Philly park dirt bombs today, anyone? - Sun.

[Jimboski]

So/so card today; good enough for a few plays. Posting the earlier races to see if it gets any interest from the real players -

Race 4: wouldn't be a playable race, but there is one horse that really gets my attention ESP. at 8-1. No. 2, Amoracchius (name looks more like it would be a Peeper than a horse) has hints of being a longshot wiener in plenty of places in it's pp's (past performances). Degenerates excuse? --> "saved moola for not betting the 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so I can go a little overboard on this race". Actually, if ya like a pricey hoss as much as do even if it's a very IFFY propositon ya gotta kinda force a few plays... this is them:
Zactas 2,7 top/bot 1,5,8 AND a side order of no. 2 and not 2 stinkin dollar bets either ->W/Pl/Show @2x or 3x. Only need one of the zactas or the side play (win or place spots) to hit to do just fine in this race.

Race 4: no. 7 looks like an across the board play, maybe a little heavier on the Show part of that bet.

G.L. (so far)

 

[pd1]

I'm in Jimbo.

 

[Hamster]

GL Jim, no time to read the DRF today. Taking family to a Xmas show so I will tag along in the fourth.

 

[pd1]

It sure is wet at the big A.

Whats the track look like at Philly?

 

[Jimboski]

wrap up

wrap up

Sorry pd and Hammy, I was out (football game) all day and got in well after the races were run; watched the replays. SOME difference between the weather they must have had up north and down here where it was one perfect day today and the past several days as well. I checked out Big A and watched the Philly replays, races I bet. Philly was sloppy but not nearly as bad as N.Y.

Philly
That no. 2 hoss I liked in the 4th got out and ran very well for 3/4s of the race. Yeah, thems don't pay ya anything for that . Looks like he was well meant by his connections (means they were going for it) but either didn't like the track conditions or just wasn't as good in the late race as a couple of the others. Collected the 3x show price, but that didn't come close to getting me even with the total bet which included the zactas.

Only other race I played was the 7th and GOOD THING I didn't post that one. BAD move, not betting the horse I liked across the board or even just to win. Used the no. 1 entry in zacks (no. 8 ruined those tickets). Sheet, both parts of the entry finished first and second and paid well. Dang it.

Where to go from here ?
The good - Monday and Tue$ coming up next and those days have been my bestest days.

The bad, with some good advice, I THINK -> I checked my records and see that OFF TRACKS and rainy days AIN'T my specialty that's forsho. Record is really good for fast tracks but if all my plays woulda been on OFF tracks/rainy days..... I woulda been broke a long while ago. Going back a long, long way... that wasn't the case? Seemed liked it didn't make a difference to me back then.

And I DO KNOW that the adjustment to make for off tracks is to give a little more advantage (not too much though) for early speedsters and to follow the track bias in the latter races which means to give the inside posts just a little more edge IF the track was playing toward inside post positions in the early races or visa versa (outside posts were winning). BUT, THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU HAVE TO FOLLOW ANY OF THOSE RULES RELIGIOUSLY. If ya LUV an outside pp hoss with so/so early speed and the early races were playing toward the inside and it's sloppy - YOU PLAY THE HOSS YOU LUV. AND, if you really like a horse that meets the bias (good early speed and on the right side of the starting gate -> you bet it a little heavier.

Looks like at least one of yas will be around so - If I see something for today, MON., I'm gonna put it in this thread. Think I'll start a new thread once per week and put the week's (Sat to Tues) in it. Only Philly, and if they run on Friday, I'll post it as well. May not post a thing on some days. Hope weather/track conditions improve.

Good luck whatever you guys are up to.

 

[Jimboski]

MONDAY

MONDAY

Gonna put the picks for today tomorrow in here cause you regulars know where to find me.

Forecast is for showers today, so be careful betting, YOUR picks or mine or a combo of both cause showers plus a mushy track means that any race can be an "anything goes" race and you can't cap for those things.

2nd race: No. 3, Twisted Heart is the pick. If I'm right about that, I think shopping for a longshot that has a chance just might be the thing to do in some exacta bets...
3 top/bot w. 2,4,5,7. In keeping with the "anything goes" prospect, no. 1, Deputyville, whose a horse player's nightmare, has to be the side bet (Win/Place). When this horse feels like running he'll close like a freight train and win/place or show at huge odds. This headache did just that this year in it's only 9 starts; it hit the board 3x, 1 win, 1 place, and one show and it's odds were $46.20, $18, and $69.80 in those 3 races. Maybe the tricky conditions today might trigger something out of this HEAD CASE today?

5th race: 2,4 top/bot 6/7 and a 2-6-7 tri box.

7th race: I hope the regulars just watch to see what happens with the multiple bets I'm gonna make in this race. Maybe just pick one of the options I got below. But, I'm on all these wild plays today for real...

Tri box - 1/3/5 and 1/3/6 OF COURSE.

Zactas - 6,9 OVER 1,3,5,6

Win/Place #2 (12-1 M.L.) Best jockey in race, VERY good trainer. Ran one race last year and it was his first lifetime start. It was a MSW $45K at Philly on an OFF track and he moidered the bastages at 6 fur. Took a vacation, back today after two recent terrible efforts and has the same conditions (distance, off track) today as that MSW race. All this means that they expected VERY good things would come from this horse and THEY WERE RIGHT. But something went wrong and today we'll see how bad that "something" was.

Let's see if we gots anything left to play with for the late races.

G.L.

 

[hogman14]

GL Jimmy.

 

[Jimboski]

no. 4 in this 8th race looks ready.

 

[Jimboski]

didn't start loading yet.

 

[Jimboski]

thanks, HM. Wonder if it's worth the troubles, scratches galore today. They're loading for the 8th now.

 

[Jimboski]

More later, gotta check the 9th.

 

[Jimboski]

Gotta go by LOOKERS in the 9th, nuthin to cap.

1,4,5 are the lookers. Still 3 mins. to post.

 

[Jimboski]

ya could add the no. 10, they ain't even at the starting gate yet.

 

[Jimboski]

Looks like Hammy is around ... and several "Cwazy Names"

sure hope that no.9 doesn't beat me/us.

 

[Jimboski]

wrap it up

wrap it up

SOMB

Two favorites in a total field of dirt bags on a sloppy track, SHEET.

You know what that means... :00x4

Despite a couple of stinkin zactas and scratch refunds - doesn't look like I can hold up with the current conditions at good ole Philly. It needs to clear up for tomorrow for me to play anything.

Otherwise it's gonna be -
a

Day

yeah, we still gotta do this once in a while in the winters down here.

 

[Jimboski]

Let the grass grow and let's hit the twack

Let the grass grow and let's hit the twack

Things may be looking up a bit cause:
- I see that I actually got more bets refunded yesterday than I thought due to scwatches so it wasn't as bad as I thought with the slop and all.
- MUCH BETTER news -> it'll clear up right from daybreak today and gonna be breezy too.. that means a decent track; maybe even fast. .
- Aside from quite a few unknowns (to me, that is) running today - field sizes, distances, and the kind of purses I like to see are all good signs for today.

1st race:
Top rated is a a favorite and a pricey hoss. Hmmm... think I'll go with the pricey one, no. 7, Bavaria. I've seen this horse run excellent races in it's proper class and this one is a fighter IF it's up to it's game today. Beware though cause, since it got claimed and in the hands of an incompetent trainer, it's races have been terrible of late. Just consider it as hoss with good odds that has a chance. Fot me it's gonna be 7 top/bot with 2,4,5 and the anti-ass-burner play -> no. 7 to WIN. It's another IFFY bet, but may be worth a shot.

DON'T let me take you off the favorite if you like that one (it clearly LOOKS best in the pps) ba.. ba.. but, that one (no.4) was claimed in it's last AND was was a beaten FAV., finishing 5th in that race AND was scratched by the STEWARDS the first time it's new owner tried to run it after his claim. Some real negatives there. On the positive side - new trainer is a very good one.


2nd race:
The key hoss in here is the no. 4, Bird Tale (7/2). Not gonna tempt anybody to play this one the risky way that I gonna play it (trifectas with a BUNCH under the no. 4). Just to win and maybe place is probably a better way to play this one, but I'm gonna take a shot with hitting the tri this time. No. 1 is a serious contender and it's M.L. of 8-1 means it gets a decent Win bet. AND there is the anti-ass- burner insurance play -> exactas 6,7. OVER 1,4. Sometimes ya just gotta spread it around.

4th race
Like these combos... . . 1,3 top./bot 2,4 and 3 t/b with 7,8 (a stretch) and of couse the magic trifecta nos. 1-3-6 boxed. BTW, that no. 3, Reflected Way, is one of the real old timers at this track. Horse has a very nice record and, even at 7yrs. old, can still smokem when right.

6th race
Hard to believe that no. 8 will have a tough time with these after competing with MUCH better in N.Y. There are 2 LONGshots in this race that I definitely do not want to see hit the wire first without me. Both should go off at huge odds... nos. 7 and 10. Gotta see what they look like in the prerace first.


That should hold yas for awhile today LOL. I'll try to get back to see the remaining races live.

 

[Hamster]

R7: Provential Bid WPS
Hopefully, the 6 & 7 duel for the lead early and tire out in the final furlong.

 

[hogman14]

GL Hammy

 

[zlovell1]

Race 8

Number 6 to win

 

[zlovell1]

Race 9

Trifecta box 4,6,8 :0corn