several starts vs PIT and CIN and those 2 are about as bad as the brewers are.
Overvalued:
Kaz Ishii
Could be wrong here but I always get very nervous when wathcing him pitch if I have $ on him. Just throws too many BB's for my liking and too many pitches overall. Dodgers have a great defensive infield and bullpen but I can just see this guy regressing big time this year. Plus the Dodgers offense doesn't look to be improved (actually looks worse on paper) so he still will not be getting much run support.
Ramon Ortiz
Many publications expect him to bounce back to his form of 2 seasons ago. I actually think he is closer to the Ortiz of last year then their Championship season. His achilles heel is giving up too many HR's. Don't think he will be as bad as last yr but I am not expecting him to win any most improved player award.
Woody Williams
Mostly a hunch here. I like his stuff but he has been injured alot the past 2.5 seasons and last year he threw alot of pitches since the STL bullpen was not very effective. I just see him being injured alot and/or wearing down in the 2nd half.
Undervalued:
Odalis Perez
Really think he will be the ace of the staff this year. He regressed last year a bit but I love his stuff and he is still young. He did have 2 extremely bad outings last year that made his overall ERA maybe look a bit worse than it should have. I will probably be backing him early alot if the spot looks good and the price is right so sure hope I am right.
Tom Glavine
Another pitcher I think will be much improved from last year. Pitched much better in the last 2 months of the season and I think he will do very well this year. He does pitch in a great pitchers park and think he will take advantage of it this year. Also don't think the Braves will beat up on him as bad as they did last year since they lost some key bats and really took it to Glavine last year.
Steve Trachsel
Only reason I list him is that he seems to be undervalued every year. Just a good all-around pitcher who does not make alot of mistakes. Might be a bad idea listing 2 Met pitchers but I actually like what the mets are doing now as opposed to the decisions they have made the last few seasons. Might not show up too much in the win column this year but I really like the direction this team is headed.
Jeremi Gonzalez
Yeah the Yankees killed him but they kill everyone. This guy did not receive much run support last year (3.9 per game). However the rays are another team headed in the right direction and he has a very speedy outfield to help him with balls in play. Won't be dominant but will be a dog most often and see him being a steady contributor.
Ben Sheets
Gotta make one homer pick. I don't think he will ever be one of the better pitchers in the league. But he is still only 24 and I think he will be one of the best of the 2nd tier pitchers this season. Another guy that will be a dog most times out. But he will get several starts vs PIT and CIN and those 2 are about as bad as the brewers are.
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Good stuff on here. One thing about Loaiza; he did add a new pitch to his repertoire last year, and that was a big reason for his success. True, he isn't likely to duplicate 21 wins, but I don't expect him to regress to the 11 win seasons of the past.
