Philly - Fry Day

Jimboski

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After Sundays blunder, I'd love to gettem today and the card looks pretty good for Friday. So here goes....

Race 1: Rarely consider 6 horse fields playable but the horses in this race don't get bet down. Maybe a short field of 3 and 4 to 1s and better? That can produce decent zotic payoffs at this track. How bout trifectas - 1,5/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6 AND zacks -> 2,6 OVER 1,5 AND the anti ass burner -> 2-6 boxed. Yeah, it looks like a lot, but $1 on the tries, more on the exactas doesn't amount to that much and just hitting any one of the bets should produce a worthwhile profit. Besides, the 2nd and the 3rd race won't cost ya a cent :)

Race 4: Yeah, plenty of tickets cause this race looks like good payoff for zotics. There are two main plays - 3,6 top/bot w. 4,7 AND no. 7 to win,only. I've been watching that no. 7 and played her in her last race (finished 5th). Most tracks have a lot of horses that run in "cycles". Very hard to explain and it's certainly not a science. What it means for today is that today just may be her turn to WIN. Don't think she'll be 10-1 but the distance suits her just fine, good connections too. I'm tempted to just wheel her top/bot. There is one more :s2: that can get in the picture at a very nice price as well and that would be no.2. Her M.L. is 12/1 and If she looks good on the track, I'll play minimum zactas -> no. 2 top/bot with 3,7.

Race 6: What an interesting race. I'm pretty familiar with almost every horse in this race so I took the time to do the "heavy duty" analysis/figure calculations and maybe see if some SERIOUS betting is in order for this race. (Reads like I'm doing calculus LOL).
Coming up with these 3 which I think I may focus on:

[b[No. 1, Seminole County[/b] - I don't know why this horse is running at Philly cause it looks like this colt could compete quite well in N.Y. with the BIG uns. If there was something wrong with him, it woulda showed in his first start here at Philly and IT DIDN'T. This one is the obvious horse.

No. 5, Tin Pan Indy would be my personnal pick but some of that is due to the attractive odds for this one. Still, I know he CAN run some.

No. 8, Big Sur is the interesting one and I wouldn't have picked this one on my own. After doing the time consuming adjustments to his speed figs., class, running style, and plenty of other STUFF, the figures sez that this hoss just creams the others in this wace :eek: .
I'll just leave it at those 3 for now cause right now I don't know how to play these in this race. Maybe a scratch or two will help me decide.


Race 7: WTF, is this a Breeders Cup wace?? No, thems ain't no Champions, of course not. They sure are closely matched that's for sure! Would LUV to come up with something for this race cause it makes "$" spin in my head, but I really can't. There is one that I may just play across the board - no. 4, Indy Tune. No impotent facta points for this one, but look at his last race -> same class, won by 6+ lengths, and won going away. And 20-1 today, HUH? Oh, look who he destroyed in that race (finished 2nd), that there Big Sur hoss I just wrote about in the 4th race. Yeah, I'm gonna put a little on this one. Sheesh, I'm seeing more things about this one now that I ain't gonna even get into.

BTW, "no Champions at Phlly"?, well Smarty Jones was a Philly hoss. One last comment bout this here race - one of the jockey's in this race just LUVS winning on Fridays. I was gonna see if anybody could guess who that is, but I got a feeling what the response will be.. you know, " " LOL.
Ok, I'll just write it at the bottom of this post in small letters. One thing though - ya gotta stand on yer head to read it. Hey, you Peepers gotta do sumphin around here.

Race 8: Landed on the two favorites for this one :( I usually make that a "No Play" race, but maybe not for this race cause I don't believe BOTH of the favorites can finish 1,2 in this race. Not suggesting anybody play all the plays I got for this one, but they actually don't cost that much. I think a ticket will cash with one of them, Let's see... .. . ya got your choice -> only a few tries, the usual exacta type play, and a simple exacta play.
Trifectas 4/5,8/5,8 and 5/4,8/4,8; zacks 4,5 t/b 8,9; and/or 2 OVER 4,5,9.

I guess the logical throw out play would be that last simple exacta play (no. 2 on top) cause that there no. 2 hoss was scratched by the STEWARDS in it's last scheduled start. Futhermore, her last two starts look terrible. BUT, hoss wacin ain't a logical sport. Just to share an idea with yas - what I do in a situation like this IF the horse is a contender (I think the no. 2 is) you ONLY put it on TOP of any zotic ya play with that horse in it cause either there really is something wrong with the animal which means it will finish well out of the moola or the track is gonna send it up the ying yang of the smart/wise guy bettors.

Thats it, G.L.
ɹǝɹɹǝɟ
 

Hamster

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Jimmy,

Very nice analysis of today's races. Full day of racing with the Parx and SA Breeder's cup. Hope our ROI is on the positive side. Also see that you are leaning on "ɹǝɹɹǝɟ" today and how about the other Ferrer, who is chasing his third straight Heineken Open title in Auckland?
Hammy
 
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Jimboski

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Hey, MJers :)

Hey, MJers :)

Great to see two of the foundation blocks of this forum. Also good to have 48 straight hours of leisure to myself :0028

And that means that I'm watching them LIVE for a change. I do the "Lookers" thing when I watchem live. That is - I make two columns, "LOOKERS" and "Deadheads". It was too late for me to post it for that 4th race, but sure enough the 3 favorites plus the nos. 1 and 2 were the LOOKERS. NO, I didn't change a thing with my betting for that race cause I had enough "invested" in it. That there Lucy's Finale needs 6 furlongs and a drop in class before I back her again.

So far it looks like Favoritesville at Philly today and the picks don't look so good. Actually, a 3-2 exacta woulda worked out just fine for that 4th wace.

Gonna keep on truckin and try to post the "LOOKERS" if I see yas online during the races.

I hope you guys can come up with a wiener today. There'll be the Bestest Bet college footsball pick with my post for tomorrow. I'm afraid you'll have to be an early bird to to see it though cause I won't have it figured till VERY late tonight. No big deal cause making a long winning streak longer ain't easy.

HM, appreciate the "frosty", but looking at your avatar makes me think a nice cup of HOT chocolate may be more in order. :)


Hammy, now you got me standing on my head, thinking about my picks so far -
image.php






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Jimboski

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6th Lookers (nuthin special, but these look decent)
2
3
9 (looks a little better than the others, but that outside post is a problem)

Still 4 mins to post.
 

Jimboski

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Mo stuff

Mo stuff

Good picks, Hammy but there seems to be no end to the favorites parade. Regarding wieners anyways.

Races LOOK so easy AFTER the dang race.. no, 1 (figure horse) with no. 2 (a LOOKER) in a two turn race (inside posts is the way to go). 1<-> 2 are excellent picks in two turn races IF at least one of them figures strongly. Sheesh.

Boy, adding that no. 9 to my collection sure didn't help any. :00x4

Sheet, only 2 races/chances to git dat pot o gold today :(
 

Jimboski

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HM, Hammy hay(for Hosses), look down the bottom. At least we're attracting dem Peepers. And thems just the MJ versions. :mj07:
 

hogman14

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It's breeders cup...wait til tomorrow Jimbo, we better hit high ground.

Derby time, watchout now!

Ha ha ha.

Too bad we couldn't give them a better showing than a bunch of torn up tickets.
 

Jimboski

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for the 7th wace

for the 7th wace

HA HAH.. .the fav., no 3 looks a little like a DEADbeat.
 

Jimboski

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Going a bit overboard today in bets.. but I gotta add some mo across the board on no. 4 (not a little either) and also lesser on no. 1 across.

Still 3 mins.
 

Jimboski

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CONGRATS on them plays, Hammy. A little tough to swallow making them plays esp. on a day where favorites were ruling, but it had to taste good at the cashiers window. Win or disqualified, that STINKIN Creek picks was an excellent pick. :00x23

I guess I can write (but not in CAPS though), " That's what I'm talking about". :)

Price on that no. 1 made the race profitable and it followed suit that today would be an upside down day. DO remember "FERRER on Fry Days". That IS what I'm talking about when I write that it's best to get familiar as you can for ONE stinkin WACE TWACK.
 
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