Pac's Props - Week 10

[PacMan]

Forum Total: 15-12-2 (+6.2 Units) Started Week 8
Last Week: 10-8 (+4.0 Units)

Sunday night's picks

Ray Lucas Passing Yards
Under 199.5 -115 (2.3 Units to win 2 Units) - GameDay

Miami should try to establish the run, based on the the prior performances of Ray Lucas and the Jets defense. Plus, Lucas hasn't thrown for 199.5 in either of his first two games, and is playing injured.

Possibly more to come...

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Hey PAC, what do you think about that PROP putting Ricky Williams up against Curtis Martin tonite and giving 22 yards taking Ricky? I think MIAMI has the superior running game, but is 22 yards too many in your or anyone elses opinion?

 

[PacMan]

Hey PAC, what do you think about that PROP putting Ricky Williams up against Curtis Martin tonite and giving 22 yards taking Ricky? I think MIAMI has the superior running game, but is 22 yards too many in your or anyone elses opinion?

Funny, I was just eyeballing Curtis Martin +21.5 +110 at Olympic... Will probably play it, as Ricky averaging 3.1 yds/run last four games, and Jets should be keying in on him and making Lucas try to win it with his arm.

 

[PacMan]

Ray Lucas first pass
Complete -140 (1.4 Units to win 1 Unit) - GameDay

I have to think that Miami will start off slow with Lucas to try to build up his confidence. Last game vs. the Packers, most passes were short, high percentage (well, for most QBs) passes.

 

[PacMan]

Ray Lucas vs. Chad Pennington passing yards
Pennington -30.5 -110 (2.2 Units to win 2 Units) - GameDay

Lucas is averaging 5.0 yds/att. Pennington just over 8. Jets average pass is 7.28 yards vs. 7.18 for their opponents. Miami average pass is 6.58 yards vs. opponents 6.97.

 

[PacMan]

Total Sacks
Under 4.5 -120 (2.4 Units to win 2) - VIP

Jets have been sacked 20 times and have sacked opponents 12 times for a 4 sack/game average. Miami has sacked opponents 20 times and has been sacked 12 times for a 4 sack/game average. There should be a fair amount of running as well, making this bet worth it.

 

[PacMan]

Receptions by Chris Chambers
Over 4.5 (-110) (4.4 units to win 4 Units) - GameDay

Who else is Lucas (or Sage for that matter) going to throw to? His other starting WR has six catches this season, catching three in his only start. Dedric Ward is averagint 1.5 receptions a game. Cris Carter won't be playing. That leaves McMichael, whose best game was five catches, and Ricky, who should get a few catches as usual. Miami will have to throw the ball on occasion to win this game, and Chambers is their go-to guy.

 

[PacMan]

Will D Abraham Have INT
Yes +200 (1 Unit to win 2 Units) - VIP

If you bet this at these odds every game for Abraham over the past four seasons (including this season), you would have won money each season. Add in the fact that Lucas has 6 INTs in 2 starts means this has value.

 

[PacMan]

Another Bad Sunday

Another Bad Sunday

Abraham almost picked off first pass of game, then did get a pick to have it called back by penalty. Chambers had the TD catch reversed, which would have made it closer.

Last night: 1-5 (-9.3 Units)

MONDAY NIGHT PROPS
Nice opportunity for a win/push middle to start it off.

Total Sacks
Over 4 -165 (4.95 Units to win 3 Units) - Olympic
Under 5 +110 (3 Units to win 3.3 Units) - VIP

Denver has had five games at 4 or 5 sacks this year, Oakland has had four.

More coming...

 

[PacMan]

No guarantees, but...

No guarantees, but...

Found a very nice angle on this one.
Score in first 6.5 minutes
No +120 (2 Units to win 2.4 Units) - VIP

In 8 Oakland games, only twice has there been a score in the first 6:30 of play. They were in weeks 1 and 3, and in week 3, it was a 1 play 17 yard drive right after the kickoff, then two punt return TDs.

 

[PacMan]

Portis vs. Garner rushing yards
Portis -17 -175 (3.5 Units to win 2 Units) - Olympic

Garner has topped 61 yards only twice (none in last four games), and is hurt. Portis is averaging nearly 90 yards rushing in the last four games. Plus, Denver's run D is a little better.

 

[PacMan]

Either team score three consecutive times
No +170 (1 Unit to win 1.7 Units) - GameDay

If you bet this on every Denver game and every Oakland game this season, you'd be 7-9.

Gannon vs. Griese Passing Yards
Gannon -26.5 -110 (3.3 Units to win 3 Units) - GameDay

What a terrible line! Same book has:
Gannon O272.5 -135
Griese O232.5 -120

Um, am I missing something???

 

[PacMan]

A "What the Hell" play

A "What the Hell" play

Total Sacks in Game
Over 4.5 +100 (2 Units to win 2 Units) - GameDay
Under 5.0 +110 (2 Units to win 2.2 Units) - VIP

Can't lose, can win. I like those bets!

I believe in the 16 total games these two have played this season, it was 5 that had exactly 5 sacks. I already threw the numbers away, but I'm pretty sure that's right.

 

[PacMan]

Score last two minutes of first half
No +200 (1 Unit to win 2 Units) - VIP

Each team has had 3 games this season not have a score in the last two minutes of the first half.

 

[PacMan]

Tim Brown Receptions
Under 6 +110 (2 Units to win 2.2) - VIP

If you bet this every game this year, you'd be 4-2-2. Even in Gannon's last three 30+ completion game, he's 1-1-1 under 6.

 

[PacMan]

1st Quarter Spread
Denver -0.5 even (2 Units to win 2 Units) - Olympic

Denver would have covered this line 6 of 8 times so far this year.