Pepsi 400 Info

[Another Steve]

By Matt Tuck
Contributing Editor

July 5, 2007

It has been a while since the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series raced on anything quite like Daytona International Speedway. Three out of the last four races have been either flat tracks or road courses. The series has not taken to a restrictor-plate track since they were at Talladega SuperSpeedway in April.

This week, drivers have to change from the Car of Tomorrow (COT) back to the old car. This means fantasy owners will need to change mental gears right along with the teams, because there will be a new crop of contenders this week.

There is no doubt that the teams with the most money win on the SuperSpeedways. Hopefully the COT will help change that beginning this fall at Talladega, but for now, it takes a special car dedicated to restrictor-plate racing and powerful engines to make a run at the checkered flag at Daytona or Talladega.

That costs big dollars.

What some of the smaller teams have done in recent years is buy their engines from the "big boys." These teams, such as Ginn Racing and Hall of Fame Racing, are considered satellite operations because of their ties to Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. Fantasy owners will want to keep in mind where teams get their motors because anyone running a strong engine has a chance to find the right draft and get to the front at Daytona.

Favorites
Chevrolet tends to dominate the restrictor-plate races, but Ford and Dodge have been putting cars inside the top 10 on a regular basis lately. This week, keep an eye out for a few drivers in Fusions and Avengers who will be in the middle of the fight all night.

Tony Stewart may not have a Daytona 500 trophy, but he has owned the SuperSpeedway when the sun sets. Two years ago, he set a new record for number of laps led by a single driver en route to his first victory at the Florida track. Last season, he made a return trip to the winner's circle after being nearly as strong. If it was not for a crash while he was leading this year's Daytona 500, Stewart would have seven consecutive top-10s there.

Kurt Busch is one frustrated guy these days. He and Stewart were the best in the Daytona 500 when they wrecked while running one-two. That has set the tone for Busch in 2007, who routinely has strong cars only to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory by bad luck. He will exorcise his demons on Saturday. Since taking over the No. 2 Dodge, he has three top-fives and four top-10s in six SuperSpeedway starts. He was third in last year's Pepsi 400 and was a contender at Talladega before the race ended under caution.

Surprises
The dark horse picks are plentiful on a SuperSpeedway. With the cars running two- and three-wide for most of the race, all it takes is for a driver to get the right push to get to the front of the pack. Once door-to-door in the lead draft in the final laps, practically anyone has a chance to win the lottery that is Daytona.

David Gilliland has made only three career starts on the restrictor plate tracks, but he is proving that he can overcome his inexperience. He was 15th in his first time out at Talladega, and then ran in the lead draft almost all day?even after suffering damage?and finished eighth in the Daytona 500. In April, he earned a career-best finish of fourth in his return trip to 'Dega, all of this after posting the fastest time in qualification in each race. Actually, he tied Jeff Gordon to the thousandth of a second at Talladega this spring to tie the pole-winning speed. With Robert Yates Racing's strength on the SuperSpeedways, expect Gilliland and Ricky Rudd to put their noses inside the top 10.

Mark Martin did not have the strongest car in the Daytona 500, but he looked awfully fast in the final stages, before finishing second to Kevin Harvick. He makes his return to the restrictor-plate tracks this week after skipping Talladega. The No. 01 Chevrolet has Hendrick Motorsports power under the hood and that has helped the Ginn Racing camp on the big tracks. In April, his teammate Sterling Marlin kept pace with the leaders and earned a rare top-20. Look for Martin to keep quiet in the early stages of the Pepsi 400 and find the right drafting partner to get to the front when it counts the most.

Avoidance Principal
Toyota has made leaps and bounds when comparing their recent numbers to where they were in the Daytona 500. In May, they decided to reconfigure their engine package and it has helped their teams. However, tracks like Daytona and Talladega pull so many RPMs for so long that even if a team finds power, they are playing Russian roulette with the engine. Remember that at Talladega, David Reutimann was running third when his engine expired in the closing laps of the Aaron's 499. So far on the SuperSpeedways, no Toyota has been better than Dale Jarrett's 22nd in February and that is not likely to change this week. Avoid all the Toyota teams this week.

Greg Biffle usually gets onto fantasy rosters on the SuperSpeedways because of his Pepsi 400 win as a rookie in 2003. That statistic is misleading. While he did run toward the front in that race, he won on that day by virtue of good fuel mileage, not car strength. What's more is that he has not had a single top-10 and only three top-20s on the restrictor-plate tracks in the four years since he got to victory lane. Do not expect him to be a contender unless he gets very lucky

 

[Another Steve]

By Dan Beaver
Senior Editor

July 6, 2007

Since NASCAR altered the points structure for the Chase for the Nextel Cup, winning is the only thing that matters, and with nine races to go until then, the gloves are coming off. The standings will be reset at New Hampshire for the 10-race playoff, with every driver receiving the same number of points. The only exception is a 10-point bonus for each race won during the regular season, which means that second-place is truly the first loser in the field.

This type of single-mindedness on the drivers' part has the capability to create havoc on the course. Fuel mileage gambles and two-tire pits stops are rarely employed on a track with massive drafting packs of more than 30 cars and taking a risk in traffic can easily cause a "Big One" crash.

Tier One
This certainly won't catch anyone by surprise, but points are points and your job is to earn them. Tony Stewart is likely to earn the maximum allowed by NASCAR. Aside from his single mistake this spring in the Daytona 500, he's been perfect here for more than three years with a streak of finishes seventh or better in six consecutive races and he's gunning for his third straight victory in the Pepsi 400. He has the best average running position on the track of 8.1 during the past five races and has spent the most time in the top 10, which makes him the closest thing to a lock fantasy owners will find.

The mystique surrounding Dale Earnhardt, Inc. (DEI) is returning with both Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Martin Truex Jr. carrying streaks of top finishes into Daytona International Speedway. The driver of the No. 8 has scored eight top-15 finishes in his last nine attempts, and that gives him confidence at exactly the right time. Last week, he was dominant in the Lenox Industrial Tools 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway before he was shuffled back in traffic and his record on the restrictor-plate SuperSpeedways is legendary. He's fallen on hard times on these in recent seasons, but mostly that has been attributable to bad luck and not a lack of horsepower.

We're going to change our mind on Jimmie Johnson before the green flag waves. By the numbers, he should be one of the favorites. He has the second-best average running position on the track during the past five races of 9.7 and has spent nearly as much time in the top 10 as Stewart, but he's developed an aggressive streak on the big tracks that very well could hurt him. Sometimes a driver can trigger the "Big One" crash and avoid it, but just as often, he gets swallowed up by it.

Tier Two
With Earnhardt experiencing trouble in recent seasons, it's been difficult for DEI to show the dominance it had on restrictor-plate SuperSpeedways in the early part of the decade. That has hurt the performance of the number two ride and kept Truex from showing his strength, but with a victory and four top-three finishes in his last four oval track starts, he also has confidence leaking out of his pores. In nine previous big track starts, Truex has either been slowed or stopped by crash damage or blown an engine five times, but in the four races he kept out of trouble, he has one top-five, two top-10s and a 16th to his credit.

There are easier picks at this tier, but we are going to go out on a limb and say that Ray's Racers are going to have a pretty good day. Neither Elliott Sadler nor Kasey Kahne have had much to crow about since finishing sixth and seventh in the Daytona 500, but the plate tracks play by their own rules. These two drivers are not prone to making mistakes on the SuperSpeedways, and that means they will not trigger the "Big One."

Other than his victory in the 2003 Pepsi 400?which he claimed via a rare fuel mileage run?Greg Biffle has been miserable on the plate tracks. That is his only top-10 and very few top-15s have followed as well. The speed chart at Daytona is essentially meaningless, but it can confirm suspicions and the No. 16 was only 18th in average velocity at 183.09 miles per hour during 68 laps. A top-20 is about all you can expect from him.

Tier Three
David Gilliland is about the only driver that we can truly get excited about in Tier Three. This Young Gun has gotten progressively stronger in every restrictor-plate race he's run. Granted, that is only three events, but his resume is already more impressive than drivers with many more starts. In his first attempt last year at Talladega SuperSpeedway, Gilliland sat on the pole and stayed out of trouble all day to finish 15th. This spring, he was once again on the pole for the Daytona 500 and finished eighth. Back at 'Dega this spring, he tied Jeff Gordon to the thousandth of a second in qualification and rolled off the grid from the outside of the front row before finishing fourth. He might just continue to improve, and Daytona is notoriously kind to first time winners.

In addition to Sadler and Kahne, Joe Nemechek and David Ragan earned the first?and so far, only?top-10 in the Daytona 500 and they are offered as proof that any driver is capable of walking away with a decent finish on this wild card track if he stays out of trouble. We have no better reason to green flag them as any other driver in Tier Three, so if you have a personal preference, you should certainly feel free to play a hunch.

Tier Four
Your choice in this tier is going to boil down to one thing only and that is instinct.

This tier is filled with dark horse candidates, because several of the drivers get their powerplants from well established organizations such as Hendrick Motorsports (Jeff Green and Sterling Marlin) and Joe Gibbs Racing (Tony Raines). This tier also has the third DEI mate Paul Menard and David Reutimann, who was running comfortably with the leaders before his engine exploded at Talladega this spring.

Experience counts on the big tracks, so perhaps that should be the deciding factor, and if so Marlin gets the nod from those drivers listed above, but don't forget that Bill Elliott is also in Tier Four, driving the Wood Bros. No. 21.

 

[Another Steve]

07/06 Rains cancels quals, Gordon on pole
The News
Rain canceled qualification with 15 cars remaining to take time. This knocked Boris Said off the pole and out of the race and place Jeff Gordon at the head of the charts.

Our View
In the big scheme of things, this won't matter to the race's handicap, but it is terrible news for Said and his fans.

 

[Another Steve]

By Matt Tuck
Contributing Editor

July 8, 2007

When Sterling Marlin was injured in 2002, Chip Ganassi called on little-known Jamie McMurray to fill his shoes. The rookie surprised everyone by taking the No. 40 Dodge to victory lane with a combination of fuel strategy and strength. Since then, fantasy owners have been waiting for him to get that second career victory. It finally came on Saturday in the Pepsi 400 and snapped a 166-race winless streak.

McMurray had a fast car from the onset, but he had to overcome long odds after he was black-flagged for passing Jeff Gordon below the yellow line on lap 31 to capture the second position. Unaware he had made an illegal pass, he did not give the position back, which drew a drive through penalty from NASCAR that put him back on track, without the benefit of the draft.

McMurray was like the Maytag repairman for 24 laps?all alone on the track?until Juan Montoya punted the Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick into the wall on lap 58. His car was strong enough to maintain the lead lap all by itself, however. He rejoined the pack in 29th after his service and quietly, he worked his way back toward the front. He was once again in the mix of things with 10 laps remaining. Behind him, there was a family affair plotting against him.

The Busch brothers owned Daytona on Saturday night. They paired together early in the race and both Kurt and Kyle Busch?who had already won earlier in the day in the rain-delayed Busch Series event?spent a lot of time in the leader's chair. As the laps went on, the two stuck together as if they were on the same team. That will be something to remember when the series heads to the next restrictor plate track at Talladega SuperSpeedway in October.

After the final caution on lap 153, Kyle Busch was moving from lane to lane as he climbed back into the lead. He was using the bottom lane with his brother behind him. In a groove above those two, McMurray was leading a charge with his teammate Carl Edwards giving him a push. As the white flag waved, the younger Busch and McMurray were neck and neck. The No. 2 Dodge driver tried to give him the push he needed to win, but McMurray was too strong and edged the No. 5 Chevrolet by inches in the second closest finish in NASCAR's history.

The win was McMurray's first since joining Roush-Fenway Racing and only Ford's second win since Matt Kenseth took the checkered flag at California Speedway in February.

Strong Runs
The Penske Dodges were more than survivors this week after falling on hard times for several races, and the fastest car of the night was driven by Kurt Busch.

Busch's strategy was to get the positions on long green flag runs. The No. 2 Dodge was set up to go from loose to a little tight as the green flag laps ticked away, so he was not happy with the numerous late-race cautions. Every time he would begin to make his way toward the lead, a yellow flag waved to slow him down.

Teamwork also helped the No. 2. Busch and Ryan Newman worked very closely, often finding one another as they carefully made their way to the front. The interesting part was that they seemingly had a third unofficial teammate in the Pepsi 400 in the form of Kurt's brother Kyle. The soon-to-be-former Hendrick Motorsports driver worked well with the fast Dodges?perhaps he was interviewing for a position in the third Penske Racing South ride that is supposed to debut in 2008. When Kurt Busch took the lead on lap 79, Kyle was content to ride behind him. Jimmie Johnson soon caught them, and the No. 5 Chevrolet driver raced him very hard and did not offer his teammate any assistance either then or in the last dash to the end.

Overall, the Dodges had stout cars in its ranks. Not only were the No. 2 and 12 Chargers among the best in the field, but the No. 40 Charger was able to hang with the leaders for much of the race. David Stremme looked good enough for another plate track top-10 finish until he hit Paul Menard exiting his pit stall with only 44 laps to go. Before that damage, Stremme had been running inside the top five.

David Gilliland deserves a mention for his driving in the Pepsi 400. He started 32nd after the field was set by points due to rain on Friday. The No. 38 Ford did not get much television exposure for the first half of the race, but as time grew short, he was in contention. He took two tires under the caution flag on lap 134 and that ushered him into fourth on the restart. Gilliland held with the top 10 until he spun out of the middle of a three-wide snarl seven laps after the green flag waved. Luckily, he did not hit anything and was able to stay on the lead lap. After taking fresh tires, he charged back to finish 11th on the night. That makes perfect in terms of top-15 finishes on restrictor-plate SuperSpeedways.

Survivor: Daytona
One of the biggest stories of the race came very early in the Pepsi 400. With the threat of the "Big One" crash in every restrictor plate race, usually the best place to be is at the front. That was not the case for the Joe Gibbs Racing banner carriers.

On lap 10, Denny Hamlin was in the lead with Tony Stewart helping him draft by Jeff Gordon. As the field split into two- and three-wide racing behind them, Hamlin and Stewart kept the field at bay. On lap 14, things went wrong. Hamlin had complained that his car was getting very tight and pushed out of Turn Four. Stewart drove into the back of his teammate in an eerily similar incident as in the Daytona 500, when it was a rapidly slowing Stewart that got nailed by second-place Kurt Busch. Last year, in the fall Talladega race, the leaders were wiped out by Brian Vickers, making three of the last four SuperSpeedway races in which the leader has crashed.

Behind them, the field tried to scatter to avoid the damage. In the melee, Reed Sorenson rand into the back of Dale Earnhardt Jr. after first bouncing off the No. 43 of Bobby Labonte. The No. 8 Chevrolet did not have to immediately head to the garage as Stewart and Hamlin did, but there was too much damage for him to do more than make laps from there to the end.

Bad luck was abundant in the first half of the event. In the Daytona 500, Harvick suffered damage early but recovered in time to win the "Great American Race." Fate was against him this week. He was consistently in the lead draft when he found himself running alongside Montoya on lap 56. Most drivers tried to avoid the No. 42 Dodge throughout the race, because he was very loose and driving way over his head. As driver after driver pulled out of his way, Montoya made his way into the lead pack. When got next to Harvick, the No. 42 shimmied up the track and pushed the No. 29 Chevrolet into the wall. That took him out of the race and had him down nine laps in short time. Later in the race, Montoya ran over the side of Labonte in a second incident that sealed the No. 42's Fate and Montoya finished three laps off the pace in 32nd.

Results

1. Jamie McMurray

2. Kyle Busch

3. Kurt Busch

4. Carl Edwards

5. Jeff Gordon

6. Greg Biffle

7. Clint Bowyer

8. Matt Kenseth

9. Kasey Kahne

10. Jimmie Johnson

11. David Gilliland

12. David Ragan *

13. Martin Truex Jr.

14. Ryan Newman

15. Robby Gordon

16. Jeff Burton

17. Mark Martin

18. Johnny Sauter

19. Casey Mears

20. J.J. Yeley

21. Paul Menard *

22. David Stremme

23. Dave Blaney

24. Bill Elliott

25. Kenny Wallace

26. David Reutimann *

27. Dale Jarrett

28. John Andretti

29. Joe Nemechek

30. Brian Vickers

31. Ricky Rudd

32. Juan Montoya *

33. Elliott Sadler

34. Kevin Harvick

35. Bobby Labonte

36. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

37. Jeff Green

38. Tony Stewart

39. Tony Raines

40. Sterling Marlin

41. Scott Riggs

42. Reed Sorenson

43. Denny Hamlin


* Rookies