pile it on monday

[mack the knife]

5-6 last friday -1.3 units
YTD: 73-63 +17.2 units

nice to see everyone pile it on kennedy after the fall, when I was putting out the notice a week ago. oh well. put the stake through the heart!

todays wisdom from mack: most trends are meaningless. why? because the sample of games is too small to control for the other factors that determine outcomes. For example, "reds are 1-4 at night versus lefties on the road, averaging 2.1 runs/game." this is meaningless, but many rely on it, fading the reds and taking the under. Wouldn't it be important to know that the last 5 games that fit the criteria were all against randy johnson? It isn't lefties or the night, but johnson that is explaining the poor peformance.

now think about all the trends that get posted in support of plays, and ask if the trends, which are usually given out for free, predict the next game--they don't. why else would they be free? because that is what they are worth.

all plays for 1 unit except:

2 units atl under 8.5 +105

tor under 9 -110
chx under 9.5 -110
stl under 8.5 -105
det under 9 -110
tor +110
stl -170
balt -125
det +225
chx +125

mtk

 

[jmizeus]

fyi- reds game is an afternoon start! but gl

 

[no all]

good luck

 

[mack the knife]

thanks, but not enough to stop col "relief" pitching from screwing things up....hope that helps atl bettors....

mtk