People why are you laying -160?

[MR. LOCK]

Do you understand -160 converts to 60% juice ?

Just stop it . Stop it now . For Christsake if you want to Chalk down at least play the runline

 

[yak merchant]

Do you understand -160 converts to 60% juice ?

Just stop it . Stop it now . For Christsake if you want to Chalk down at least play the runline

Umm Actually -160 alone tells you nothing about the juice, and runlines have a lot to do with home/away and totals but most of the time turning a -160 ML favorite into a plus number by giving 1.5 runs will end up costing you more juice.

 

[MR. LOCK]

Umm Actually -160 alone tells you nothing about the juice, and runlines have a lot to do with home/away and totals but most of the time turning a -160 ML favorite into a plus number by giving 1.5 runs will end up costing you more juice.

If I bet yanks for $100 -160 on ml and lose = 60% 60/100
Just like betting 100 on a bb game and I lose . I owe 110 which is 10% juice
If I bet the yanks run line -1.5 +110 I lose no juice only lose my original $100

-110 = 10%
-120 =20%
-130 =30%
-140= 40%
-150 =50%
-160 =60%

Anyone laying more than -130 is nuts

 

[MR. LOCK]

One more example
Take $200 x 60% = 120 $200 + 120 = $320
So betting $200 - 160 = $320 or 60%

When u convert the ML into a percentage u can really see how crazy it is to lay -160

 

[yak merchant]

If I bet yanks for $100 -160 on ml and lose = 60% 60/100
Just like betting 100 on a bb game and I lose . I owe 110 which is 10% juice
If I bet the yanks run line -1.5 +110 I lose no juice only lose my original $100

-110 = 10%
-120 =20%
-130 =30%
-140= 40%
-150 =50%
-160 =60%

Anyone laying more than -130 is nuts

I'll give you that most people should stay away from big favorites but moneyline price and juice really have nothing to do with each other. The vigorish is the difference between the favorite and the underdog price. if a line was -160/+160 then the juice is zero. It may make you feel better that you are only betting 100 to win more than 100 with the underdogs but you aren't getting a better deal. And like a said a -160 favorite has less juice than a -110 favorite.

For your -110 ML both sides are -110. -110/(-110 -100) or -110/-210 is your break even percentage of 52.38%. As both sides are the same. That adds up to 104.76% or 4.76% Juice.

For your 160ML the dog will be +140 (assuming a 20 cent line).
Which means the favorite is -160/(-160-100) or -160/260 = 61.538% break even.
The Dog is 100/(140+100) or 100/240 or 41.666% break even.
So total is 103.20% or 3.20% juice.

In the long run it's about finding value, you can make money betting dogs or favorites. It may be easier for you to pick 53%+ winners on -110 games, but someone else might have more success picking 62%+ winners on -160 favorites. The best thing you can do is find a bookmaker that offers dime lines for baseball. if you can get -160/+150 the juice is cut in half (1.6%). If a $100 bettor makes an average of 4 bets a day in baseball for the whole season and ends up breaking even betting into a 20 cent line, they would have been up over $3000 if they had been betting into a dime line.

 

[yyz]

Most astute bettors would advise you against taking the favorite at any price in baseball.

 

[Jord20]

A quick chime in...

Telling people that the ML equates to juice is flat out WRONG and bad information.

If the Heat play Glenbrook North high school in basketball and the ML is Heat -160... you are NOT paying 60% juice... it simply means that the Heat have a roughly 61% chance of winning. Which in this case, would obviously be INSANE value. If you added a spread (say an extra 20 cents -making the line -180, then you would have juice) If you can get GBN at +160, then there is NO juice. Juice is simply the spread that they charge for you to play a side.

I am not advocating anything in this post as to whether or not you should play favorites in baseball or not... simply clarifying bad and false information.

At any rate, I'm not trying to be a dick at all, just don't want this type of misinformation to be spread as fact to people who look on here...

keep picking winners Mr. Lock. Cheers. :toast:

 

[Jord20]

I'll give you that most people should stay away from big favorites but moneyline price and juice really have nothing to do with each other. The vigorish is the difference between the favorite and the underdog price. if a line was -160/+160 then the juice is zero. It may make you feel better that you are only betting 100 to win more than 100 with the underdogs but you aren't getting a better deal. And like a said a -160 favorite has less juice than a -110 favorite.

For your -110 ML both sides are -110. -110/(-110 -100) or -110/-210 is your break even percentage of 52.38%. As both sides are the same. That adds up to 104.76% or 4.76% Juice.

For your 160ML the dog will be +140 (assuming a 20 cent line).
Which means the favorite is -160/(-160-100) or -160/260 = 61.538% break even.
The Dog is 100/(140+100) or 100/240 or 41.666% break even.
So total is 103.20% or 3.20% juice.

In the long run it's about finding value, you can make money betting dogs or favorites. It may be easier for you to pick 53%+ winners on -110 games, but someone else might have more success picking 62%+ winners on -160 favorites. The best thing you can do is find a bookmaker that offers dime lines for baseball. if you can get -160/+150 the juice is cut in half (1.6%). If a $100 bettor makes an average of 4 bets a day in baseball for the whole season and ends up breaking even betting into a 20 cent line, they would have been up over $3000 if they had been betting into a dime line.

Sorry, I didn't read this post before I wrote mine.

What he said... :iagree: