Pencilling in (Week 8)

[TheShrimp]

I suppose I should say "inking in". I've already played these first three because I'm worried about the ML's dropping and the 10.5 going up, but don't want to hand them out as recommendations (to all my followers :lol: :lol: ) just yet.

Jax -10.5 (-115)
KC +145
DEN +140

Slight leans:
DET +7.5
CHI +1
BAL +3
NYG +7

Houston really hasn't shown they can stay with anybody. Against a quality team like JAX, it shouldn't be this close. I think within a few weeks, they'll be getting 13 from the mediocre teams and maybe 17 from the good ones.

KC and DEN I like the moneylines. Gotta believe at least one of them wins.

Really don't like much that's out there just yet. Still need to mull it over a bit.

For record keeping: 28-20-1 +7.30 YTD

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Not that stats mean everything, but take a look at the box score from the Cleveland/Houston game. It was alot closer than the score. Houston should start to come around and they will have some value as the season progresses.

 

[TheShrimp]

You're right, and if you've seen my threads at all, I rarely play a fave.

The O-line of HOU is just terrible and I think sacks kill scoring as much as anything. Carr can put up a lot of yards and a lot of first downs, but it just takes one sack on a drive to force that punt.

On the other hand, they can't get to the QB and Jax has protected Brunell this year. I think they pick Houston apart, like the Bills did, but hopefully give up fewer points.

Besides that, the line just look small. They were getting 9 from dall in week 1, 12.5 from SD in week 2, 12 from INDY at HOME in wk 3, 20 against the eagles, 9 against CLE. They were even getting 7.5 from the Bills at home who has received no respect from the lines makers. I don't think 10.5 is enough. Maybe more like 13.

JAX is no joke. They lost a squeaker to INDY, but beat PHI, killed the jets, and beat KC at KC. Lost to tenn and a tough ravens squad.

That's really the only line I'm thinking about betting this week and I don't feel as great about it as some other ones.

GL

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding :

Colts PK (1.1 -> 1)

 

[TheShrimp]

And:
ZONA +8.5 (1.1 -> 1)

[lines from sia]

 

[TheShrimp]

Final plays:
KC +145 (1 -> 1.45)
DEN +140 (1 -> 1.40)
JAX -10.5 (1.15 -> 1)
ZONA +8.5 (1.1 -> 1)
INDY PK (1.1 -> 1)

----------
I like DEN at +140. I think that has come down a bit by now. I don't think I like them as much with the points at -110.

I like KC with the points and SU.

I think ZONA hangs with SF all game. Might even have a shot at the win at end.

Also, I did bet a little on EVERY under this week. I think we're at the start of a down turn in scoring but the lines are still way up because of the early season hot start. A lot of these have come down from when I got them, so someone's on them.

tb 35.5
pitt 37.5
den 47
nyg 37.5
hou 38
zona 41
sea 37.5
tenn 41
det 50
cle 41.5
atl 47.5
chi 46
oak 55.5
indy 46.5

and a couple more plays I like, but not super strong...
CIN +6
ATL +5

 

[TheShrimp]

Recap: 2-3 -.5
YTD: 30-23-1 +6.8 (56.6% -- with ML selections)



Final plays:
KC +145 (1 -> 1.45) W
DEN +140 (1 -> 1.40) W
JAX -10.5 (1.15 -> 1) L
ZONA +8.5 (1.1 -> 1) L
INDY PK (1.1 -> 1) L
----------

Zona was driving and in field goal range when plummer threw his last pick. Indy got themselves back in it, but I deserved to lose that one. I really think I should have had that caro play in there. I let myself be convinced that TB would crush them. But really, you had a good defense (caro) against a mediocre offense (TB) getting a TD at home. I'm not monday morning quarterbacking here -- I'm just trying to look back at a game I think I should have been on and trying to figure out why I wasn't.

No plays tonight. I still have a bit on the under, and I'll probably put something down on the Eagles, but just beer money.

TheShrimp


Recap: how my "extras" performed. All unders: 6-7.
--------
tb 35.5 W
pitt 37.5 L
den 47 W
nyg 37.5
hou 38 L
zona 41 L
sea 37.5 W
tenn 41 L
det 50 W
cle 41.5 L
atl 47.5 L
chi 46 W
oak 55.5 W
indy 46.5 L

Sides:
CIN +6 P
ATL +5 W

I was fortunate to get the push on CIN. A lot of people took 5 or 5.5 I'm sure. I still think CIN was the right side in that one -- a good sized lead with the points.

 

[TheShrimp]

FWIW, a look into my methods and a final play for this week.

I have two method of looking at lines.

First, I set all my lines Sunday or Monday night. That's more of a "keep myself sharp" practice, but I don't think any handicapper should NOT do it. As far as I'm concerned. that should really be "Item #1" when starting your capping for the week. I don't bet whatever way my lines tell me I should. Usually I look at why mine are different than theirs. If the only reason I can come up with is "public sentiment", that's usually a play for me.

A second way is to actually take all the "official" lines and make my own % on each team covering and each team winning. Most of these are 50/50. A lot are between 50 and the magic number 52.4% I never go over 55%. For instance, Denver this week was 50/50 on covering for me, but close to that for winning outright. Hence, the ML play and not the side play.

Anyway, NYG were an early lean for me at +7. I put a 52% on them when I saw it which is why it was an early lean. Coincidentally, I put my opening line on PHI -8, which would indicate a play on the eagles at -7, but the 8 was really my guess of what the line WOULD be, not what it SHOULD be.

Anyway, SIA is offering NYG +7 +100 and like I said, I had it at 52%. That turns the NO PLAY with the VIG into a play with this line.

Appreciate all comments.

 

[TheShrimp]

LOSS.

LOSS.

Recap : 2-4 -1.5
YTD: 30-24-1 +5.8

I loved that game last night. McNabb is a real frustrating guy to play/bet against.

I had the sound off on the TV, so forgive me if they talked about this, but after the Giants pinned the eagles on the 1, they had a 3rd down play where I'm surprised that Fassel didn't challenge the spot.

ALSO, on the completion that the eagles challenged and had overturned: I thought he got two feet down with possession, and then it was a fumble and a recovery. Maybe madden explained what happened, but like I said, no sound.

But whatever -- it was looking like a cover for a while, but it could have been out of hand early too.