42-20 overall (68%)
18-12 NBA (60%)
24-8 CBK (75%)
Three today, one tommorow:
Stanford +3.5
Richmond -3
North Texas -5
Write-ups:
Stanford +3.5
My predicted line: Stanford +1
Washington is 18-6 on the season but head on the road again, where they are 0-6, after losing by twelve at California the other night. Quincy Pondexter who averages 20.5 points per game leads Washington. Washington is not a good three point shooting team, and this has a lot to do with why they struggle on the road. Pondexter managed to score 18 against California despite only shooting 6 for 15. They have the best home advantage in the country, which has a lot to do with their record YTD. On the road, like I mentioned they are a very different team. When they fall behind, they get discouraged and do not have the three point shooting ability to get back into the game, as shown against California last game. In their six road games this season, they are shooting 27.8% from 3pt range and are giving up way too many open three?s, allowing opponents to score 42% of their three point shots. That 42% they are giving up from long range also happens to be their overall FG percentage, while allowing 50.2% of opponent?s shots to drop. They have been outscored by an average of 14.4 points per game and are being out rebounded by six rebounds per game, on the road. Their last game vs. California killed their confidence and their 240th ranked defense (this includes their 18 home wins, haha) will struggle on the road, as they continue to be overvalued and overhyped. After four straight home wins, I expect two straight road losses out of this team. This will be their second road game in three nights. Washington is 0-2 this season after losing a game and having less then two games of rest before their next, like tonight.
Stanford will be looking for revenge against a Washinton team whom they lost by 33 points too in Washington a month ago. This is their biggest margin of loss on the season. Stanford played four straight road games before returning home two nights ago, beating Washington State by two. It looked like they were looking ahead to this game the other night and I expect them to come out firing tonight. To match Pondexters play, from Washington, Stanford has senior guard/forward Landry Fields who is averaging over 23 points and nine rebounds per game. Landry has been outstanding this season, and one of the top players in the NCAA, and complimented very nicely from Jeremy Green who averages over 17 points per game and is the teams best 3 pt shooter. Stanford has the 7th best home advantage of the country of 5.5 points and at home this season have outscored opponents by 11.4 ppg, shooting 47.7% FG?s and 38% from 3pt range. Washington will allow many open three?s for Stanford tonight and if they have the hot hand they could run away with this game ? similar to California who was looking for revenge also against this awful road team. Stanford sometimes starts slow but dominates the second half. I don?t see them starting slow tonight though, with a game only two nights ago at home and with revenge on their mind I expect Stanford to control the pace of this game for its majority.
When Chris Fields is playing well, lookout .. and with only fifteen points in his last game and revenge on his mind I expect a strong offensive performance by him on both offense and defense. The public will pound Washington today, as they ?won?t lose two straight games?, but I fully expect Stanford to get the job done at home tonight.
Richmond -3
My predicted line: Richmond -7.5
Richmond has five straight wins, putting them in first place of the Atlantic 10 conference, with a record of 19-6 and 8-2 in division play. They are 5-5 on the rod. ?The Atlantic 10 has six teams battling for what will likely be either be four or five spots in next month?s Field of 65? making every game equally as important for Richmond from here on out.
Richmond knocked off #19 ranked Temple by 17 points (now ranked 21st) two games ago at home, putting their team at 2-0 on the season vs. ranked teams. Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez who average a combined 31 points per game, 76% FT shooting to go along with four steals and five assists per game, lead the Spiders. Having to fight off Rhode Island for a two-point win in their last game, I expect a better performance from this talented duo. Especially on defense where the team ranks 9th ninth in the NCAA. Richmond is a very strong team, currently ranked 40th overall in the country and are 6-1 against teams in the top 50; watch out for Richmond in NCAA tourney for an upset or two. Even on the road, Richmond is outshooting opponents and are 38% from 3-point range, with their stout defense only allowing 28% of 3pt shots to be made. With the top of the Atlantic 10 being such a tight battle for first, Richmond knows they cannot lose a game they should win @ lowly St Bonaventure. Even on the road Richmond is outshooting opponents and are 38% from 3 point range, with their stout defense only allowing 28% of 3pt shots to be made.
St. Bonaventure has an overall rank of 160th in the NCAA; 148th in offense, 201st in defense. Their best player is one dimensional forward Andrew Nicholson who averages 16 points per game on only 11 shots per game, shooting a very nice FG% of 60, but never once attempting a shot from outside 3pt range (hence one dimensional). In fact Bonaventure only has one 3pt scoring threat in Chris Matthews who is averaging three 3pointers per game with a 37% scoring success. A solid defensive team like Richmond will take advantage of Bonaventure?s lack of outside scoring depth, and I see this Bonaventure team getting very frustrated early on, leading to bad/forced shots throughout. Richmond won their last game against the worst team in the Atlantic 10 with 2 wins and 20 losses, Fordham, by eleven points. Prior to this, they had lost four straight games and nine of their past thirteen. They are 10-12 this season, but mostly due to a strong 4-1 start. They have shown their true colours since entering divisional play where they are only 3-6 this season.
They only have a home advantage of only 3.5 points (which is only around 700th best in the country), and are 0-3 against top 50 teams this season. St. Bonaventure plays ranked Temple in their next game.
I do not see St. Bonaventure getting much done today against a Richmond defense who are one of the best in the country. Richmond goes on the road and wins likely by double digits, if not very close.
North Texas -5
My predicted line: North Texas -7
Denver, 14-10, heads to 16-8 North Texas today.
In this game, we have another awful road team in Denver, who are 1-9 on the road this season. Denver, similar to Washington, in the sense that they play very good at home, with a lot of the reason being the problems the air pressure of the mile-high arena has on opposing teams. Denver is used to it through living, practicing and playing there; and are a different team on the road. Despite their 13-1 home record, Denver is ranked an awful 470th in offense... This ranks amongst most division II teams. Their only road game this season where they lost by four points or less, was their win; being their first road game of the season back in November. One of these losses included a 12-point road loss, against a then 5-win 15-loss team, in AR Little Rock. Their leading scorer, rebounder, assist getter and team leader, guard Nate Rohnert, is averaging 15 points per game but only 12 pts per game in his last five. When this player isn?t on his game, Denver has zero shot of staying close with any other team. Their next two leading scorers average a combined 20 points per game with more then half of those points coming from 3pt range. Like I said Denver is a completely different team on the road, are 0-8 ATS on the road, losing each game on average by 9 points and being out-rebounded by 7.4 rebounds per game. Denver tends to keep games close on the road in the first half, but then fade away in the second half (losing the second half on average by six points) and I expect that to once again be the case tonight in what is their second road game in three nights.
North Texas is 16-8 on the season and 9-2 at home, as well as 9-5 in Sun Belt divisional play. They have three players averaging approximately 14 points per game, and four double-digit scorers. Denver is a team controlled by one man, while North Texas is a team who spreads around the love. They are a very good 3pt, FT and assist team. Their leading rebounder is big man George Odufuwa, who is averaging 10.5 rebounds and a block per game; to go along with 11 points for the team leading 58% FG shooting. Although their team name ?Mean Green? reminds me of my childhood soccer team, they do not play as we did; this team can score. They have scored 80 points or more in three of their last six games, a span where they are 5-1 SU (with four of these games being on the road). In this span they are outscoring opponents by 8 points with a 7% better FG shooting, 6% better 3pt shooting, and outrebounding teams by 10 (38-28) per game. At home this season, as I said, they are 9-2 and out performing opponents in every category once again.
I look for a very dominant performance out of this North Texas team. Good ball movement, good three opportunities and dishing it off to the big man down low should secure North Texas against a struggling Denver team, who struggles even more on the road. If Chase Halem doesn?t score 20+ for Denver they are looking at an easy double digit loss. If he is able too, then this game could finish closer to the line but still North Texas wins by 6+. North Texas by 11 to 13.
GL to all today and let's have a very nice day.
PV