Picks for Saturday 9/20

[Nickelback]

Not the best week in college football last time out, but we'll plug away starting with these which I have played early because I believe the lines will move up on these teams:

BEST BET: 10% UCONN -13 over Buffalo 1st half

UConn started off well against BC before all came crashing down. Yes they will look forward to Virginia Tech a little, but they need to kick a little tail in the first half before they can start looking ahead! I think after this loss, UCONN comes out for a little blood early then play conservative and walk in for the win. Worm44 already mentioned the problems Buffalo is having with 13 players missing practice. Incredible. .. we have already seen what happens to a team like Arizona with ok talent when coaching goes south, but Buffalo has NO talent and are experiencing the same problems. I think UCONN hangs 21 in the first half without much of a problem (most likely more) and Buffalo will be lucky to score anything until the UCONN walkons come in and even then I think Buffalo will be lucky to hang around. Best value is this first half play as we have no idea what UCONN will do in the 2nd with Virginia Tech next week.


7% Florida -3 over Tennessee

With all respect to volfan, I think his Vols fall here by double digits. I know that's a bold statement, but most have forgotten how well this Gator team was handling Miami before the Canes woke up. The Vols do not have the same team to get behind and try to find a way back in a game. First big game for Tennessee all season and the Gators already had theirs. I think the Gators stay focused and take care of business THIS time. Even though a loss is never a great thing, I think the loss to Miami will stay in the back of the Gator's minds when they have a big game. . .

Some stats:

Vols are 1-8-1 ATS in 1st away game w/Fulmer
Vols are 1-6-1 ATS Conference Openers
Vols are 0-35-1 ATS when they lose SU

Lay the points and sit back for this one!

 

[gman2]

uconn 21-3 at half and 34-14 final?

will that work for you? lol.

seriously, i think we'll know uconn's mindset early on.

it could be an ugly blowout and i could be dead wrong, or uconn could fall victim to the lookahead.

hopefully we can both hit our plays.

re: vols/gators, im a little gator-biased, although not as much now that zook is in charge. im a huge spurrier fan. this has been a weird series. that being said, it does some seem like gators or nothing in this one.

gl buddy

 

[THE WIZZARD]

GL SAT NICKEL......I'M ALSO LOOKIN INTO THIS GAME.


WIZZ.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL Nickel! Really like the Gators. Nice write-up on your 1st half play, I am now on it!

HORNS

 

[Nickelback]

gman,

Always respect your plays and great analysis but I just can't see a bet on the Bulls at all here as they are completely at the mercy of UConn. . .they are basically playing for nothing at all. . . not even their coach! But of course, this may be the right spot for you and only time will tell. I still feel that asking UConn to win by 2 tds in the first half isn't a big deal and should happen if this team commits to playing the first half.


Wizzard,

Will look forward to your picks as always. . . hopefully we're on the same page as you know how things usually go when that happens!

 

[hellah10]

IAm taking that UConn -13 1st half

 

[gman2]

nickel:

heres a stat for ya (via the uconnhuskies.com website):
uconn definitely capable of jumping out early. we'll see

FIRST THINGS FIRST
The UConn football team has made a habit recently of starting hot, a trend that the Huskies hope to reestablish immediately in the wake of a 14-point first quarter by Boston College on Sept. 13. Continuing back to last season, UConn had outscored its opponents by a combined 89-3 in the first quarter of its last seven games prior to Boston College, with Indiana posting the lone field goal. Prior to the Eagles? Horace Dodd?s eight-yard TD run, UConn had not allowed an offensive touchdown in the first quarter since Oct. 5, 2002 when Miami?s Willis McGahee scored on a 15-yard run at the Orange Bowl, a stretch that covered 115:44 of first quarter playing time. The last touchdown of any kind scored against UConn in the first quarter of a game prior to BC came when Temple?s Zamir Cobb fell on a muffed punt in the end zone on Oct. 19, 2002. Since the start of the 2002 season, UConn is 7-1 when holding its opponent without a first quarter touchdown and 1-6 when the opponent scores a first quarter touchdown.

 

[Nickelback]

Well lets just hope the Bulls fail to score a first half td or else they may win straight up! Appreciate the post gman and would like nothing more than to see both of us cash on this one Saturday.

 

[Nickelback]

Coming from a newsletter called "The Edge":

"Buffalo may be the worst college football team in the country. Last week Buffalo hosted Colgate, that?s right that Ivy League team. In a non-lined game Buffalo LOST to Colgate 38-15. The reason they scheduled Colgate is so they could win one game this season. Oh well, looks like a 0-12 season for the Bulls. Not only did they lose to Colgate they allowed 621 yards of total offense while gaining only 243 yards. It was reported that Colgate held down the score in fear that if they won by too big of a margin Buffalo wouldn?t play them again."

The score was bad enough, but the difference in yards is absolutely ridiculous and the score doesn't show just how bad Colgate beat the Bulls. Never even thought to look at the stats of that particular game but it is hard to imagine Colgate putting up over 500 yards of offense on anybody. An uninspired UConn team can certainly do the same I don't care how much they look ahead to Virginia Tech.

Adding another 5% on to the play to make this most likely my biggest non bowl play of the year. Still listing as a 10% play. I expect UConn to win the first half by 28 points and cruise in from there.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

i'll join ya.

 

[Nickelback]

5% Michigan -7 over Oregon

Will buy the hook if I have to. . . gonna watch this line for a while before I play it, but I'm on the Wolves here.

Several reasons:

First, everyone likes to revert back to how Michigan played the past couple years and rationalize how that performance will impact this game. I just don't buy into it. . . everyone said the same back in 97 and we all know what happend to that team. The ONLY way to beat this Michigan team THIS year is to stop the run (and pressure Navarre with blitz packages so the team must gamble against the run) and come at the Wolves with a balanced attack in every phase of the game. The only team that might be able to stop Michigan's rushing attack in my opinion is Oklahoma. Oregon is hardly the team. Everyone thinks that Michigan's secondary is suspect. . . you know, they might be to some degree, but Oregon IS NOT the same team as previous years. Their offensive attack is NOT as superior and consistent. Spoke with a buddy of mine who saw the Arizona/Oregon game and was surprised with what he told me. He said the Ducks are just not that great this year (despite the final score). . . their defense is weak as most Pac 10 teams so not a surprise there, but their offense is not as consistent as in years past. Apparently Oregon is still struggling with two different QBs which won't help them find a way to score on Michigan as often as they will need to. They struggled the first quarter and beginning of the second quarter because they couldn't find a way to score a touchdown against Arizona's defense. . . imagine the problems they will encounter with Michigan's. Bottom line is I don't see Oregon being able to stop Michigan's offensive attack as they don't have the defensive line to compete and their offense in my mind is suspect against a decent defense.