Pinnacle, why must you torture me like this?

[Nick Douglas]

You are a great book, but you are too sharp for me to beat. I generally try to use the Ostrich technique when dealing with you but tonight curiosity got the better of me...

Why on earth are you shading your line in favor of Carolina on Thursday?!?

Gosh darn it all. Every piece of handicapping I can conjure up (except that old return from a road trip angle) tells me that Boston will win . Then I go browse Best Bettor and see that your line is shaded completely in favor of Carolina. What gives?

Aaaaargh. Why do I do this to myself? I tell myself to keep my head in the sand, and then I have one moment of weakness where I decide to take a quick little peep and this is what happens.

PASS! Damnit I hate to pass on a game like this. And this was going to be one of my rare chalk plays in hockey. Darn it all.

 

[kickserv]

three words for ya to ease the pain.........

TAKE THE UNDER 5.0 at $2.10........every single Carolina game has gone under......sweet sweet odds

and if ya really want to let Pinnacle have it........go to the CFL and take Winnipeg Blue Bombers at -3.0 ($1.94)......see CFL forum for more details....

there ya feel better now

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Nick - I have had similar problems this year with CRIS or betongames. It is never easy when trying to not look at other books. Hope you are able to make the right play. GL

HORNS

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks, guys. I have had a pretty good week this week so I've decided to pack it in until at least Monday. Best of luck to both of you.

 

[THE CINCH]

Carolina record in Boston

Carolina record in Boston

Carolina - 13-5 ats in Boston since 96 and 12-5-2 su
Carolina - 3-1 ats in Boston last 3 yrs and 3-1-0 su

Looks like Pinnacle is going with the trend.

 

[IX_Bender]

Re: Pinnacle, why must you torture me like this?

edited portion of original post, see below.

 

[kickserv]

I so agree IX.........so so agree

if I like a game I bet it.........I mean why make things complicated

 

[IX_Bender]

Re: Re: Pinnacle, why must you torture me like this?

Re: Re: Pinnacle, why must you torture me like this?

[It appears youve done some 'real game' handicapping based on your post, but you are compromising your own analysis based on what thousands of bettors on this game worldwide have pushed the line to at a sharper book.

This is laughable. UNREAL.
I would take the rest of the week off, and perhaps longer. Stating that you hate to lay off a game and the primary/only reasoning behind that is because of shading ????

More and more I see people monitoring consensus stats, tracking line movements, and wondering what Joe Public is on. While I agree that comparing lines and shopping for value is a must have tool for sports wagering, it is by far, nothing that would ever falter in my confidence of a game if Ive really done my homework. You cant make money in this business if you dont have confidence in your methods of handicapping or knowledge of the sport.

GL [/B]

 

[Nick Douglas]

I understand what you are saying, Bender. I don't worry about consensus reports or public plays. I don't even watch most line movement for the most part unless I've handicapped a game a certain way and I am looking for a better line. A good example was the Panthers yesterday. I liked the game at +165 but I wanted a little better line. I waited until it went to +170 before face off and played it there.

That being said, experience has taught me that watching line movement at certain books in certain situations can be a valuable handicapping tool. If it were a few thousand squares that were shading this line, I wouldn't sweat it. But with this type of line at this type of book compounded by the fact that I was considering playing chalk (normally I stick to dogs), it was enough to make me put my wallet away for the day.

 

[Mr Hockey]

There is nothing wrong with watching certain books. Some make a living off of doing so. Ask a good # of people which books they can't seem to beat or it takes awhile to finally get the better of them & the one consistent book you would see listed is Pinnacle.

 

[Wineguy]

Doesn't look like your analysis or over analysis for that matter is doing you much good anyway, according to your records. I am not a basher nor a nemisis to others on here, just suggesting .Maybe you need to try something new and take the advice of Mr. Hockey.

 

[kickserv]

well Nick......good thing ya laid off Boston lost