Phoenix

ShinerGrinder

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I think the Roush/Fenway cars are going to be a lot better this year and Biffle has been pretty solid at this track.

.5 - Biffle +4000
 

jsmith1218

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Very nice getting Edwards at +2000!!! I am going with Edwards +1500 and Kurt Busch +1500 to win. Last year my book let me play top 3 finish but so far this year does not offer this, not sure why.
Good Luck!
 

Old School

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http://www.fftoolbox.com/nascar/article.cfm?article_id=207


NASCAR Picks for Phoenix


by Brian Polking, Tuesday, February 25, 2014 8:01:03 PM CST FFToolbox.com



Track Info:
Length: 1.000 miles
Shape: D-shaped Tri-Ov
Type: Short
Location: Avondale, Arizona
View Average Finishes



Although the Cup Series season officially got going last weekend, there is an old saying that the season really begins after the Daytona 500 is in the books. After all, the restrictor plates used at Daytona turns the racing into a battle of survival more than a battle of speed and handling. That will change this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway, and the flat, 1.0-mile oval with two different sets of corners will be a tough early test for all the teams.
The trip to Phoenix will also be a bit of a challenge for fantasy owners, and while it isn't on the same level as Daytona in terms of unpredictability, it is still tough to have total confidence in a lineup when you aren't entirely sure which drivers are going to live up to expectations. Win or lose this weekend, fantasy owners need to use Sunday's race as a learning experience because it is the first indicator of which teams are ahead of the game to start the 2014 season and which have some catching up to do.


1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Johnson is the easiest choice for the top spot this weekend. In the last 20 races at the track his 5.9 average finish is five spots better than any other driver. Meanwhile, he has only finished worse than seventh three times during the span while piling up 13 top-five finishes, including four victories.


2. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser/Jimmy Johns, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He has been on an absolute tear at Phoenix lately. Harvick has a 4.3 average finish in the last four starts at PIR, finishing either first or second three times. Overall, Harvick is a four-time winner at the track, and he hasn't finished outside the top 20 since the 2009 season.


3. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

His 10.9 average finish at Phoenix is the second-best among active drivers, and Hamlin has been even better at the track recently. In addition to logging six top-12 finishes in his last seven starts at PIR, he has three top-three finishes in his last four starts at the track. During the stretch, Hamlin picked up a victory in the March race in 2012.



4. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Kahne has flipped a switch at Phoenix the past few seasons and has emerged as one of the best in the series at the track. He has finished sixth or better four times in his last six starts at PIR and fourth or better three times in his last five starts. During the stretch he won the fall race in 2011 and was second in the most recent race at Phoenix.


5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

From 2009 through 2012, Junior managed just one top-10 finish in eight starts at Phoenix. He changed that in a big way last year, finishing fifth in the March race and fourth in the fall event. Junior actually won back-to-back races at PIR In 2003 and 2004, and if last year was any indication, a return trip to victory lane could be on tap this weekend.


6. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

His lone win at Phoenix to date came back in his second start at the track in 2008, but Busch has been delivering consistent results at the track despite not returning to victory lane. He has seven top-15 finishes in his last nine starts at the track, and in his last four races at PIR, he has finished seventh or better three times.


7. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

Although his 17.1 average finish isn't great, there is no doubt that Keselowski has figured out Phoenix the past couple of years. Since the start of the 2012 season, he has compiled a 6.5 average finish, finishing 11th or better in all four starts and sixth or better three times.


8. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

His consistency at Phoenix has more than stood the test of time. He has an 11.5 average finish in 30 starts at the track, and he has seven top-15s in his last nine starts. Gordon has been particularly strong in the March race, finishing ninth or better in four straight starts and picking up a pair of top-two finishes.


9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Busch has driven for several teams in his career, but he has always been successful at Phoenix. He has eight top-15s in his last 11 starts at the track, including three in his last four starts. Busch's results the past couple of seasons are particularly intriguing since he managed to deliver solid finishes despite driving for smaller teams like Phoenix Racing and Furniture Row Racing.



10. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He is the defending winner of this weekend's race, and he is definitely a driver that aggressive owners should target. After all, he has finished inside the top 10 just three times in his last seven starts at Phoenix, but those finishes include a second-place effort and a pair of wins. Needless to say, Edwards has a ton of upside this weekend.



11. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

With three top-15s in his last four starts at Phoenix, Kenseth hasn't been bad at the track, but he hasn't lived up to his typical standards either. He has just one top-10 finish in his last six starts at PIR, and he has gone 12 starts at the track without a top-five finish. Kenseth should have a decent outing, but owners will likely be better served saving him for another week.



12. Tony Stewart, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Stewart's career resume at Phoenix is impressive, but he has been a little inconsistent at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. In nine starts at PIR with his new team, he has four top-10s, but he has also finished outside the top 15 in five starts. Throw in the fact that the race will be the first real test for his surgically repaired leg, and Stewart isn't quite the slam dunk fantasy option he often is.

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Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Phoenix

by Brian Polking, Tuesday, February 25, 2014 8:01:03 PM CST FFToolbox.com



13. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He has been on an absolute roll ay Phoenix in recent years. In his last eight starts at the track, he has six top-10 finishes. More importantly, he has five top-five finishes during the stretch, including a win. Consider him an excellent addition to fantasy rosters in all formats.


14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Phoenix has never been his strongest track, but Biffle has managed to produce decent numbers in recent years. He has four top-15s in his last five starts at PIR and hasn't finished outside the top 20 in his last seven starts. Biffle still does his best work at the intermediate ovals, but he can be counted on for a solid showing this weekend.


15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

There has been no middle ground for Logano at Phoenix. In 10 starts at the track, he has finished 11th or better five times and has finished outside the top 20 five times. Meanwhile, he has never had more than two good or bad finishes in a row so it's tough to know what to expect from him this weekend. Still, the possibility of a top-10 finish is definitely there for those owners that are feeling lucky.


16. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

The normally consistent Bowyer has been rather mediocre at Phoenix throughout his career. He has a 17.1 average finish in 17 starts at the track, and he has gone 11 straight starts without logging a top-finish. Worse yet, Bowyer has finished 20th or worse five times in his last seven starts at PIR.


17. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

While he has is still looking for his first top-10 at Phoenix, Almirola has been solid at the track the past two years. He has finished in the top 20 in his last four starts, finishing 16th or better three times during the stretch. Almirola should be one of the more reliable sleeper options this weekend.


18. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The sample size is small, but Stenhouse's performance at Phoenix bodes well for his potential this weekend. He finished 16th in his track debut in March and followed it up with a 12th-place run at the fall. Even if he simply repeats his results from last season, Stenhouse will make a solid sleeper option this weekend.


19. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

After years of being atrocious at Phoenix, Menard has turned himself into a decent racer at the track. He finished outside the top 20 in his first eight starts at PIR, but he has finished in the top 20 five times in his last six starts. Menard still isn't a top fantasy option by any means, but he can at least be counted on to challenge for a top-20 this weekend.


20. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford/Clorox, JTG Daugherty Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He is a bit of an unknown this weekend because he doesn't have many starts under his belt with JTG Daugherty Racing, but Allmendinger's career numbers at Phoenix make him an intriguing sleeper this weekend. In nine starts at the track, he has compiled a solid 15.7 average finish and has eight top-20 finishes.



21. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemical/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The rookie will be making his Phoenix debut in the Cup Series so there isn't any data to fall back on. However, he does have the benefit of driving for Richard Childress Racing. The organization has placed all three of its driver in the top 20 in each of the past three races at the track so Dillon should have a chance to make an instant impact.


22. Martin Truex, Jr., #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Truex has been fairly reliable at Phoenix throughout his career. In his last 10 starts, he has eight top-20 finishes, including six top-15s. That being said, he only has one top-five finish during the stretch and will be making his first start at the track with Furniture Row Racing. Thanks to his limited upside and the unknowns of a new team, owners may want to temper expectations just a bit.



23. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Phoenix has never really been kind to Vickers. In 14 starts at the track, he has compiled a 22.9 average finish. Worse yet, he has gone eight straight starts at the track without logging a top-15 finish, and he only has one top-20 effort during the stretch. It could be a long afternoon for Vickers.



24. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Ambrose got off to a decent start at Phoenix, but he has been heading in the wrong direction at the track lately. After three top-15s in his first four starts at PIR, he has finished outside the top 15 in six of his last seven starts at the track, including four straight.

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Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Phoenix

by Brian Polking, Tuesday, February 25, 2014 8:01:03 PM CST FFToolbox.com

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25. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

It is tough to be optimistic about McMurray's chances this weekend. In his last 10 starts at the track, he only has one top-10 finish and only two top-15s. In fact, McMurray has finished outside the top 15 in his last six starts at the track and has four finishes outside the top 20 during the stretch.

26. Kyle Larson, #42 Target, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The highly-touted rookie will be making his Cup Series debut at Phoenix, and while experience is not on his side, he should have a solid setup to start with. Larson will be driving for a No. 42 team that has finished in the top 15 in the last five races at PIR, albeit with Juan Pablo Montoya behind the wheel. A wait-and-see approach is still the smarter choice for fantasy owners, but Larson could surprise this weekend.

27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C]

She finished outside the top 30 in both starts at Phoenix last year, but in her track debut in 2012, Patrick finished a respectable 17th. Perhaps more importantly, she has had some moderate success at flat tracks in her brief career. Patrick isn't a great sleeper option, but a top-25 could be in the cards.

28. Justin Allgaier, #51 Brandt, HScott Motorsports [Yahoo Class C]

He is a rookie in the Cup Series this season, but Allgaier actually made his debut at Phoenix in the series last fall. He finished an unimpressive 31st in the start, but HScott Motorsports has made some serious improvements over the offseason. If the changes are worth even a few spots, he could challenge for a top-25 this weekend.

29. Joe Nemechek, #66 LandCastle Title, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Nemechek has been a field-filler for the last several seasons, but he will get behind the wheel of a legitimate ride this weekend at Phoenix. He will pilot the No. 66 for Michael Waltrip Racing, and while Nemechek is certainly past his prime, piloting solid equipment should allow him to have his best run in several seasons.

30. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class B]

His upside is very limited, but Mears has been somewhat consistent at Phoenix lately. In his last nine starts at the track, he has finished 27th or better eight times. Mears actually finished in the top 15 at Phoenix last March, and while another top-15 is probably a little optimistic, a top-25 is possible
 

Looselugs

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May 5, 2005
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trying this one

Larson over Bayne -110

that Kenseth over Kyle is tempting at +155 ..I`ll pass just to see how it unfolds.


gl
lugs
 

DeadPrez

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Hoping Harvick comes back up a little bit on the odds to win. Holding out for that, but closer to race time I'll be pulling the trigger on him, he seems ahead of the competition here this weekend despite not qualifying in the top 10. Lowest odds I can remember seeing on him in quite some time.

Seems like the Chevy's are running the best. Top 7 in happy hour. Kyle Larson looks very strong so far this weekend, not sure if he can put it together just yet but he's got a fast car. Ganassi as a whole is fast.

To Win:

Harvick +450
JJ +550
Kyle Larson +6500

Top 3:

Harvick +190
Jr. +400
Larson +1500

Matchups:

Biffle over Newman (-115)
Jr. over Kyle (-125)

Happy Race Day :0008
 
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