Pac-10 Week 1

[bgold13]

Season 0-1
Cal was surprisingly tough on offense in preseason game vs KSU

This week's slate
AUBURN -3.5 vs usc
CAL -4 vs So Mis
WASH +9 vs Ohio st
ORE- 4 vd Miss st
UTEP +22 vs Arizona

CAL -4 vs So Miss

We all saw waht Cal could do last week, So Miss must replce Nix and at least 3 OL from last years offense and Micky Da'Angelo will start at QB for SM. Thats a lot to overcome, CAL is tough at Strawberry Canyon and I like Cal to easily cover this game
PLAY : CAL -4

ORE -4 at Mis St

Tough road setting for the Ducks and losing Onterrio Smith to the NFL will slow the ground game significatly. However the ducks have in my opinioin the bestWR in the pac (alright slighly worse than the williams's) MSU has never really passed that well and thats how you beat Oregon. Ducks will win and cover because MSU cant shootout.. PLAY ORE -4

UTEP +22 vs Arizona

This is a tough game to cap especially with the uncertainty of the Wildcats program. Andrae Thurman hte teams starting WR learned last week is Academically Ineligible, couple tha with a graduating qb and the worst running game in the pac last year its spells nightmare for the Cats. However, every year one team surprises from this conferance, but I dont think its UA, my guess is Stanford. UTEP is not good people, thats my first warning, but this is a game they think they can win, they wont but they can and UA wins by 14
PLAY UTEP +22

Ohio St -9 vs Washington
Showcase game number 1, if you must play it take the points. I am not huge on the Washington bandwagon, but I do think that they can score on the Buckeye defense more than what is expected. No Clarrett obviosuly and a big bullseye placed on the Buckeyes to repeat. This spread should be about 5.5 to 6, I will play the Huskies small

Auburn -3.5 vs USC

Do you really need to bet this game? As Vin Scully would say grab a chair and join us for a while. In addition grab a cold one and enjoy classic college football. OK this is a gambling forum, USC is overrated blah blah blah, i've heard that 100 times this offseason, and is Matt Leinart the man to replace Carson. These questions wont be answered in one game, but as long as USC defense is up to the tall and physical task of the TIgers, they will hang around. THis could be one of those 10-9 games, if thats the case take the points. I dont think Auburn will rollover in their own crib, and I think they scratch out and cover the cheddar in this one. I will play Auburn real small at -3.5

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff! I will be following the PAC-10 closely now that I am in Arizona. I think the Wildcats will have a tough time this year and getting 22pts. is very tempting. GL

HORNS

 

[mjbarley]

bgold,

I only have one Pac-10 game I'm playing this week, and it looks like I'll be on the other side of the Cal game from you. True, Cal did look good (at least offensively) against K St, and they've got the angle that teams show the most improvement from week 1 to week 2 going for them, but I'll be on S Miss and here's why.

I think this game should be a pick 'em, but most college football fans watched Cal last week, and now have them a little overrated. Tedford is a good coach, and Robertson does look comfortable at QB, but this S Miss defense is much better than K St, especially at defending the pass. S Miss will put more pressure on the QB, and Cal won't have WRs running free like it's the spring game scrimmage.

On the other side, S Miss is nothing special, but at least D'Angelo is experienced and shouldn't do anything to hurt S Miss. Cal's defense didn't really show me anything against K St, and should have lots of problems early in the season.

I think the real value in this game is the under, as neither offense will find it easy to get to the end zone, but I'll be on S Miss for 1* and the under for 2*

S Miss wins 20-17.

good luck on the other plays, though!

 

[bgold13]

MJ- I love hearing other sides to my plays, the more the input the better.
I considered CAL as an "inflatted" line after playing in front of a national audience starving for football. I start the year tkaing a guess at what each team will do and I had Cal losing by 5 td's to KState and then coming back and being a 5 point favorite to so miss. I think your point about the game going under is definitly a valid point. CAL expierienced maybe the best offense in hte country and then they get so miss who has never really been confused with a type of team like nevada or boise known for offenese. You are right about SO MIss defense being better than KSU's. I dont think the Eagles will score too many points and no defense can totally contain Cal as evident with USC last year. I still like CAL pretty big in this one... but will consider an under if the total comes in

 

[ststrl]

UofA had such a $hit running game last year cause Jason Johnson was throwing for like 400yds a game and Clarence Farmer was basically out all year. W/ Farmer back....uhh to some extent and Beau Carr and other decent back up RB's TRUST me, UofA will do more running this year. That being said UofA still blows, and UTEP is MISERABLE. I am kinda skeptical on UofA covering here. A win yes that is odvious, but I see more of a final score in the 28 - 14 range.

As a UofA alumni and a frequent visitor to numerous UofA chat boards, many bigtime UofA fans are kinda shakey on us covering here too. I think a small to medium wager here on UTEP +22 is a great play. Don't lay the wood, but something small, maybe to offset some loses, I mean make more moeny from your earlier wins, would be a great play :toast:

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great discussion guys and solid info as always!

HORNS

 

[bgold13]

i thought farmer was in the s$ithouse with coach mack.. I though Mike Bell the freshman was going to be running for them and I do know that they wont be naming a starting qb until kickoff

 

[ststrl]

i thought farmer was in the s$ithouse with coach mack.. I though Mike Bell the freshman was going to be running for them and I do know that they wont be naming a starting qb until kickoff

Yes Farner is in coach Macks $hithouse, but the former PAC-10 rusher of the year is too good to bench. Mike Bell is a stud, I forgot to mention him, however what I am hearing is that Beau Carr really did well in spring/summer practice. And I'm pretty danm sure that Nic Costa is going to be starting on Sat, don't quote me but I heard its all but forsure Costa will be starting. However Ryan O'Hara is the future. Yeah UofA has a week football program, but look out for O'Hara I guarentee he'll make a name for himself while in Tucson. Word is Ryan wll be ste starter come week 4.

 

[ststrl]

Hey BG, I really like my card this weekend. Check it out....

BYU -3.5
Wisco -3 BIG
Mizzou -3.5 HUGE
UCONN -5.5
UTEP +22

GL, Dodger games gonna be fun you should come.

 

[bgold13]

seeing your on utep this week too against your team must mean its really sweet... going bigger on UTEP

 

[ststrl]

Hey BG, I really like my card this weekend. Check it out....

BYU -3.5
Wisco -3 BIG
Mizzou -3.5 HUGE
UCONN -5.5
UTEP +22

GL, Dodger games gonna be fun you should come.

4-4 Thus far, taking some advice from some guys here and adding...

North Texas -32 :toast:

 

[deportes]

cal o/U 50 under -170 taking the under 50 1 unit. Thanks for the info.

 

[bjfinste]

ststrl, nice day you have going so far. I'm also assuming you're on North Texas +32. I never have a clue about the west coast teams so I appreciate the posts from guys like you and bgold13. Good luck the rest of the weekend!

 

[ststrl]

ststrl, nice day you have going so far. I'm also assuming you're on North Texas +32. I never have a clue about the west coast teams so I appreciate the posts from guys like you and bgold13. Good luck the rest of the weekend!

Anytime buddy, BGold13 is literally the PAC-10 guru on this board. Some guys may be right week in week out on certain PAC teams but nobody has the entire PAC on lock down better than BG :toast:

 

[bgold13]

Thanks ststrl- nice words from the master of finding undervalued unknoown teams.. and uconn certainly rolled

i was very dissapointed with the results of my plays this week but what is confirmed in my beliefs is that Washington is very overrated, we still saw no run game and a defense that is very soft, pretty much the only weak link of the day for the pac

Oregon was as expected, covered in a shootout and have disgusting uniforms to the point they are unwatchable

Arizona- WOW... UTEP must be really $hitty or UA may be ok.. a little bit of both i suspect.. mike bell ran with authority

CAL- more respect for Tedford.. this guy is the man... so miss still has NO OFFENSE.. Nice under play deportes

USC- I for one still have questions about the secondary... but when you have a front 4 like they have it really doesnt matter.. they are scary and did anybody notice Hershel Dennis from last year? He must have put on 25 pounds of muscle, most of it on his calfs.

STAN- Lost to UC DAVIS in scrimmage.. ouch

WSU- defense couldbe real deal in shutting out idaho, even though i thouhgt idaho beat them until this morning thanks to yahoo scoreboard

UCLA
ASU NICE SCHEDULING IDIOTS.. way to miss hte opening week party and ASU has another 2 weeks off with 1aa next week and utah st the following.. bad scheduling