Pennsylvania Classic

[Stanley]

A new event, but not a new course. Waynesborough was built 35 years ago, but this is the first time that it has staged a PGA Tour event; in fact it is twenty years since Pennsylvania hosted a PGA Tour event and this could be something to stir up an added effort from the home state boys, Rocco Mediate and Jim Furyk. The description I have of the course is that it is set on rolling terrain with tree-lined fairways. Ponds and creeks figure on several holes. It is hard to surmise from that the type of golfer that would play well on this course, so may be it is best that most plays will be made from the 2nd round onwards this week. Nevertheless, the matchup-makers will also be in the dark this week, so there should be a few limited opportunities available.

With Furyk being rather short odds for a new event/course, the value could lie elsewhere with the likes of Bob May, Chris Perry or Chris Riley. May's last three finishes read 5th, 2nd 3rd so there can be no doubting his form or his confidence. The same can also be said for Chris Riley who recorded a 4th place finish at the John Deere Classic and repeated it two weeks ago at the Air Canada Championship when he could have gone much closer. He looks a decent longshot, while Perry can usually be counted upon to be in contention, especially given the weak field on view this week. More guesswork than usual needed for this event, but final outroght plays will be made when the tee-times are known.

Will have matchup plays in the morning.

 

[Stanley]

Just one early 72-hole matchup play:

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Backing the dependable Perry against the unbackable Paraguayan. Franco is very hard to predict, but his form has been very poor for the past few months and that can't be ignored

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Tough to cap with no course history however believe from what I have gathered there will be premium on driving accuracy and as always ball striking.Found 2 matches both at -115 where both choices have tripled others earnings,both drive it straighter,ranked 13th vs 109 and 5th vs 107 in ball striking.
72 holes @ $plays
Triplett over Pate
C Perry over McCarron

Was very tempted to take Verplank at +130 over Roberts but will wait and see what 1st round tees bring.May opt that route instead.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st round plays @ 5dimes
Triplett -120 over Pate
Perry -125 over McCarron
Don't like the odds but do like the matches
The 72 hole odds on above still remain the same @ moneyplays but are as high as -140 and -155 respectively @ Oly?

No tee advantage either day on Verplank/Roberts so will reluctantly pass on that match.

 

[Stanley]

Looks like we're in agreement again DTB and it has been profitable when we have been so far

Outright plays:

The top-ranked players this week are Chris Perry and Bob May and both are available are odds that are favorable. On a course in which length is not a primary consideration, both players look well-suited. Perry's stats in particular look very strong: of this field, he ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in regulation and 16th in putting average. May is 23rd in greens in regulation, but his story is one of very strong recent form so 12-month stats can be a little misleading in this case. William Hill offer 28/1 on Perry and 22/1 on May with the e/w bet paid on the first four places.

The 3rd player this week is Scott Verplank. Now fitted with a pump to his belt to control his diabetes, he is finally fulfilling his potential. A winner of the Reno-Tahoe Open three weeks ago, he took a week off and then finished 6th last week in a much stronger field. In a weak field this week he looks good value at 33/1 with Paddy Power who pay the e/w bet in the first five places.


72-hole plays:

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ Ladbrokes
Adding another unit

Scott Verplank to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Easybets
Another play on an outright pick against the poor-of-late Franco

Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Bowmans
McCarron's form may be as good as Perry's, but his game is centred around length off the tee and good putting. The first is not such a bonus this week and while they are both good putters, McCarron woeful ball-striking should be his downfall

Chris Perry to beat Rocco Mediate -115 @ WSEX
Mediate is a better ball-striker than McCarron, but really struggles on the greens. He may be the home state player, but the limited information available on the course suggests good all-round stats will be required this week

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Pate -110 @ Bowmans
Almost played Triplett for the outright, but was concerned about his form. Nevertheless it is still better than Pate's and in terms of all-round stats, Triplett is 2nd only to Chris Perry in this week's field - Pate doesn't have a core stat in the top-50 of this week's field

 

[Stanley]

1st round plays:

Fred Funk to beat Shigeki Mariuyama -115 @ Five Dimes
Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron 125 @ Five Dimes
Carl Paulson to beat Gary Nicklaus -111 @ DAS [2 units]
Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Pate -120 @ Five Dimes

 

[FatBoy]

lweek:1-1 +0.95x
ytd:27-29 -0.43x

1 play;
Flesch -105 vs Lehman for 2x

 

[FatBoy]

adding 1 3-ball at Sportingbet;
Triplett @13/8 for 1x

 

[AussieVamp2]

as far as the win bit goes, Megasports appears to have Perry at 36.00

 

[Stanley]

Waiting to see how the course plays/looks before making any major plays, so will follow DTB and throw in a a little 3-ball parlay at Sportingbet for entertainment purposes:

Janzen to beat Bradley & Haas +120
Verplank to beat Scherrer & Daly -125
Roberts to beat Durant & Tway +110

$10 wager would return $85.05

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st round results
Triplett/Pate loss
Perry/McCarron win
72 holes
Triplett/Pate 5 down
Perry/McCarron 4 up

What about these greens?Gonna be super tough when they dry out.Scoring today should be bout as good as it gets. Would have not been good idea to oppose Roberts here.

Good effort on combo Stan.You nailed 2 out of 3.Would think this would have been good track for Janzen too after seeing it.I'll be looking at him hard tommorow if they match em again.

 

[Stanley]

Thanks DTB. Thought I might pick up something until Janzen double-bogeyed the 17th

1st round update: 1-3-0 and -3.57 units

Definitely right to be cautious at the start of this tournament. None of the 1st round picks broke par and Fred Funk even withdrew altogether. Paulson lost by six to Nicklaus and Triplett lost by five to Pate, while Perry was the only winner, by four shots over McCarron. Plenty of time yet, but the 72-hole plays are currently standing a poor 1-3-1: Perry/Franco four down; Verplank/Franco four down; Perry/McCarron four up; Perry/Mediate all square; and Triplett/Pate five down.

Will take a good look at the scores and see if it confirms what the TV pictures show: this is a course for (i) accuracy and (ii) good putters. Should be able to put in a better performance with the 2nd round plays in the morning.

BTW I like the look of the course, very traditional, but what struck me most was the lack of crowds. Maybe a little unfair after watching 50,000 pack into Glen Abbey to watch Tiger last week, but I was surprised after the build up this event has received.

 

[Stanley]

For those familiar with the 'course compatibility' tables on my site, I've broken down the first-round scores to give the following:

21% - Driving Distance
30% - Driving Accuracy
24% - Greens in Regulation
25% - Putting Average

My initial presumption that accuracy was at a premium is borne out by the 1st round scores, but not that putting ability is also paramount. Was a little influenced by Loren Robert's high showing, but he only ranks 30th in putting average this year. I'm sure it's just a case of having to hit the fairway to be able to hit approach shots to the right side [underneath] the hole given the severity of the slopes around the holes.

To confirm that length is not an issue here, look at the positions of the top-4 in the Tour's driving length stats:

Emlyn Aubrey: 166th
Danny Briggs: 166th
Frank Lickliter: 152nd
Loren Roberts: 190th

Hope this helps with capping the 2nd round

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd round plays
Verplank over May -110 @ 5dimes
Sluman over Nicklaus -115 $plays

Wonder what makes these bookmakers think they have license to steal vs golf punters.
Some lines from $plays today
Franco -150 or Calc +110
Furyk -160 or Maggert +110
Flesch -180 or Waite +125
Think I'll drop down to offshore info and ask them.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for stats Stan

$hits and grins 3ball combo $10 gets $168
playing these four
Janzen-Henninger-Verplank-Roberts

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Carlos Franco +120 @ Island Casino [same odds @ Sportbet]
Scott Dunlap to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ DAS
Rocco Mediate to beat Carlos Franco -105 @ DAS
Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Jeff Sluman to beat Gary Nicklaus -115 @ Moneyplays [3 units] [same odds @ Island Casino, Sportbet, On-Line Casino]
Scott Verplank to beat Grant Waite -110 @ Five Dimes


Know what you're saying DTB

I've read other books defend it by claiming it's just the same %s but there's a bigger split in the line at the higher numbers. But what you're reporting is defintely not that.

Typical golf line -115 both sides = 107% [ie. 7% juice]
Franco -150 or Calc +110 = 107.6% [should be -150/+112 for consistent %]
Furyk -160 or Maggert +110 = 109.1%

Flesch -180 or Waite +125 = 108.7% [should be -180/+135 for consistent %]

And the 10c baseball lines rolls in at 102.4%

For playing dogs I do prefer Island Casino and in particular Sportbet, they maintain the 30c line even if it means a small fall in the juice:

Franco -150 & Calc +120 [105.5%]
Furyk -160 & Maggert +130 [105.0%]
Flesch -180 & Waite +150 [104.3%] [Island Casino has +140]

 

[FatBoy]

I konw this is a little late, but it rained real hard here last night around 1:00 am est. Some of the loudest T-Storms I've ever heard. I live about 30 miles from the course.

 

[Stanley]

My $hits and grins 3ball combo $10 gets $151

Ian Garbutt to beat John Bickerton and Sven Struver +150 [Trophee Lancome]
Rocco Mediate to beat Carlos Franco and Dennis Paulson +188
Scott Verplank to beat Tom Scherrer and John Daly

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for info on Island and Sportbet.If they are going to try and give fair shake I am gonna give em a shot.
Fats thanks for info.Today throw the banana peels in Francos path,you got Funk by mistake yesterday

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 09-15-2000).]

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 5-1-0 and +8.00 units

A great day with convincing winners and a reversal for the better in the 72-hole plays

Calc beat Franco by nine, Mediate beat Franco by eight and Perry beat Franco by seven. Elsewhere, Sluman beat Nicklaus by four and Verplank beat Waite by two, while the only loss by a eight-shot defeat of Scott Dunlap by Frank Lickliter.

Two 72-hole plays are decided at the cut: one good, one bad. McCarron misses out by one to grant Perry a four-shot win, while Triplett is a heavy eleven shot loser to Steve Pate. Three plays remain alive with the 3-unit play looking good, Perry leads Franco by three, and in the others, Verplank leads Franco by three and Perry trails Mediate by one.

The combo misses out with only Verplank winning and the other two losing by one shot. Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.