Philly -Saturday

[Jimboski]

There's some VERY interesting races today and I looked forward toward to capping them. After doing so, I gotta say that I'm kinda hesitant about betting them . Thems (the playable races that is) are Philly style Breeders Cup type races; that is - NOT because they have high class race hosses, but rather the races are between CLONES. They're wide open and, even worser, the longshots are clones.

Only 3 playables for today:

4th race: Prob. best to post the rated hosses and that would be 3,4. I don't care much for the no. 4 but I am interested in a 12/1 shot, no. 1, Again, Again, Again. I've played this one plenty of times and I believe this one can do MUCH better than it's last indicates. That last race was TERRIBLE. I'm using this one in my "magic nos." tri and also in exactas with a few others. Safer bet could be across the board or just win/place.

6th race: Tough race to figure, so here's the rating - 1,2,7. I'll be on my usual exacta type play... . . 1,5 top/bot 2/7.

8th race: VERY nice and interesting race. TO WATCH, that is. Ratings like the no. 7 but I don't see why and I don't care for the connections on that one. Worser, Mooch is on the M.L. fav. (no. 8) and NOT betting him no matter who he's on is usallay a BIG mistake. I'm going with the longest odds horse (actually tied with with the no. 5 for those honors), no. 2, On a Star. Can't be that confident about this cause the horse is making a HUGE move up especially with the limited experience she has. Her last race was in a Alw. $25k and she didn't even win it... . EGAD! Still, I see kinks (problems?) in the armor of the others in this race who ran vs. Graded Stakes horses and "Star's" pp lines tell me that she's a real gamer. Not sure how I'm gonna bet her, but she is my key for this race. Oh, of course, small tickets.

Ya Gotta Believe Dept.

Took last week off, from posting that is, cause this place is just too dead.

Got quite a few views on that thread I wrote that said, "NO picks, just thoughts/results" or something like that. Even though thems were all or mostly "Guests" or MJers without a keyboard, I'll post here my results from last week and I still can't believe it. Sat, Sun were pretty much break evens (+ or - 15 to 20 bucks). Monday was a losing day but not big losses and it took some luck to get me through Tue$, but SURE ENOUGH... .. . right off the bat in the 4th race, the no. 8 hoss gets placed first due to an inquiry/objection and that resulted in getting me the lunker for the week - a $202 zacta. Just unreal.

This "Lucky Tue$day" bit is starting to make ME a believer of this "nonsense" stuff. I'm about ready to start believing in Santa Claus again. AND I am definitely gonna forget about them $1 exactas (play those if I'm not that confident about the plicks) IF the day is Tue$day; may raise to 3 or 4 dollar zacks. Yeah, I only collected $101 on that "Lucky Tue$day" zack on Tue$day. :s2:
Good Luck with the upcomming footsball season y'awl. I'm really looking forward to them college bawlers.

 

[Jimboski]

HUH?

HUH?

:wtf: ONLY 20 STINKIN views???

:mj07:

:mj07:

I got more than double that many in my "Personal Profile" profile page. Hmm... maybe thems interested in info about fishing in sunny FLA or something? LOL
I did some snooping around this place and see that there's something about reputations; never saw that before. Now, after all the time and effort I put into figuring out the nags, MOST, by far, was about my football (spreadsheet) picks :facepalm:

I gotta thank Hammy and Hogman for the repution points Re: hosses. There's one good one in there that I just gotta share, it's from back in 2011 and it's from some kid (I guess) whose elevator doesn't quite make it to the top floor. He gave me plenty of GOOD reputation points and his comment was, "always picks losers" :mj07:

Hey, I can't blame the MJers for having more interest in racing places like Del Mar or esp. Saratoga... but, I gotta go where the "grass is greener" and there is almost as much of it there as those two big time racing twacks. Some races have much more.

OK, today's results :

4th race - score 1 for the Ratings and definitely ZERO for me (I did NOT like that no. 4 hoss ratings pick)

6th race - finish was 7-1-2 so give the Ratings ONE pt. for the tri and 1/2 pt for me for catching a whooping $5.80 zacta :mj12: (never used this one before, kinda ugly)

8th race: 8/7 zacta paid $25.80 so give me a 1 and the Ratings a 1 1/2. I was really looking forward to see that there no. 2 in this race but that one got scwatced. Prob. a good thing if there was a good reason to do so. I went with the ratings hoss and, of course, had it with Mooch's hoss (plus 2 others).

Pretty much spun some tires today but that beats losing in my book.

G.L. with them big time wace twacks and you know what else (changed signature)

 

[Dogfish]

Jimbo, after the beating i took at del mar yesterday., i hope my reputation points says he played to many races....and drank to many beers :drinky

I am on corn cob time ( midwest) by the time i get goin your races are almost over...I still enjoy your posts you put a little different twist to it

So today its:0003 and back to work....

 

[Jimboski]

I know what you mean, Dogfish

I know what you mean, Dogfish

I think there are many race tracks that are just impossible to beat. Play too many races ESP. especially at too many tracks and you have no chance at beating this game.

BTW, DF... this upcomming race at Philly (7th) has a hoss that's currently 15 to 1 and I think those odds are WAY too high.. the hoss is no. 5, The High Priest. If you want a "LOOKER " report and you're still onlne, I'll get back to ya on this one. Still 10 mins to post for this race.

thanks for stopping in.

 

[Jimboski]

Looker in 7th is...

Looker in 7th is...

no. 3 (19 to 1) a they just got to the starting gate.

 

[Jimboski]

Results..

Results..

ANOTHER dang 2-favorites exacta and this is really starting to be too Muckin Futch. I keep records and one of the reason's I establish "PLAYABLE" waces is that the race has PRICE PO-TEN-TIAL. Too, too many of these races are coming up with exactas comprised of BOTH of the mutha jumpin favorites. And, even worser, even the non-playable races are resulting the same dang way. And that is why my $500+ plus exacta I nailed a couple of weeks ago is almost all gone. This twack is turning into a "Chalk Heaven".

I usually try to "beef up" the Ratings picks with a longshot IF IT FIGURES or two thrown in and that is costing me. Grrr!

I just got online a short while ago and there where only 3 playables today... I just watched the 7th (LAST playable wace) live and gotta see how I did in the 2nd and the 4th.

Anybody interested, chime in... otherwise GOOD LUCK the rest of the way.

 

[Jimboski]

Guess what?

Guess what?

Better yet, don't guess what ... I'll tellyas what!

Took a shot with the last race, SMALL tickets of course. I had it down to the two favorites.. nos. 6 and 7. It was tough to separate them, but I gave it a try and came up with no. 7. Both were 2/1 at the time I bet. I went with the no. 7 and did the ole "top/bot" exactas thingy. That is, no. 7 top/bot with the 3 longest shots in the race.

Results ?

8 Denizenofthewoods Hernandez Ortega Pierre 118 74.40 26.60 15.20
6 Gabriel's Flame Beato Inoel 116 4.00 3.40
5 Repentant Castillo Angel 122 4.20


Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$1 Pick 3 $214.30 1-6-8 (3 Correct) $6,061
Pick 4 $315.60 1/3-1/3/12-6-8 (4 Correct) $7,253
$2 Pick 6 $95.20 2-5-1/3-1/3/12-6-8 (5 Correct) (Carryover: $3023) $948
$2 Daily Double $98.00 6-8 $8,881
$2 Exacta $293.40 8-6 $67,502
Superfecta $129.02 8-6-5-7 $21,198
$2 Trifecta $1,471.00 8-6-5 $38,795

By the way, to add insult to injury, I made one side play -> a 4 dollar side play on no. 5 to win, but that doesn't matter.

Doesn't hoss wacin REALLY SUCK sometimes?

 

[SwanDawg]

ANOTHER dang 2-favorites exacta and this is really starting to be too Muckin Futch. I keep records and one of the reason's I establish "PLAYABLE" waces is that the race has PRICE PO-TEN-TIAL. Too, too many of these races are coming up with exactas comprised of BOTH of the mutha jumpin favorites. And, even worser, even the non-playable races are resulting the same dang way. And that is why my $500+ plus exacta I nailed a couple of weeks ago is almost all gone. This twack is turning into a "Chalk Heaven".

I usually try to "beef up" the Ratings picks with a longshot IF IT FIGURES or two thrown in and that is costing me. Grrr!

I just got online a short while ago and there where only 3 playables today... I just watched the 7th (LAST playable wace) live and gotta see how I did in the 2nd and the 4th.

Anybody interested, chime in... otherwise GOOD LUCK the rest of the way.

I dunno what to say - other than it's the way a lot of tracks run. Those bullrings like Philly - Charlestown - Mountaineer - Delware have runs where its chalk chalk chalk for what seems like weeks. I think maybe that the race secretary has to set it up like to keep those top tier trainers happy at those tracks. So they can keep their owners of the top horses that are barned there willing to keep them there.

It's the reason I chose the so-called Power tracks way more frequent to look at - where everyone training there is generally out for blood. It's no shenanigans that appears to happen from time-to-time at those smaller tracks.

Anyway the only time I look at the races there at Philly Parx is on Monday & Tuesday's - and that's only when they have a field of 8 or more horses.

Do you keep track of the races you say are "playable"? Maybe see the odds range of those horses that usually win those type races? I hear you say "ratings" what are the final odds of those rated horses in them playable races? Use that info to see if them races are playable when its post time.

Meaning if that top rated horse goes off at 3/1 or less and he doesn't hit enough times to get you ROI he should be passed over for the win while when that guy is say 4/1 or higher the ROI is worth the risk to play. Then do the same thing with the ones rated 2nd - 3rd and 4th.

Just keep on plugging away Jimbo and enjoy the game as much as possible.

Dawg

 

[Jimboski]

Forgot to write this result...

Forgot to write this result...

I think there are many race tracks that are just impossible to beat. Play too many races ESP. especially at too many tracks and you have no chance at beating this game.

BTW, DF... this upcomming race at Philly (7th) has a hoss that's currently 15 to 1 and I think those odds are WAY too high.. the hoss is no. 5, The High Priest. If you want a "LOOKER " report and you're still onlne, I'll get back to ya on this one. Still 10 mins to post for this race.

thanks for stopping in.

That "Priest" hoss ran 3rd at 11 to 1. Not good enough for me.

 

[Jimboski]

Sorry, I didn't see your reply before

Sorry, I didn't see your reply before

Appreciate the feedback, SwanDawg. Couldn't agree more with your point about restricting plays to Mondays and Tuesdays. I would be sitting much prettier if I did just that.

I just track playable races and got records for everyone of them I've played for YEARS. This current streak appears to be the worst stretch of favorites, ESP. with exactas which is my main focus, in quite sometime. Here's something interesting regarding your point about checking the ratings to see the odds for the top rated horse and maybe ignore those with very low odds.... I focus on exactas and a GOOD no. of those races when a top rated horse is low odds resulted in a VERY nice exacta payout due the longshot that comes in with the top rated favorite. You know, I didn't go through the hassle of figuring out the ratings for today's last race cause it wasn't a "playable" race and I'm pretty sure the rating would have put the no. 6 or 7 on TOP. If so, there's a great example of how using the top rated horse (if it was the no. 6) with some BIG odds other horse woulda worked.

Tellya, I've run into too many ass burners lately like changing a number on my plays at the last second and blowing a BIG payoff and I very rarely make that mistake too. And it really sucks when I put in about a half hour total time to find a "Playable" race, go through the timely rating process, and figure out how to put the dang nos. togetther and then it takes ONE stinkin second to substitute one of those nos. just before betting the dang race and blowing a 3 figure (or very close to it) exacta payoff that I put all that time into. That happened to me twice in the past few weeks.

I see from the amount of effort you put into this sport that you really enjoy this game and that's GREAT. I'll always enjoy horse racing but gotta admit that I don't as much as I used when I used to bet like you do ... you know, getting into the BIG races, BIG wace twacks, bigger bets. Funny thing is that I've left the game on occasion for even a year or two and didn't miss it a bit... really strange. But, I always came back

Gotta get me another tube of Preparation H after today's last race, Dawg.

Just a thought, but if you post fewer tracks and fewer picks... I think you'll get more attention to your posts. But playing them the way you enjoy the game as long as you don't go overboard is the most important thing. IMO, those highly competitive races with full fields of horses whose owners are coming into the race with everything they got are the most exciting and enjoyable races. But I've learned to steer clear of betting them things; they're usually very expensive entertainment (for me, anyway). My biggest losses in hoss racing was with the the utlimate yearly contest... the Breeders Cup. After wasting my time trying to figure out them clones a LONG time ago... I don't even watch those bastages any more. The Triple Crown is a different story though.

I'm looking forward to reading about you hitting one of them Saratoga bonanza payofffs soon.

 

[SwanDawg]

Appreciate the feedback, SwanDawg. Couldn't agree more with your point about restricting plays to Mondays and Tuesdays. I would be sitting much prettier if I did just that.

I just track playable races and got records for everyone of them I've played for YEARS. This current streak appears to be the worst stretch of favorites, ESP. with exactas which is my main focus, in quite sometime. Here's something interesting regarding your point about checking the ratings to see the odds for the top rated horse and maybe ignore those with very low odds.... I focus on exactas and a GOOD no. of those races when a top rated horse is low odds resulted in a VERY nice exacta payout due the longshot that comes in with the top rated favorite. You know, I didn't go through the hassle of figuring out the ratings for today's last race cause it wasn't a "playable" race and I'm pretty sure the rating would have put the no. 6 or 7 on TOP. If so, there's a great example of how using the top rated horse (if it was the no. 6) with some BIG odds other horse woulda worked.

Tellya, I've run into too many ass burners lately like changing a number on my plays at the last second and blowing a BIG payoff and I very rarely make that mistake too. And it really sucks when I put in about a half hour total time to find a "Playable" race, go through the timely rating process, and figure out how to put the dang nos. togetther and then it takes ONE stinkin second to substitute one of those nos. just before betting the dang race and blowing a 3 figure (or very close to it) exacta payoff that I put all that time into. That happened to me twice in the past few weeks.

I see from the amount of effort you put into this sport that you really enjoy this game and that's GREAT. I'll always enjoy horse racing but gotta admit that I don't as much as I used when I used to bet like you do ... you know, getting into the BIG races, BIG wace twacks, bigger bets. Funny thing is that I've left the game on occasion for even a year or two and didn't miss it a bit... really strange. But, I always came back

Gotta get me another tube of Preparation H after today's last race, Dawg.

Just a thought, but if you post fewer tracks and fewer picks... I think you'll get more attention to your posts. But playing them the way you enjoy the game as long as you don't go overboard is the most important thing. IMO, those highly competitive races with full fields of horses whose owners are coming into the race with everything they got are the most exciting and enjoyable races. But I've learned to steer clear of betting them things; they're usually very expensive entertainment (for me, anyway). My biggest losses in hoss racing was with the the utlimate yearly contest... the Breeders Cup. After wasting my time trying to figure out them clones a LONG time ago... I don't even watch those bastages any more. The Triple Crown is a different story though.

I'm looking forward to reading about you hitting one of them Saratoga bonanza payofffs soon.

Them ass -burning-number-changers is what drives a lot of us punters away from the game. Ya know that Zig-Zagging thing. Sounds like you just need to get back to basics and let the wins come to you instead of you chasing them.

About me:

I run these things from late March till the Breeders Cup - just about but NOT every weekend. Then I shut it down for the backside of Football and the Basketball run. Clears my head, but I've been doing this for a few years now, and I yes do enjoy the big payouts. Those are what brings me back.

Yes I play a few different tracks in one sitting and seemingly a lot of races, but I really only average about 10 races a day when it all breaks down. My average win rate is 1 in 4 races so I like when my winners pay out at 4/1 or higher odds (I likes them at 6/1+). Usually when I have the winner the work generally brings in an exacta as well.

Hopefully one of them $300 to $550 exacta's come soon enough.

If you play tomorrow I'll be sure to stop in to see what you got Jimbo!

Best of Luck!

Dawg

 

[Jimboski]

... . . If you play tomorrow I'll be sure to stop in to see what you got Jimbo!

I appreciate somebody who communicates here, SD. There's always a chance that those who do may pick up something from this stuff.

Your last post reads like you got your act together. If you can keep up an average of 1 out of 4 winners I'm sure that an average like that ESP. at tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar in the mix means that you ARE on the right track alright. I don't know exactly why I've become a Philly "specialist". I think it's due to several reasons.... when I first got down here to sunny FLA, I didn't bother with the races at all for about 2 or 3 years, well, EXCEPT for driving down to Calder about 2 times a month. There was no online horse racing sites (that I knew about anyways) and no OTB in Fla. I did pretty good at Calder and really enjoyed watching them live. After a few more years, I found online betting and because I was away from N.Y. racing for so long, I decided to play Suffolk and Philly online especially since Calder was closed and Gulfstream (YUCK) was running. I never been to Suffolk but my sister lives iabout 10 miles from Philly Park and anytime I visited her in the past (when I was in N.J.) I would stop in Philly Park. I always felt that the bettor has a better chance at them little "bull ring" twacks than the big, long stretched, ovals.

To cut to the chase..... Suffolk didn't run in the winter mos. so I started to focus on Philly and ONLY played that track. It got to the point where I played that track every day they ran (4 days/week) and NOT every race. I got to the point where I got VERY familiar with the horse colony there (I really like the fact that most of Philly horses STAY AT PHILLY and not many shippers go there). Basically, I got to know EVERYTHING there is to know about the owners, trainers, track bias, jocks, etc.; hell, I got to know that place like the back of my hand. I've been playing horses for a long, long time so I could handicap (NOT necessarily beat) any track, but with the added knowledge I have with Philly - I feel like I'm playing with only a half deck of cards at any other track.

Getting back to your average win % - I THINK my top rated horse wins even a bit better than 1 out of 4 times, more like 1 for every 3 races. That logically would lead me to consider PROGRESSIVE wins bets. :nono:
I didn't calculate my RATING win %, but the key is to see how long losing streaks can run which is why progressive betting is suicide. Sure enough, there were too many long losing streaks and that leads you to a time where you can find yourself betting 3 figures on a nag in one single race. :00x4

Oh yeah, there were some nice and long winning streaks but those don't boost the bankaroo as much as the long losing streaks chop down the bankaroo. Yeah, yeah, there are ways you can set up a progression that cushions the losses but I ain't getting involved with that.

I may adjust my betting, only a bit, while this terrible favorites thingy continues at Philly. I'm finding that the Ratings are doing really good during the favorites trend AND they're not bias toward the favorites too much at all. Too long to write about the adjustment here (hope you didn't fall asleep yet...LOL).

I wasn't planning on posting anything for today, but since you're interested... I'm gonna post what I got.

Oh, the Quote (above) part? Errrr.... make sure you save something for Tue$