TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARIZONA
11-1 vs good pass defence (allow < 5.75 pya)
22-44 as fave; 2-12 as HF
4-10 as HD < 7
20-37 off ATS win
22-45 at home
2-11 in 2nd BB home (Oreg, USC)
2-8 before bye (Wisc, USC)
21-11-1 after bye (Wash St, Ariz St)
Wash St series dog 7-3-1
5-11 road open (UCLA)
2-8 vs Oreg
4-12 vs Cal
Oreg St series fave 7-1
5-1 vs Wash
2-9 before Ariz St (USC)
0-10 final home (Ariz St); 4-9 vs Ariz St; series host 2-10
ARIZONA STATE
10-4 as HD < 7
8-3 vs poor defence (allow > 425 ypg)
1-10 as RD
4-12 as dog
3-9 conf road
7-3 non-conf host
12-2-1 as HD or HF < 3
0-6 road open (N?Westrn)
1-7 before Oreg St (Iowa)
2-8-2 conf open (Oreg St); series host 6-0
7-2 vs Oreg
2-7 before bye (Oreg, Wash St)
12-4 after bye (USC, Ariz)
7-2-1 vs UCLA
Cal series dog 6-3
1-5 vs Stanf
Wash St series fave 8-0-1
6-0 at Ariz; 10-2 final road
CALIFORNIA
16-32 as fave
8-2 off road loss
11-20 when line +3 to -3
6-3 vs non-conf
2-12 as RF
14-3 as HD > 5
1-11-1 as conf RF
5-11 vs Oreg St; 9-3-1 after bye
7-2 vs USC
12-4-1 vs UCLA; series dog 6-1
12-4 vs Ariz; series dog 13-2
2-7 vs Oreg; 3-7-1 in 2nd BB home
5-1 vs Wash
Stanf series dog 8-3; series host 1-7
OREGON
10-3 vs good offence (avg >450 ypg)
24-8 when line +3 to -3
13-5 after 2 or more SU wins
5-10 as HF
4-10 vs WAC (Nevada)
8-3 vs Big 10
7-3 home open (Indiana)
18-5 road open (Okla)
10-4 on grass (Okla, Stanf)
17-3 conf open (Ariz St); 2-7 vs Ariz St
5-1 conf road open (Wash St)
10-3 vs Ariz; 1-5 in HC game
5-9 vs Wash
7-2 vs Cal
UCLA series vis 10-3
4-12 vs Oreg St; series vis 1-6
OREGON STATE
8-2 vs good offence (avg > 450 ypg)
19-8 as HF; 16-3 as HF < 17
18-6 conf host
1-10 as RF
1-4 non-conf road
6-2 non-conf host
9-2 off BB SU losses
0-8 in 1st of BB road (LSU)
1-8 on grass (LSU, Ariz St, Ariz, Stanf)
2-7 road open (LSU)
2-11 in 2nd BB road (Boise); 4-9 vs WAC (Boise)
Ariz St series host 15-1-1
11-4 before bye (Cal)
7-2 after bye (Wash); Wash series vis 11-4
Wash St series fave 9-3
5-18 vs USC
10-4-1 vs Stanf; 8-3 before Oreg
5-0 final home (Oreg); 7-1 host Oreg
STANFORD
2-10 vs good run defence (allow < 90 ypg)
13-23 as HF; 2-11 as DD HF
9-4 as HD
3-14 off upset loss
14-7 conf host
3-7-1 as DD dog
10-3 before conf open (BYU)
USC series SU winner 8-0
6-16-1 vs Wash; 10-2-1 home after USC
2-7 vs N Dame
5-11 on turf (Wash St, Cal)
13-6 vs Wash St
11-3-2 vs UCLA
5-1 vs Ariz St
3-8 vs Oreg St; 12-2 before Cal
12-2 final road (Cal); series host 2-10
UCLA
2-10 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
1-10 off conf loss
8-18 vs team with lose record
11-25-4 vs conf; 8-20-1 conf road
5-11-4 as HF
25-11-1 vs non-conf; 11-6 non-conf road
2-9 road vs opp < .500
9-1 home open (Okla St)
4-9 vs Big 10 (Illinois)
6-0-1 vs Wash
7-3-1 before bye (Wash, Oreg)
9-2-1 vs SD St
4-12-1 vs Cal; series dog 6-1-1
2-7-1 vs Ariz St; series host 5-1
3-11-2 vs Stanf
Wash St series host 6-1
Oreg series vis 10-3; 1-6-1 final road
0-5 vs USC
USC
15-2 vs good rush defence (allow < 120 ypg)
5-14 vs good rush offence (avg > 200 ypg)
19-5 vs conf; 9-3 conf host
21-9 as fave; 9-3 as RF
2-12 non-conf HF > 12
14-1 off BB SU wins
2-12 as HF off SU fave loss
7-0 road open (Va Tech)
11-2 in 2nd BB road (BYU, Oreg St)
7-3 before bye (Col St, Stanf)
4-10-1 vs Cal
8-3 vs Wash
6-5 vs Wash St
15-7 on turf (Wash St, Oreg St)
15-4 vs Oreg St
Ariz series fave 7-2
6-2 vs N Dame; 7-1 final home
6-1 vs UCLA
WASHINGTON
11-43 when allow > 28 pts
9-18 vs teams with lose record
6-14 as fave
11-21 after 3 or more SU wins
13-5 non-conf host
1-5 as RD > 9
3-7 as DD HF
3-6 non-conf road
16-3 as home pick or dog
3-16-1 as conf HF
0-11 as conf DD fave
0-6-1 vs UCLA; 2-7-1 conf open
2-9 on grass (N Dame, Stanf, USC)
13-6-1 vs Stanf
Oreg St series vis 7-3
3-8 vs USC
1-5 vs Ariz
2-7 vs Cal; 3-8-1 before Wash St
3-9 final road (Wash St)
WASHINGTON STATE
9-3 as dog
8-3 as RD
5-0 off conf loss
6-0 after SU loss
7-3 road open (New Mex)
12-4 on grass (New Mex, Ariz, UCLA, Ariz St)
5-1 vs Big 12 (Colorado)
Ariz series vis 8-3-1; 2-5 after bye
12-3 conf home open (Oreg); 1-7 before Stanf; 3-17 after Ariz
2-10 vs Stanf
Oreg St series fave 9-3
UCLA series host 6-1
5-0 before Wash (Ariz St); Ariz St series fave 8-0-1
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARIZONA
11-1 vs good pass defence (allow < 5.75 pya)
22-44 as fave; 2-12 as HF
4-10 as HD < 7
20-37 off ATS win
22-45 at home
2-11 in 2nd BB home (Oreg, USC)
2-8 before bye (Wisc, USC)
21-11-1 after bye (Wash St, Ariz St)
Wash St series dog 7-3-1
5-11 road open (UCLA)
2-8 vs Oreg
4-12 vs Cal
Oreg St series fave 7-1
5-1 vs Wash
2-9 before Ariz St (USC)
0-10 final home (Ariz St); 4-9 vs Ariz St; series host 2-10
ARIZONA STATE
10-4 as HD < 7
8-3 vs poor defence (allow > 425 ypg)
1-10 as RD
4-12 as dog
3-9 conf road
7-3 non-conf host
12-2-1 as HD or HF < 3
0-6 road open (N?Westrn)
1-7 before Oreg St (Iowa)
2-8-2 conf open (Oreg St); series host 6-0
7-2 vs Oreg
2-7 before bye (Oreg, Wash St)
12-4 after bye (USC, Ariz)
7-2-1 vs UCLA
Cal series dog 6-3
1-5 vs Stanf
Wash St series fave 8-0-1
6-0 at Ariz; 10-2 final road
CALIFORNIA
16-32 as fave
8-2 off road loss
11-20 when line +3 to -3
6-3 vs non-conf
2-12 as RF
14-3 as HD > 5
1-11-1 as conf RF
5-11 vs Oreg St; 9-3-1 after bye
7-2 vs USC
12-4-1 vs UCLA; series dog 6-1
12-4 vs Ariz; series dog 13-2
2-7 vs Oreg; 3-7-1 in 2nd BB home
5-1 vs Wash
Stanf series dog 8-3; series host 1-7
OREGON
10-3 vs good offence (avg >450 ypg)
24-8 when line +3 to -3
13-5 after 2 or more SU wins
5-10 as HF
4-10 vs WAC (Nevada)
8-3 vs Big 10
7-3 home open (Indiana)
18-5 road open (Okla)
10-4 on grass (Okla, Stanf)
17-3 conf open (Ariz St); 2-7 vs Ariz St
5-1 conf road open (Wash St)
10-3 vs Ariz; 1-5 in HC game
5-9 vs Wash
7-2 vs Cal
UCLA series vis 10-3
4-12 vs Oreg St; series vis 1-6
OREGON STATE
8-2 vs good offence (avg > 450 ypg)
19-8 as HF; 16-3 as HF < 17
18-6 conf host
1-10 as RF
1-4 non-conf road
6-2 non-conf host
9-2 off BB SU losses
0-8 in 1st of BB road (LSU)
1-8 on grass (LSU, Ariz St, Ariz, Stanf)
2-7 road open (LSU)
2-11 in 2nd BB road (Boise); 4-9 vs WAC (Boise)
Ariz St series host 15-1-1
11-4 before bye (Cal)
7-2 after bye (Wash); Wash series vis 11-4
Wash St series fave 9-3
5-18 vs USC
10-4-1 vs Stanf; 8-3 before Oreg
5-0 final home (Oreg); 7-1 host Oreg
STANFORD
2-10 vs good run defence (allow < 90 ypg)
13-23 as HF; 2-11 as DD HF
9-4 as HD
3-14 off upset loss
14-7 conf host
3-7-1 as DD dog
10-3 before conf open (BYU)
USC series SU winner 8-0
6-16-1 vs Wash; 10-2-1 home after USC
2-7 vs N Dame
5-11 on turf (Wash St, Cal)
13-6 vs Wash St
11-3-2 vs UCLA
5-1 vs Ariz St
3-8 vs Oreg St; 12-2 before Cal
12-2 final road (Cal); series host 2-10
UCLA
2-10 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
1-10 off conf loss
8-18 vs team with lose record
11-25-4 vs conf; 8-20-1 conf road
5-11-4 as HF
25-11-1 vs non-conf; 11-6 non-conf road
2-9 road vs opp < .500
9-1 home open (Okla St)
4-9 vs Big 10 (Illinois)
6-0-1 vs Wash
7-3-1 before bye (Wash, Oreg)
9-2-1 vs SD St
4-12-1 vs Cal; series dog 6-1-1
2-7-1 vs Ariz St; series host 5-1
3-11-2 vs Stanf
Wash St series host 6-1
Oreg series vis 10-3; 1-6-1 final road
0-5 vs USC
USC
15-2 vs good rush defence (allow < 120 ypg)
5-14 vs good rush offence (avg > 200 ypg)
19-5 vs conf; 9-3 conf host
21-9 as fave; 9-3 as RF
2-12 non-conf HF > 12
14-1 off BB SU wins
2-12 as HF off SU fave loss
7-0 road open (Va Tech)
11-2 in 2nd BB road (BYU, Oreg St)
7-3 before bye (Col St, Stanf)
4-10-1 vs Cal
8-3 vs Wash
6-5 vs Wash St
15-7 on turf (Wash St, Oreg St)
15-4 vs Oreg St
Ariz series fave 7-2
6-2 vs N Dame; 7-1 final home
6-1 vs UCLA
WASHINGTON
11-43 when allow > 28 pts
9-18 vs teams with lose record
6-14 as fave
11-21 after 3 or more SU wins
13-5 non-conf host
1-5 as RD > 9
3-7 as DD HF
3-6 non-conf road
16-3 as home pick or dog
3-16-1 as conf HF
0-11 as conf DD fave
0-6-1 vs UCLA; 2-7-1 conf open
2-9 on grass (N Dame, Stanf, USC)
13-6-1 vs Stanf
Oreg St series vis 7-3
3-8 vs USC
1-5 vs Ariz
2-7 vs Cal; 3-8-1 before Wash St
3-9 final road (Wash St)
WASHINGTON STATE
9-3 as dog
8-3 as RD
5-0 off conf loss
6-0 after SU loss
7-3 road open (New Mex)
12-4 on grass (New Mex, Ariz, UCLA, Ariz St)
5-1 vs Big 12 (Colorado)
Ariz series vis 8-3-1; 2-5 after bye
12-3 conf home open (Oreg); 1-7 before Stanf; 3-17 after Ariz
2-10 vs Stanf
Oreg St series fave 9-3
UCLA series host 6-1
5-0 before Wash (Ariz St); Ariz St series fave 8-0-1
