Pitt line very suspicious

[johnnyonthespot]

I know a couple others have already alluded to this, but can anyone give me any kind of a logical reason why this Pitt line is so low? I thought that it was a steal at -4, but now that I've seen that it's been bet down to -2 I can't help but get suspicious. I was one among the many that got burned on the Memphis-UAB game a few weeks back where that line seemed too good to be true. Seton Hall is mediocre in every way, playing only slightly above .500 at home (at 8-7) and they've lost 4 in a row.

I know that Pitt only won by 5 at home against Hall three weeks ago, but that was a game where Pitt controlled the game by double digits throughout and a late miracle surge by the Pirates kept it close. I also realize that it's senior night for SH.

Just compare this game to another on the boards tonight, Marquette vs. E. Carolina. Both have top 10 teams playing sub-.500 clubs (though Seton Hall played a tougher schedule, EC is much better at home at 11-5), both on senior night. Yet the line for the Marquette game is 11, and the Pitt one is at 2. Something seems very out of whack. If someone can convince me that this line is not suspicious, this has big-time written all over it. I'd hate to pass on this because of paranoia only to see Pitt roll . . .

 

[Hoops]

Pitt opened -4 at the Stardust. All the major books offshore opened at Pitt -2/-2.5, also saw a -1.5...so for the most part, action is on Pitt for the most part, not on Seton Hall.

Pitt was a 9.5 pt fave when they played at Pitt. Take into account homecourt is worth roughly 4pts, and you get the line for tonight's game. Nothing fishy about it. Seton Hall hasn't had a good season, but they are still a dangerous team...any team that played Duke to a 1pt game on a neutral court has talent.

Look at their line history and it certainly isn't out of whack from what Seton Hall's lines have been.

 

[McGain]

Hoops

Hoops

Line back up to 2.5 now. At scores and odds opened at 4 then to 2 now 2.5. Getting beyond all the "shady line" talk.

I guess the question is really how good is Pitt and is Seton Hall really as bad as their record indicates. I would say that Pitt may be for real but the Hall is better than their record. I mean I would not refer to them as a dangerous team at this point in the season, I mean the game vs Duke was a lifetime ago. But I still feel they can beat Pitt at home


Hoops, who do u like in this one?

 

[pokeastickinmyeye]

For what is is worth

For what is is worth

I know it is not the first rule of handicapping, but it looks like
SH has covered 8 of the last 9 vs Pitt. Sometimes the team with
less talent/quality feeds off of that kind of history. I looked and will pass for what it is worth.

 

[THUNDER]

rpi wise the line should be -2 to -5. rpi does not win games. this time of year motivation and intangables provide alot of line value.this is why in conference championships there ussually alot of value in the dogs. they are fighting for there ncaa lives.

 

[doc]

All one has to do is look at this past Sunday's games...

All one has to do is look at this past Sunday's games...

Kansas and Maryland. Duke had already had it's wake up call. When you get to #1 you sometimes pat yourself on the back. Just think how many times at a casino or betting, only to win big, then give it all back the next day. I always handicapp first and fore most by trying to find a reason(s) not to bet the home team. if i can't find any an the line is reasonalbe i'll play the home team. I've PREACHED all basketball season about road favs. Saterday their were 6-8 home dogs, and if i remember right, all but ONE didn't cover the spread. Both Nebraska and Wake played the game of their life, and don't think it can't happen in Pitt/SH game tonight. It would make SH year if they beat pitt tonight, knowing Pitt is going to the big dance and SH will be lucky to get an NIT bid, that being said i played pitt in a parlay and bought 7 points to get pitt to +4.5, call me crazy but this game has a better than 50% SH winning SU. Vegus KNOWS the value of playing at homeand it cannot be underestimated. GL

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Appreciate all the feedback, I think that my main concern is that this line doesn't seem to be consistent with other lines I've seen this year. I can't think of a single time this year where a team ranked in the top ten was less than a 6-6.5 point road favorite over a sub-.500 team. If anyone knows of one, please let me know.

The Sunday Kansas game is a great example. I believe that Kansas was a 9 point favorite. Sure, Nebraska played them great and covered (almost won), but the point is that the line was right where you would expect it to be. Does Seton Hall have a chance to beat Pitt? Absolutely. Home teams are tough, especially on senior night and everybody wants to knock the champ off the top of the heap. But having a line start out a bit low and then quickly move 2 points lower has to raise a red flag. A 4 point line that didn't move or went to 4.5-5 wouldn't have made me think twice.

The Miami-Providence line is also at 2 today. So, apparently Vegas is saying Miami's road ability vs. Providence's home ability is equal to Pitt's road vs. SH's home. This seems to fly in the face of the fact that Miami is 4-4 on the road and Providence is 13-5 at home, while Pitt is 8-3 on the road and SH is 8-7 at home; and they're all in the same conference. I know that's a very theoretical, mathematical approach to take, but I think there's some value in questioning whether a line "seems" right, before you do any capping. The Miami-Pro line does, the Pitt-SH line doesn't.

Nevertheless, you guys have convinced me that this Pitt line is more on the side of a "good" line than a "too good to be true" one, so I'll take Pitt and slap myself in the morning.:brows:

 

[hello there]

Wagerline consensus on pitt/Shall game

2/26/02 currently stands right now at........

Pittsburgh (201 cappers) 77.31%
Seton Hall (59 cappers) 22.69%

Dayamn, I got Pitt also, lots of people are going to win today......should win that is.

 

[THUNDER]

kansas was a 14 pt fav. the big ten, sec,acc,big east where there is little difference talent wise top to bottom and homecourt is huge there are alot of lines that are low. there is no such thing aS A TRAP ONLY IF YOU LOSE.jmho

 

[Weasel]

pitt has to win one of it's last 2 to clinch west, of big east. last game is against a rival WVU, mountaineers would love nothing more than to spoil pitts chances. that is all the incentive pitt needs tonight to beat SH. pitt also has one of the best defenses in cbb, defense doesn't come and go like offense. pitt should cover easily.

 

[hello there]

Trap line?? Naahhh, the game was in the bag all along. No worries.....Pitt won the game eaassilyyy.......in overtime