Platinum MLB
- Thread starter PlatnumStandard
- Start date
6-1 for 13+ units yesterday. Hopefully this is the new beginning.
Instead of posting the 300 units as the goal, which might be misleading, I am back to the 200 showing I am down 92 units since the start as I try to climb my way back.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 6-1, +13.10 units
Units remaining: 292.50
6/28/09
$300 Milwaukee -150
$300 Houston +125
$300 Philly/Toronto OVER 10
$100 Colorado/Oakland UNDER 7.5
$1000 NY Yankees -130
The New Yorks will face for the last time in 2009 most likely. Wang will go for the Yanks while Hernandez counters to try to get the Mets a win in the series. Mets are still in a bad way without their stars. When they return, maybe they can make a run, but until then...For now the Mets will struggle until that can become a reality. The Yanks have owned the Mets at the plate. Wang has seemingly gotten better with each start despite his 11+ ERA on the year. His last 2, were nearly identical with 3 ERs, 4 Ks, 6 hits allowed over 5 inngs. NYY lost both of those gms. Hernandez has not had luck vs. Yanks. His recent 3 show him allowing 6 runs on average in 5 innings. Yanks will stay hot, get a good enough outing from Wang, and sweep the Mets in the final IL game of 09.
Instead of posting the 300 units as the goal, which might be misleading, I am back to the 200 showing I am down 92 units since the start as I try to climb my way back.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 6-1, +13.10 units
Units remaining: 292.50
6/28/09
$300 Milwaukee -150
$300 Houston +125
$300 Philly/Toronto OVER 10
$100 Colorado/Oakland UNDER 7.5
$1000 NY Yankees -130
The New Yorks will face for the last time in 2009 most likely. Wang will go for the Yanks while Hernandez counters to try to get the Mets a win in the series. Mets are still in a bad way without their stars. When they return, maybe they can make a run, but until then...For now the Mets will struggle until that can become a reality. The Yanks have owned the Mets at the plate. Wang has seemingly gotten better with each start despite his 11+ ERA on the year. His last 2, were nearly identical with 3 ERs, 4 Ks, 6 hits allowed over 5 inngs. NYY lost both of those gms. Hernandez has not had luck vs. Yanks. His recent 3 show him allowing 6 runs on average in 5 innings. Yanks will stay hot, get a good enough outing from Wang, and sweep the Mets in the final IL game of 09.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-3, +0.2 units
Units remaining: 292.30
6/29/09
(70%+ angles should hit 6 of next 8 sides)
$500 Washington +170
Nats have a 10-0 angle backing them tonight with this one, as this is my strongest of the evening in terms of probable win pct. The Nats are coming off the win while Florida was swept on the road. The public will over-value the home team in this situation in which they are. The Nats are getting good dog money as Olsen returns to face his old club. The motivational factor is in efeect, not to mention a revenge angle that shows the Nats blew 3 possible wins against this Marlins team earlier this season. Nats pen has been performing much better at this point in time and this time I see them holding onto a win. Should be a tight contest either way. Nats by a run.
$500 NY Mets +120
Mets gave us a 10 unit winner last night but after another embarrassing loss to the Yanks, they will be hungry for blood tonight against Braden Looper. The one bright spot for the Mets right now is their rotation as Redding, Hernandez and now Nieve, who goes tonight, have been key. No run support is killing this team. I feel if they can get at least 3-4 off Loop tonight, they should handle the Brewers in the first game of this series. After being held to a handful of hits over the last couple games look for the Metropolitans to fire up on all cylinders tonight and get this much needed road win.
$500 Toronto -150
Halladay will be back tonight for Toronto as he has missed time recently. The Jays host the Rays in game 1 of this set. Toronto needs Roy to get back into the groove he has been in. Halladay, hurt or not, is a must play at home laying only minimal chalk here tonight as he is 10-1 on the year. He is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home, while his opposition has struggled of late. Niemann has given up 9 ERs in his last 3, with 2 of those on the road. Now that isnt terrible but it is when you discuss the fact he has only gone less thab 13 innings over those 3 starts. If he does not give TB a good strong long outing tonight, they will not have a chance. Toronto should be able to outscore the Rays, and if they get Niemann out early they will have a field day on the shaky Rays pen. Toronto by a couple.
$500 Detroit -110
Porcello is a must play off the win yesterday where he is superb on the road. Anderson has struggled at home all year and is 1-4 with a 5+ ERA there. Oakland is usually a pitcher friendly park but Anderson would not agree. Opponents have scored 3 or less in 8 of Porcellos last 10 starts. Oakland has scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 5 at home so there are no guarantees of a big night. Detroit should win this by 3 or more based on the numbers of both teams pitching and hitting. Oakland has also lost by 2.5 runs average in their last 5 gms during their losing streak.
$500 LA Dodgers -110
Someone needs to stop the Rockies before they cruise to a wild card berth and claim another NL championship. The competition has not been strong for Colorado as they have faced some weak clubs and good ballclubs that were slumping. They lost the series to a hot Angles team, and the LAD rank up there. LA has lost 4 of 5 but have yet to lose 3 straight games all year let alone 3 straight at home. They swept Colorado last time here, outscoring them 27-10 in a 3 game series. Wolf is on a bounce-back, and considering this Dodger team pounded Jimenez last time puts a damper on the Rockies winning yet again. Rocks are 1-4 in Jimenezs last 5 road starts. Colorado swept on the road and stay on the road, a place where LA has won 26 of 38. LA by a few.
$500 Texas -120
$200 LAA/Tex Under 10.5
This game is off a similar scenario as the Marlins fade was the other night. Marlins had an easy opponent and went on the road to face a tougher team. Same here as the Angels took care of business at Arizona and now face a division rival in Texas. The Rangers are coming off a slump with hitting besides for two games ago where they scored 12. This one should go under the total of a steep 10.5, where both of Texas totals went under in their last couple. Sully goes for the Angels while Padilla starts for Texas. Both starters have done exceptional this year, mind you Sully has only two starts, but impressive. Sully has not faced a line-up quite like this and if Texas can put up 4-5 they should easily take this one. I see a 5-3 final here.
Yesterday: 2-3, +0.2 units
Units remaining: 292.30
6/29/09
(70%+ angles should hit 6 of next 8 sides)
$500 Washington +170
Nats have a 10-0 angle backing them tonight with this one, as this is my strongest of the evening in terms of probable win pct. The Nats are coming off the win while Florida was swept on the road. The public will over-value the home team in this situation in which they are. The Nats are getting good dog money as Olsen returns to face his old club. The motivational factor is in efeect, not to mention a revenge angle that shows the Nats blew 3 possible wins against this Marlins team earlier this season. Nats pen has been performing much better at this point in time and this time I see them holding onto a win. Should be a tight contest either way. Nats by a run.
$500 NY Mets +120
Mets gave us a 10 unit winner last night but after another embarrassing loss to the Yanks, they will be hungry for blood tonight against Braden Looper. The one bright spot for the Mets right now is their rotation as Redding, Hernandez and now Nieve, who goes tonight, have been key. No run support is killing this team. I feel if they can get at least 3-4 off Loop tonight, they should handle the Brewers in the first game of this series. After being held to a handful of hits over the last couple games look for the Metropolitans to fire up on all cylinders tonight and get this much needed road win.
$500 Toronto -150
Halladay will be back tonight for Toronto as he has missed time recently. The Jays host the Rays in game 1 of this set. Toronto needs Roy to get back into the groove he has been in. Halladay, hurt or not, is a must play at home laying only minimal chalk here tonight as he is 10-1 on the year. He is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home, while his opposition has struggled of late. Niemann has given up 9 ERs in his last 3, with 2 of those on the road. Now that isnt terrible but it is when you discuss the fact he has only gone less thab 13 innings over those 3 starts. If he does not give TB a good strong long outing tonight, they will not have a chance. Toronto should be able to outscore the Rays, and if they get Niemann out early they will have a field day on the shaky Rays pen. Toronto by a couple.
$500 Detroit -110
Porcello is a must play off the win yesterday where he is superb on the road. Anderson has struggled at home all year and is 1-4 with a 5+ ERA there. Oakland is usually a pitcher friendly park but Anderson would not agree. Opponents have scored 3 or less in 8 of Porcellos last 10 starts. Oakland has scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 5 at home so there are no guarantees of a big night. Detroit should win this by 3 or more based on the numbers of both teams pitching and hitting. Oakland has also lost by 2.5 runs average in their last 5 gms during their losing streak.
$500 LA Dodgers -110
Someone needs to stop the Rockies before they cruise to a wild card berth and claim another NL championship. The competition has not been strong for Colorado as they have faced some weak clubs and good ballclubs that were slumping. They lost the series to a hot Angles team, and the LAD rank up there. LA has lost 4 of 5 but have yet to lose 3 straight games all year let alone 3 straight at home. They swept Colorado last time here, outscoring them 27-10 in a 3 game series. Wolf is on a bounce-back, and considering this Dodger team pounded Jimenez last time puts a damper on the Rockies winning yet again. Rocks are 1-4 in Jimenezs last 5 road starts. Colorado swept on the road and stay on the road, a place where LA has won 26 of 38. LA by a few.
$500 Texas -120
$200 LAA/Tex Under 10.5
This game is off a similar scenario as the Marlins fade was the other night. Marlins had an easy opponent and went on the road to face a tougher team. Same here as the Angels took care of business at Arizona and now face a division rival in Texas. The Rangers are coming off a slump with hitting besides for two games ago where they scored 12. This one should go under the total of a steep 10.5, where both of Texas totals went under in their last couple. Sully goes for the Angels while Padilla starts for Texas. Both starters have done exceptional this year, mind you Sully has only two starts, but impressive. Sully has not faced a line-up quite like this and if Texas can put up 4-5 they should easily take this one. I see a 5-3 final here.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-5, -22 units
Units remaining: 314.30
6/30/09
$500 Arizona -130
As bad as the Backs have looked I think they outmatch Arroyo and Cincy tonight. Arroyo has been awful over his last several especially at home.
$500 Seattle +220
Big chance here as Morrow comes off the decent outing. He previously held the Yanks to 1 ER over 7 innings. I won't be shocked if the result is the same tonight. Yanks have played weak slumping teams lately, way overvalued.
$300 Cubs/Pirates OVER 8
Lilly is coming off a rough start and I look for him to struggle tonight. No evidence states this will be a low scoring game. Both sides would need to not hit and pitchers would need great outings. Don't see it. Look for at least 9 in this one, 5-4.
$200 LAA/Texas OVER 10.5
Look at Saunders and Feldman in this park against these rosters and you would agree. Coming off a low scoring game yesterday, Sauders has struggled against Tex for the most part and this one should see 13-15.
$200 Boston -120
Worth the shot with Sox as small road faves coming off win last night. Smoltz got the rust out after a rough outing last time. He will bounce back strong tonight being undervalued. Hill has been a nice fill for the O's but has struggled in home starts this year.
$200 Philly +115
$100 Phi/Atlanta OVER 9
These teams will hit the ball in this game. Philly seems to be scoring again and Lowe has struggled. Blanton has been great lately but has not had success with Atlanta. Philly will get it done on Atlanta's pen late in this one. Look for at least 12 scored tonight.
Yesterday: 2-5, -22 units
Units remaining: 314.30
6/30/09
$500 Arizona -130
As bad as the Backs have looked I think they outmatch Arroyo and Cincy tonight. Arroyo has been awful over his last several especially at home.
$500 Seattle +220
Big chance here as Morrow comes off the decent outing. He previously held the Yanks to 1 ER over 7 innings. I won't be shocked if the result is the same tonight. Yanks have played weak slumping teams lately, way overvalued.
$300 Cubs/Pirates OVER 8
Lilly is coming off a rough start and I look for him to struggle tonight. No evidence states this will be a low scoring game. Both sides would need to not hit and pitchers would need great outings. Don't see it. Look for at least 9 in this one, 5-4.
$200 LAA/Texas OVER 10.5
Look at Saunders and Feldman in this park against these rosters and you would agree. Coming off a low scoring game yesterday, Sauders has struggled against Tex for the most part and this one should see 13-15.
$200 Boston -120
Worth the shot with Sox as small road faves coming off win last night. Smoltz got the rust out after a rough outing last time. He will bounce back strong tonight being undervalued. Hill has been a nice fill for the O's but has struggled in home starts this year.
$200 Philly +115
$100 Phi/Atlanta OVER 9
These teams will hit the ball in this game. Philly seems to be scoring again and Lowe has struggled. Blanton has been great lately but has not had success with Atlanta. Philly will get it done on Atlanta's pen late in this one. Look for at least 12 scored tonight.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-4-1, -5.7 units
Units remaining: 320
I am happy that June is over. Gives me a fresh start for a new month and hopefully these 1 run losses stop over the next 60+ days. The losses have been nothing short of brutal, capping off with Philly pitching in a non force situation with runners in scoring position and one out(lousy call). How about Seattle coming back twice but falling short in NY. Morrow got out of trouble several times. They had opportunity. Lastly, was that really Boston who blew a 10-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th and 8th innings last night. Come on. It doesn't get much worse when the capping is dead to rights and you still somehow seem to lose. Best call of the night was the Texas over which came in right in the middle of the 13-15 predicted runs in a 9-5 final. Let's get July rolling.
$1000 Toronto +115
Jays look to avoid being swept today and with Ricky Romero on the mound it is very possible that the Jays accomplish this task at hand. Romero has allowed just 10 ERs in 31 innings at home this year. He has allowed 3 or less ERs in 8 of his last 10. Dominant all year long so far. James Shields counters for the Rays who look to win their 8th straight. Shields usually pitches well vs. Toronto but the Jays finished with 13 runs in his last 2 outings while his previous 6 to those starts saw the jays total 18 runs. If the Jays can hit today and give Romero run support this one is in the bag. Jays are winless in their last 10 games when they average less than .250 hitting for the game. They need hits today and will get them. Jays 4-3.
$100 NYM/Mil OVER 7.5
The Mets have just been awful of late. Their lack of hitting is now bleeding into their pitching as Nieve and Santana struggled recently vs. Brew. Today Pelfrey has his turn. He allowed 4 ERs in 5 innings last time out vs. Milwaukee. Gallardo goes for Milwaukee and shut down the Mets this season over 6 strong innings of 5 hit ball. Brew won that one 1-0. This time around the Mets should muster up a couple at least but it is the Brewers that should send this one over the total. These teams equalled 25 runs already in this series. I dont see the run scoring stopping today. I just hope this is not one of those 2-1 games going into the 7th. Should see at least 9 here.
$300 Arz/Cin UNDER 8.5
Garland and Cueto look to continue the trend of unders these teams have played for years. I feel that this one should see at most 7 runs tonight keeping this one under the 8.5 listed. Garland is doing a much better job on the road compared to at home. He only has a 2.60 ERA away from home, and has looked sharp overall in 2 of his last 3. The problem is run support as the D-Backs have been outscored 55-31 in the 8 previous losses with Garland on the hill. As a team the backs are 2-8 in Garland's last 10 starts. Look for Cincy to win and get revenge after last night but still keeping this one under. Cueto has allowed just 5 ERs in his 3 starts vs. Arz and the D-Backs have scored just 6 total in those games.
$200 Chisox/Cle UNDER 9.5
One of the better totals on the board for today. Contreras has been superb lately as has Sowers. Contreras has allowed 7 ERs over his last 4 games. Sowers is coming off a stunning start at home vs. Cincy. Contreras has pretty much owned Cleveland over his last 4 meetings. How about 4 ERs in those games including both in Cleveland were shutouts. Cleveland has averaged 2 runs per game in those previous meetings. Sowers did allow 5 ERs at home this year to this Sox club but allowed just 2 ERs in his last meeting with them. Unless the pens fail in this one these starters will likely keep this one under.
Yesterday: 2-4-1, -5.7 units
Units remaining: 320
I am happy that June is over. Gives me a fresh start for a new month and hopefully these 1 run losses stop over the next 60+ days. The losses have been nothing short of brutal, capping off with Philly pitching in a non force situation with runners in scoring position and one out(lousy call). How about Seattle coming back twice but falling short in NY. Morrow got out of trouble several times. They had opportunity. Lastly, was that really Boston who blew a 10-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th and 8th innings last night. Come on. It doesn't get much worse when the capping is dead to rights and you still somehow seem to lose. Best call of the night was the Texas over which came in right in the middle of the 13-15 predicted runs in a 9-5 final. Let's get July rolling.
$1000 Toronto +115
Jays look to avoid being swept today and with Ricky Romero on the mound it is very possible that the Jays accomplish this task at hand. Romero has allowed just 10 ERs in 31 innings at home this year. He has allowed 3 or less ERs in 8 of his last 10. Dominant all year long so far. James Shields counters for the Rays who look to win their 8th straight. Shields usually pitches well vs. Toronto but the Jays finished with 13 runs in his last 2 outings while his previous 6 to those starts saw the jays total 18 runs. If the Jays can hit today and give Romero run support this one is in the bag. Jays are winless in their last 10 games when they average less than .250 hitting for the game. They need hits today and will get them. Jays 4-3.
$100 NYM/Mil OVER 7.5
The Mets have just been awful of late. Their lack of hitting is now bleeding into their pitching as Nieve and Santana struggled recently vs. Brew. Today Pelfrey has his turn. He allowed 4 ERs in 5 innings last time out vs. Milwaukee. Gallardo goes for Milwaukee and shut down the Mets this season over 6 strong innings of 5 hit ball. Brew won that one 1-0. This time around the Mets should muster up a couple at least but it is the Brewers that should send this one over the total. These teams equalled 25 runs already in this series. I dont see the run scoring stopping today. I just hope this is not one of those 2-1 games going into the 7th. Should see at least 9 here.
$300 Arz/Cin UNDER 8.5
Garland and Cueto look to continue the trend of unders these teams have played for years. I feel that this one should see at most 7 runs tonight keeping this one under the 8.5 listed. Garland is doing a much better job on the road compared to at home. He only has a 2.60 ERA away from home, and has looked sharp overall in 2 of his last 3. The problem is run support as the D-Backs have been outscored 55-31 in the 8 previous losses with Garland on the hill. As a team the backs are 2-8 in Garland's last 10 starts. Look for Cincy to win and get revenge after last night but still keeping this one under. Cueto has allowed just 5 ERs in his 3 starts vs. Arz and the D-Backs have scored just 6 total in those games.
$200 Chisox/Cle UNDER 9.5
One of the better totals on the board for today. Contreras has been superb lately as has Sowers. Contreras has allowed 7 ERs over his last 4 games. Sowers is coming off a stunning start at home vs. Cincy. Contreras has pretty much owned Cleveland over his last 4 meetings. How about 4 ERs in those games including both in Cleveland were shutouts. Cleveland has averaged 2 runs per game in those previous meetings. Sowers did allow 5 ERs at home this year to this Sox club but allowed just 2 ERs in his last meeting with them. Unless the pens fail in this one these starters will likely keep this one under.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-1, +15.4 units
Currently: -104.6 units
Units remaining: 304.6
Great way to kick off July, going 3-1 last night for 15+ units. Hopefully this month will reverse mirror June. 61 days remaining, a good two full months. Totals have been the hotter of the selections placed. A tally of 11-3-1 in roughly a weeks time for nearly 20 units in profit. Hopefully sides will start doing the same.
7/2/09
$300 Kansas City +135
The Royals are going to give comebacker Bruce Chen another shot tonight. The White Sox look to continue their hot hitting when they travel to KC. Chisox may be overvalued today, coming off the travel after game with a lowly Cleveland club. Royals can hit the ball and should have some success vs. Buehrle. I like the home dog in this spot. All signs point to the Sox as they come off the sweep, playing a team that has struggled, and face a pitcher who gave up 4 on the road last time out. All of those facts have little significants. What is of greater importance is the fact that all signs point to Chicago as an easy win tonight. I doubt that as we have not seen Chen at home. KC lost a home series and will look to win at home here. Play the home dog tonight.
$300 Atlanta -135
$200 Phi/Atl UNDER 8
Look for the Braves to rid themselves completely of their previous slumping losing streak as they have outplayed the Phillies in the first two looking to make it 3 for 3. Vasquez will take the bump for the Braves where he has dominated lately. Especially against Philly in his last 3, which were on the road, just 8 ERs allowed in a hitter friendly park. Opponents have scored a combined 14 runs in his last 6 home starts. He will go pretty deep and limit the pen work which has done a good job of late. Happ will counter for Philly, but this team has lacked run support for their starters. In their last 10, minus the two 10 run outbursts, they average less than 3 runs per game. Happ has just allowed 2 ERs in 2 starts vs. Atlanta in his career. Braves get more on the board, 3-2.
$200 St.Louis -130
Cards get a win after the win tonight as Wellemeyer faces Zito. Surprisingly both starters have good numbers against these opponents. Zito has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 3 vs. STL and Wellemeyer has allowed 6 ERs in 3 starts vs. SF. The key here is that the SF bullpen has always struggled in Zito outings vs. this Cards team. They gave up 7 runs in the last 2 meetings, all in less than 6 innings. Cards averaged 7 runs over the last two meetings with Zito. Wellemeyer has stifled SF two of three outings. Should see a very lopsided contest tonight. Cards by 4 or more. Runline may be more of a lucrative wager.
$200 Seattle +1.5(+115)
The Mariners have fought to try and take a game from the Yanks. They keep coming up short. In gm 1, they tied the game twice. After the second tie, they gave it up in the bottom of the inning. Last night they did the same exact thing. Tonight they send Vargas to the hill to try and get the Ms in the win column vs. NY. Sabathia will be the home starter. CC has impressed me lately, as has Vargas. The difference is Vargas has not shown good road numbers. The Ms are due for a solid outing from a starter as Morrow and Wash did not do enough. Opponents are averaging 5 runs per game with Vargas on road. CC will not give up much but I am banking that Vargas steps up and the Ms keep this close. They lost gm 1 by 3, and by 2 runs last night. Hoping the pattern continues.
Yesterday: 3-1, +15.4 units
Currently: -104.6 units
Units remaining: 304.6
Great way to kick off July, going 3-1 last night for 15+ units. Hopefully this month will reverse mirror June. 61 days remaining, a good two full months. Totals have been the hotter of the selections placed. A tally of 11-3-1 in roughly a weeks time for nearly 20 units in profit. Hopefully sides will start doing the same.
7/2/09
$300 Kansas City +135
The Royals are going to give comebacker Bruce Chen another shot tonight. The White Sox look to continue their hot hitting when they travel to KC. Chisox may be overvalued today, coming off the travel after game with a lowly Cleveland club. Royals can hit the ball and should have some success vs. Buehrle. I like the home dog in this spot. All signs point to the Sox as they come off the sweep, playing a team that has struggled, and face a pitcher who gave up 4 on the road last time out. All of those facts have little significants. What is of greater importance is the fact that all signs point to Chicago as an easy win tonight. I doubt that as we have not seen Chen at home. KC lost a home series and will look to win at home here. Play the home dog tonight.
$300 Atlanta -135
$200 Phi/Atl UNDER 8
Look for the Braves to rid themselves completely of their previous slumping losing streak as they have outplayed the Phillies in the first two looking to make it 3 for 3. Vasquez will take the bump for the Braves where he has dominated lately. Especially against Philly in his last 3, which were on the road, just 8 ERs allowed in a hitter friendly park. Opponents have scored a combined 14 runs in his last 6 home starts. He will go pretty deep and limit the pen work which has done a good job of late. Happ will counter for Philly, but this team has lacked run support for their starters. In their last 10, minus the two 10 run outbursts, they average less than 3 runs per game. Happ has just allowed 2 ERs in 2 starts vs. Atlanta in his career. Braves get more on the board, 3-2.
$200 St.Louis -130
Cards get a win after the win tonight as Wellemeyer faces Zito. Surprisingly both starters have good numbers against these opponents. Zito has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 3 vs. STL and Wellemeyer has allowed 6 ERs in 3 starts vs. SF. The key here is that the SF bullpen has always struggled in Zito outings vs. this Cards team. They gave up 7 runs in the last 2 meetings, all in less than 6 innings. Cards averaged 7 runs over the last two meetings with Zito. Wellemeyer has stifled SF two of three outings. Should see a very lopsided contest tonight. Cards by 4 or more. Runline may be more of a lucrative wager.
$200 Seattle +1.5(+115)
The Mariners have fought to try and take a game from the Yanks. They keep coming up short. In gm 1, they tied the game twice. After the second tie, they gave it up in the bottom of the inning. Last night they did the same exact thing. Tonight they send Vargas to the hill to try and get the Ms in the win column vs. NY. Sabathia will be the home starter. CC has impressed me lately, as has Vargas. The difference is Vargas has not shown good road numbers. The Ms are due for a solid outing from a starter as Morrow and Wash did not do enough. Opponents are averaging 5 runs per game with Vargas on road. CC will not give up much but I am banking that Vargas steps up and the Ms keep this close. They lost gm 1 by 3, and by 2 runs last night. Hoping the pattern continues.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 4-1, +6.30 units
Currently: -98.3 units
Units remaining: 298.3
7/3/09
Making progress in July...A 7-2 mark over the first 2 days for over 21 units of profit. Let's see if the month of July does a complete 360 of how June went. So far no complaints. Totals with the win last night are 12-3-1 over the last week and 16 plays. Again, alot better than sides are doing. Everything but the Royals game was on point last night.
Write-ups to follow later today but I am listing the plays now for line movement especially on totals.
$200 Toronto +170
Yanks come off the loss. Look for the Jays to start winning again somewhat as they come off the win and face Burnett who they got 5 runs off of last time they met. Tallet has not really had a bad showing as Jays starter, and held the Yanks to 2 runs in his lone meeting with them. Again, Yanks at home, alot of value on the dog in this spot.
$200 STL -1.5(+125)
$100 STL/CIN OVER 9.5
$100 SEA/BOS UNDER 8.5
$500 Oakland +110
$200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9
$500 Atlanta -125
$500 Pittsburgh +145
$500 Philly -140
Yesterday: 4-1, +6.30 units
Currently: -98.3 units
Units remaining: 298.3
7/3/09
Making progress in July...A 7-2 mark over the first 2 days for over 21 units of profit. Let's see if the month of July does a complete 360 of how June went. So far no complaints. Totals with the win last night are 12-3-1 over the last week and 16 plays. Again, alot better than sides are doing. Everything but the Royals game was on point last night.
Write-ups to follow later today but I am listing the plays now for line movement especially on totals.
$200 Toronto +170
Yanks come off the loss. Look for the Jays to start winning again somewhat as they come off the win and face Burnett who they got 5 runs off of last time they met. Tallet has not really had a bad showing as Jays starter, and held the Yanks to 2 runs in his lone meeting with them. Again, Yanks at home, alot of value on the dog in this spot.
$200 STL -1.5(+125)
$100 STL/CIN OVER 9.5
$100 SEA/BOS UNDER 8.5
$500 Oakland +110
$200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9
$500 Atlanta -125
$500 Pittsburgh +145
$500 Philly -140
Here are the write-ups for the late MLB games:
$200 St. Louis -1.5(+125)
$100 St. Louis/Cincy OVER 9.5
Joel Pineiro has succeeded in Cincy and in his last 4 against the Reds he has allowed 9 ERs in 24 innings. Bailey has struggled against STL and has not had any success at home. Opponents have ran up the scoreboard on Bailey and the Reds bullpen putting up 40 total runs in the last 6 home starts. Look for the Cards to get busy with the bats today. Bailey has not seen many trips to the mound vs. STL. He has less than 4 innings pitched in both his previous home outings vs. Cards. Look for him to continue with the struggles. Cards should be able to get 7-9 in this one and the Reds should not see more than 4 today. Cards should take this by several. Prediction 9-4.
$100 Seattle/Boston UNDER 8.5
King Felix is back. Hernandez has shut down the opposition of late and has cruised in Fenway in the past. He is 2-0 in his last 3 outings with a 0.74 ERA. He also is not too shabby on the road with a 1.72 ERA and a 5-1 record away from home. Felix has allowed just 7 hits in his 2 starts in Boston and has not allowed a run there. He has struggled at home vs. Sox but obviously different ballparks give different results. Red Sox will struggle for runs today and so will Seattle. The Ms have only scored 26 runs in the 6 road starts by Hernandez. Wakefield has also posted just 3 ERs allowed in his last 15 innings vs. Seattle. Look for 5 at most.
$500 Oakland +110
$200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9
Trevor Cahill looks to bounce back after a 7 ER allowance in his last start. The ball will travel today. Opponents average 5+ runs per game in Cahills last 10 outings. The As pen has also struggled in Cahill road outings. Cahill has a 4+ ERA on the road for the season. Huff has had a great run until his last outing where he allowed 6. Yes, and that was at home. The ball will fly today, as Cleveland has allowed 17 runs in Huffs last 2 home outings. This game should see a double digit figure, and Oakland should be able to score more than Cleveland in this one. Look for a 7-5 final.
$500 Atlanta -125
Kenshin Kawakami will lead the Braves to another win tonight as they face the Nats in the opening game of their series. Kawakami has had a great run allowing 3 or less ERs in 12 of his 14 starts. Since an 8 ER shelling in Cincy, he has settled in and has allowed 2 ERs in 6 of his last 10. Three of four previous road outings were 2 ER performances. The Braves have started making some real contact with the baseball and are finding ways to win ballgames. Look for them to at least get 5 somehow tonight, giving them the win in this one. I can see a 5-4 final here.
$500 Philly -140
Mets finally got some runs on the board yesterday but I see that fade into the night with having to face Lopez tonight. Rodrigo Lopez has not been seen in over a year, almost 2 years. The former Oriole was sent to Colorado, where he pitched very well. How about no more than 3 ERs in his last 5 outings as starter in Coors. Not bad. He should prosper in Philly as long as he stays healthy. I believe he will have a good return back tonight. Unless he exits early, the Phills should take this one easily as Livan Hernandez and his relievers have struggled on the road. In the last 6 road outings, opponents have put up 30 total runs on the Mets. Philly was also embarrassed in Atlanta where they won 20 of 27 previously. Look for them to take revenge on a weak Mets team at home.
$500 Pittsburgh +145
I will take my chances with Morton who is dogged today at Florida and Volstad. Morton allowed just 2 ERs in his last road outing in Colorado. Volstad has been too overvalued at home seeing as his ERA is 4.72 and over his last 3 games a whopping 7.47 ERA. Morton is familiar with Florida as he faced them 3 times while with the Braves. The Fish are just 3-7 in the last 10 games Volstad has started. I think the Pirates will get it done offensively and with Morton allowing just 5 ERs in 11 innings, I like the value here.
$200 St. Louis -1.5(+125)
$100 St. Louis/Cincy OVER 9.5
Joel Pineiro has succeeded in Cincy and in his last 4 against the Reds he has allowed 9 ERs in 24 innings. Bailey has struggled against STL and has not had any success at home. Opponents have ran up the scoreboard on Bailey and the Reds bullpen putting up 40 total runs in the last 6 home starts. Look for the Cards to get busy with the bats today. Bailey has not seen many trips to the mound vs. STL. He has less than 4 innings pitched in both his previous home outings vs. Cards. Look for him to continue with the struggles. Cards should be able to get 7-9 in this one and the Reds should not see more than 4 today. Cards should take this by several. Prediction 9-4.
$100 Seattle/Boston UNDER 8.5
King Felix is back. Hernandez has shut down the opposition of late and has cruised in Fenway in the past. He is 2-0 in his last 3 outings with a 0.74 ERA. He also is not too shabby on the road with a 1.72 ERA and a 5-1 record away from home. Felix has allowed just 7 hits in his 2 starts in Boston and has not allowed a run there. He has struggled at home vs. Sox but obviously different ballparks give different results. Red Sox will struggle for runs today and so will Seattle. The Ms have only scored 26 runs in the 6 road starts by Hernandez. Wakefield has also posted just 3 ERs allowed in his last 15 innings vs. Seattle. Look for 5 at most.
$500 Oakland +110
$200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9
Trevor Cahill looks to bounce back after a 7 ER allowance in his last start. The ball will travel today. Opponents average 5+ runs per game in Cahills last 10 outings. The As pen has also struggled in Cahill road outings. Cahill has a 4+ ERA on the road for the season. Huff has had a great run until his last outing where he allowed 6. Yes, and that was at home. The ball will fly today, as Cleveland has allowed 17 runs in Huffs last 2 home outings. This game should see a double digit figure, and Oakland should be able to score more than Cleveland in this one. Look for a 7-5 final.
$500 Atlanta -125
Kenshin Kawakami will lead the Braves to another win tonight as they face the Nats in the opening game of their series. Kawakami has had a great run allowing 3 or less ERs in 12 of his 14 starts. Since an 8 ER shelling in Cincy, he has settled in and has allowed 2 ERs in 6 of his last 10. Three of four previous road outings were 2 ER performances. The Braves have started making some real contact with the baseball and are finding ways to win ballgames. Look for them to at least get 5 somehow tonight, giving them the win in this one. I can see a 5-4 final here.
$500 Philly -140
Mets finally got some runs on the board yesterday but I see that fade into the night with having to face Lopez tonight. Rodrigo Lopez has not been seen in over a year, almost 2 years. The former Oriole was sent to Colorado, where he pitched very well. How about no more than 3 ERs in his last 5 outings as starter in Coors. Not bad. He should prosper in Philly as long as he stays healthy. I believe he will have a good return back tonight. Unless he exits early, the Phills should take this one easily as Livan Hernandez and his relievers have struggled on the road. In the last 6 road outings, opponents have put up 30 total runs on the Mets. Philly was also embarrassed in Atlanta where they won 20 of 27 previously. Look for them to take revenge on a weak Mets team at home.
$500 Pittsburgh +145
I will take my chances with Morton who is dogged today at Florida and Volstad. Morton allowed just 2 ERs in his last road outing in Colorado. Volstad has been too overvalued at home seeing as his ERA is 4.72 and over his last 3 games a whopping 7.47 ERA. Morton is familiar with Florida as he faced them 3 times while with the Braves. The Fish are just 3-7 in the last 10 games Volstad has started. I think the Pirates will get it done offensively and with Morton allowing just 5 ERs in 11 innings, I like the value here.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 6-3, +14.65 units
Currently: -83.65 units
Units remaining: 283.65
JULY 13-5, +36.35 units in 3 days
Totals run of 14-4-1 last 19 plays
7/4/09
Just a few more winning days like the last 3, and I will be on my way. How about that STL game turning around from having 2 losses to 2 wins. Braves fought for the win, and totals go 2-1 to stay hot last night. Small card for Saturday, hoping to go at least 2 of 3.
$500 Atlanta/Washington UNDER 8.5
Has anyone else liked what Tommy Hanson has brought to the Braves rotation? I sure do. It is about time! Once Hudson gets back to full strength the Braves will have one of the best starting 5 in the league. All they need are some guys that can swing lumber and get runs across. Recently that has not been an issue. Against Lannan Saturday, they may go back to struggling. Both starters have a combined 3.56 ERA in this spot. Hanson a 1.54 on road and Lannan a 2.02 at home. Lannan has allowed just 8 ERs over his last 5 home outings. Braves have scored just 6 runs total in his 2 outings against them this season. Just 1 run in Washington. Hanson has never faced Wsh, but has allowed 2 ERs in 2 road starts and has not allowed a run over his last 3 gms over 17+ innings. Look for 5 runs at best.
$200 Pittsburgh/Florida OVER 8.5
I look at these team and starters and say 8.5 runs, are you kidding me? These teams hit the over in game 1 of their series and will do it again Saturday as Duke faces A.Miller. These teams will put up runs in this series. Duke holds a better home ERA and I feel too much weight is based on how well he has pitched at home. In Duke starts, opponents have averaged about 5 runs over his last 3 outings and the same over his last 4 on road. Duke gave up 6 ERs in his last mtg with FLA back in 2007. Florida should put up 6-7 in this one. Miller has not had much backing from his bullpen as he has only allowed 12 ERs over his last 6 at home but opponents scored a total of 27 runs in those gms. Miller already faced Pit this year allowing 4 ERs en route to a 8-0 loss. This one hits about a dozen.
$200 Tampa/Texas OVER 11
Texas totals have been the cornerstone of my totals rally I have going. Already 2 wins this week looking for the hat trick. After a low scoring game the other night Texas opened the flood gates with run scoring going over in two straight. Now a similar low output in the first of this series. I expect these teams will do some damage offensively, especially with Price and Holland facing off. Price has pitched good in several starts but his lack to go deep has given the pen a chance to blow it. In 2 of the 4 road starts this year for Price, the bullpen had a collapse. Price will not last long and Texas will tag the TB pen. Holland has suffered at home allowing 1 ER per home inning roughly. Both teams should put up a half dozen each with a total of 14 or more at the finish!
Yesterday: 6-3, +14.65 units
Currently: -83.65 units
Units remaining: 283.65
JULY 13-5, +36.35 units in 3 days
Totals run of 14-4-1 last 19 plays
7/4/09
Just a few more winning days like the last 3, and I will be on my way. How about that STL game turning around from having 2 losses to 2 wins. Braves fought for the win, and totals go 2-1 to stay hot last night. Small card for Saturday, hoping to go at least 2 of 3.
$500 Atlanta/Washington UNDER 8.5
Has anyone else liked what Tommy Hanson has brought to the Braves rotation? I sure do. It is about time! Once Hudson gets back to full strength the Braves will have one of the best starting 5 in the league. All they need are some guys that can swing lumber and get runs across. Recently that has not been an issue. Against Lannan Saturday, they may go back to struggling. Both starters have a combined 3.56 ERA in this spot. Hanson a 1.54 on road and Lannan a 2.02 at home. Lannan has allowed just 8 ERs over his last 5 home outings. Braves have scored just 6 runs total in his 2 outings against them this season. Just 1 run in Washington. Hanson has never faced Wsh, but has allowed 2 ERs in 2 road starts and has not allowed a run over his last 3 gms over 17+ innings. Look for 5 runs at best.
$200 Pittsburgh/Florida OVER 8.5
I look at these team and starters and say 8.5 runs, are you kidding me? These teams hit the over in game 1 of their series and will do it again Saturday as Duke faces A.Miller. These teams will put up runs in this series. Duke holds a better home ERA and I feel too much weight is based on how well he has pitched at home. In Duke starts, opponents have averaged about 5 runs over his last 3 outings and the same over his last 4 on road. Duke gave up 6 ERs in his last mtg with FLA back in 2007. Florida should put up 6-7 in this one. Miller has not had much backing from his bullpen as he has only allowed 12 ERs over his last 6 at home but opponents scored a total of 27 runs in those gms. Miller already faced Pit this year allowing 4 ERs en route to a 8-0 loss. This one hits about a dozen.
$200 Tampa/Texas OVER 11
Texas totals have been the cornerstone of my totals rally I have going. Already 2 wins this week looking for the hat trick. After a low scoring game the other night Texas opened the flood gates with run scoring going over in two straight. Now a similar low output in the first of this series. I expect these teams will do some damage offensively, especially with Price and Holland facing off. Price has pitched good in several starts but his lack to go deep has given the pen a chance to blow it. In 2 of the 4 road starts this year for Price, the bullpen had a collapse. Price will not last long and Texas will tag the TB pen. Holland has suffered at home allowing 1 ER per home inning roughly. Both teams should put up a half dozen each with a total of 14 or more at the finish!
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-1, +4.80 units
Currently: -78.85 units
Units remaining: 278.85
JULY 15-6, +41.15 units in first 4 days
Totals run of 16-5-1 last 22 plays
7/5/09
Last Sunday there were a few games that were lost late giving me a 2-3 finish to the day. Could've easily went 4-1 and I am hoping this cinderella week continues today, keeping the July run piping hot!
$1000 Boston -270
Never really like laying the big chalk on games, but this systematic play comes with a rate of high return regardless of line. Personally Morrow will struggle against this Sox line-up. He has failed to go deep in games and although he is no longer on a strict pitch count he still gets into trouble and leaves the pen to clean up. The Sox will be doing the cleaning up. Lester has had rough times vs. Seattle but has never faced them at home. Should be a good outing for him, but I do like runs to be scored in this one. Lean to the over and the runline may be wiser for some. I rarely play RLs as my selections are based off of MLs only. Sox have won 5 of the last 6 games that Lester had started. Morrow is 0-3 on the road this season.
$200 Chisox/Royals OVER 9
This game has the most appealing total to me for the day. Bannister has proven he struggles against the Sox. Bannister has given up 5+ ERs in his previous 6 of 7 meetings with the White Sox. This year he gave up 7 in a 11-2 loss. Opponents have averaged 5-6 runs over his last 10 outings and the Sox average 7 runs per game in his last 10 meetings with them. Richard has not pitched well of late, only pitching in 28+ innings in his last 6 outings. He has only gone 6 or more in his last 3 of 6 road starts. KC has not hit the ball well nor have they scored tons of runs lately, but they scored 14 in a Richard outing last season. They managed just 2 runs in his one start against them this year. One of these guys will struggle today, leading to 13 or more runs!
$200 Cards/Reds UNDER 8.5
Caught this one in the nick of time, as this game has risen from a 7.5 to an 8.5 quickly. No one has much faith in Arroyo I guess. After all he has taken a beaten lately, allowing 5 ERs or more in 4 of his last 6 outings. However, he also is 7-1-1 to the under in his last 9 outings vs. STL. We know how well Carpenter can pitch. He already went the distance vs. Cincy this season allowing 1 run. I expect him to have a similar outing. This total will ride on the shoulders of Arroyo, who has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 5 home outings vs. STL. Reds are also 5-1-1 to the under in their last 7 games and have played to the under 11 more times than the over this season. Look for 5-7 in this one.
$200 Rays/Rangers UNDER 9.5
$300 Texas +115
Looking for a fourth straight win with a Texas total. Tonight I lean back to the under after flip flopping back and forth. This team is the best under team in the league, which is surprising at 29-47-3 on the year. Tampa comes into this one at 9-20 in the last 29 in Texas. They struggle to win here. Texas has Feldman facing off with Garza. You will slowly see the 10s and 11s fade down to 9 and 9.5 run totals. Garza is 1-1 in Texas including a 7-0 shutout win in his last meeting with them. Feldman allowed 2 ERs in 7 innings in his only home meeting with the Rays. Opponents have scored 17 runs total in the last 6 games Feldman has started at home. I expect this one to see a 3-2 game midway or even late. Look for the Rangers to continue the winning ways as they should win this one 4-3.
Yesterday: 2-1, +4.80 units
Currently: -78.85 units
Units remaining: 278.85
JULY 15-6, +41.15 units in first 4 days
Totals run of 16-5-1 last 22 plays
7/5/09
Last Sunday there were a few games that were lost late giving me a 2-3 finish to the day. Could've easily went 4-1 and I am hoping this cinderella week continues today, keeping the July run piping hot!
$1000 Boston -270
Never really like laying the big chalk on games, but this systematic play comes with a rate of high return regardless of line. Personally Morrow will struggle against this Sox line-up. He has failed to go deep in games and although he is no longer on a strict pitch count he still gets into trouble and leaves the pen to clean up. The Sox will be doing the cleaning up. Lester has had rough times vs. Seattle but has never faced them at home. Should be a good outing for him, but I do like runs to be scored in this one. Lean to the over and the runline may be wiser for some. I rarely play RLs as my selections are based off of MLs only. Sox have won 5 of the last 6 games that Lester had started. Morrow is 0-3 on the road this season.
$200 Chisox/Royals OVER 9
This game has the most appealing total to me for the day. Bannister has proven he struggles against the Sox. Bannister has given up 5+ ERs in his previous 6 of 7 meetings with the White Sox. This year he gave up 7 in a 11-2 loss. Opponents have averaged 5-6 runs over his last 10 outings and the Sox average 7 runs per game in his last 10 meetings with them. Richard has not pitched well of late, only pitching in 28+ innings in his last 6 outings. He has only gone 6 or more in his last 3 of 6 road starts. KC has not hit the ball well nor have they scored tons of runs lately, but they scored 14 in a Richard outing last season. They managed just 2 runs in his one start against them this year. One of these guys will struggle today, leading to 13 or more runs!
$200 Cards/Reds UNDER 8.5
Caught this one in the nick of time, as this game has risen from a 7.5 to an 8.5 quickly. No one has much faith in Arroyo I guess. After all he has taken a beaten lately, allowing 5 ERs or more in 4 of his last 6 outings. However, he also is 7-1-1 to the under in his last 9 outings vs. STL. We know how well Carpenter can pitch. He already went the distance vs. Cincy this season allowing 1 run. I expect him to have a similar outing. This total will ride on the shoulders of Arroyo, who has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 5 home outings vs. STL. Reds are also 5-1-1 to the under in their last 7 games and have played to the under 11 more times than the over this season. Look for 5-7 in this one.
$200 Rays/Rangers UNDER 9.5
$300 Texas +115
Looking for a fourth straight win with a Texas total. Tonight I lean back to the under after flip flopping back and forth. This team is the best under team in the league, which is surprising at 29-47-3 on the year. Tampa comes into this one at 9-20 in the last 29 in Texas. They struggle to win here. Texas has Feldman facing off with Garza. You will slowly see the 10s and 11s fade down to 9 and 9.5 run totals. Garza is 1-1 in Texas including a 7-0 shutout win in his last meeting with them. Feldman allowed 2 ERs in 7 innings in his only home meeting with the Rays. Opponents have scored 17 runs total in the last 6 games Feldman has started at home. I expect this one to see a 3-2 game midway or even late. Look for the Rangers to continue the winning ways as they should win this one 4-3.
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The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-1-1, +13.25 units
Currently: -65.6 units
Units remaining: 265.6
18-7-1, +54.4 units since 7/1
Totals run: 17-6-2 last 25.
7/6/09
$300 NY Yankees -145
$200 Tor/NYY Under 9.5
The Yanks look for the sweep from Jays who have gone 2-8 in their last 10 gms. Pettitte is 8-3 on the season. Pettitte has only allowed 6 ERs in his last 3 outings, 9 ERs in his last 3 at home. The Jays slumping offense needs to give Romero a cushion. After a few high scoring games these teams will come back to reality and struggle to get runs today. Romero has been impecable. He is 6-3(2.85) on the year but is 3-0, with a 0.82 ERA over his last 3. Jays have won the last 4 Romero has started but played TB who has scored 11 runs in their last 5 gms, the Nats(say no more), and Philly two times, a team that had lost 12 of 17 before the Mets series and scored 4 runs or less in 16 of their last 28. Does not say much for Romero and his stats.
$400 Cincy +155
Cueto faces Hamels. I like what Cueto has brought to the table in Cincy, and Hamels, well we know what he can do. Just have not seen much of that this season. Nothing to like about Philly. The public may think they are hot now after dropping a plenty over the last 30 days but they swept the Mets. Swept a team that has not been able to score enough to win games. Philly still lacked run support in that series. Hamels may be fighting injury and playing through it which could be why he is struggling this year. I think the Reds are a live dog in this spot. If things are normal in this one, we could witness a 4-3 game but I have a strange feel that this one could get out of hand. Play the plus money tonight as the Reds steal this one from the Phills on the road!
$500 LA Angels -150
This is a rematch from last week, one that Millwood and the Rangers won by a score of 9-7. Jered Weaver has been a home workhorse at 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA in LA. Weaver has only allowed 3 ERs in his previous 3 home mtgs with Tex. Rangers have won 3 of the last 4 Millwood has started vs. LAA, but previously were just 2-6. This time around, the public will perceive a result similar to the last meeting between these starters. I disagree with that. Weaver has the edge at home. Millwood has weaker numbers on the road. Texas is just 2-5 in Millwood road starts this year. LA has won 12 of their last 15 games following a win, and have won 8 of the last 9 opening series games.
$200 SD/Arizona OVER 10
Jon Garland has been anything but great this season, especially at home. Walter Silva will match-up against Garland. Both of these starters have been horrendous in this spot. Garland has a 7.51 home ERA, while Silva has a 16.71 ERA on the road. Both starters have a combined WHIP of 3.45 which means there will possibly be a lot of base runners. In Garlands last 4 home outings, opponents combined for 38 total runs. Garland allowed 33 total hits over those 4 outings at home in less than 20 innings of work. Garland allowed 6 ERs in his last meeting with the Pads, this season, in a 6-3 loss. Silva has gone over in his two road starts this year. The over has hit in 13 of the last 16 meetings between these clubs. Opponents have averaged 7 runs per game over Silvas 5 outings this year.
$200 KC/Detroit UNDER 9
Both the Tigers and Royals have struggled for runs lately. The Royals have scored 27 runs in their last 10, and 12 of those came in the last 2 gms. Detroit has only scored 38 in their last 10 but more importantly, they have scored more than 4 runs only in 3 of those recent 10 games. Last season these teams had a span of 9 of 10 games that went under. Gil Meche(4-8, 4.20) faces Galarraga(5-7, 5.34). Meche has had tremendous success vs. Det on the road allowing 9 ERs in his last 5 in Detroit. Galarraga is 2-0 in his last 3 starts and looks to be back. Armando has not had trouble facing the Royals. In 3 career outings the Royals managed just 5 total runs. Look for this one to finish in the 6 run range in 4-2 fashion, keeping this one well under the total.
Yesterday: 3-1-1, +13.25 units
Currently: -65.6 units
Units remaining: 265.6
18-7-1, +54.4 units since 7/1
Totals run: 17-6-2 last 25.
7/6/09
$300 NY Yankees -145
$200 Tor/NYY Under 9.5
The Yanks look for the sweep from Jays who have gone 2-8 in their last 10 gms. Pettitte is 8-3 on the season. Pettitte has only allowed 6 ERs in his last 3 outings, 9 ERs in his last 3 at home. The Jays slumping offense needs to give Romero a cushion. After a few high scoring games these teams will come back to reality and struggle to get runs today. Romero has been impecable. He is 6-3(2.85) on the year but is 3-0, with a 0.82 ERA over his last 3. Jays have won the last 4 Romero has started but played TB who has scored 11 runs in their last 5 gms, the Nats(say no more), and Philly two times, a team that had lost 12 of 17 before the Mets series and scored 4 runs or less in 16 of their last 28. Does not say much for Romero and his stats.
$400 Cincy +155
Cueto faces Hamels. I like what Cueto has brought to the table in Cincy, and Hamels, well we know what he can do. Just have not seen much of that this season. Nothing to like about Philly. The public may think they are hot now after dropping a plenty over the last 30 days but they swept the Mets. Swept a team that has not been able to score enough to win games. Philly still lacked run support in that series. Hamels may be fighting injury and playing through it which could be why he is struggling this year. I think the Reds are a live dog in this spot. If things are normal in this one, we could witness a 4-3 game but I have a strange feel that this one could get out of hand. Play the plus money tonight as the Reds steal this one from the Phills on the road!
$500 LA Angels -150
This is a rematch from last week, one that Millwood and the Rangers won by a score of 9-7. Jered Weaver has been a home workhorse at 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA in LA. Weaver has only allowed 3 ERs in his previous 3 home mtgs with Tex. Rangers have won 3 of the last 4 Millwood has started vs. LAA, but previously were just 2-6. This time around, the public will perceive a result similar to the last meeting between these starters. I disagree with that. Weaver has the edge at home. Millwood has weaker numbers on the road. Texas is just 2-5 in Millwood road starts this year. LA has won 12 of their last 15 games following a win, and have won 8 of the last 9 opening series games.
$200 SD/Arizona OVER 10
Jon Garland has been anything but great this season, especially at home. Walter Silva will match-up against Garland. Both of these starters have been horrendous in this spot. Garland has a 7.51 home ERA, while Silva has a 16.71 ERA on the road. Both starters have a combined WHIP of 3.45 which means there will possibly be a lot of base runners. In Garlands last 4 home outings, opponents combined for 38 total runs. Garland allowed 33 total hits over those 4 outings at home in less than 20 innings of work. Garland allowed 6 ERs in his last meeting with the Pads, this season, in a 6-3 loss. Silva has gone over in his two road starts this year. The over has hit in 13 of the last 16 meetings between these clubs. Opponents have averaged 7 runs per game over Silvas 5 outings this year.
$200 KC/Detroit UNDER 9
Both the Tigers and Royals have struggled for runs lately. The Royals have scored 27 runs in their last 10, and 12 of those came in the last 2 gms. Detroit has only scored 38 in their last 10 but more importantly, they have scored more than 4 runs only in 3 of those recent 10 games. Last season these teams had a span of 9 of 10 games that went under. Gil Meche(4-8, 4.20) faces Galarraga(5-7, 5.34). Meche has had tremendous success vs. Det on the road allowing 9 ERs in his last 5 in Detroit. Galarraga is 2-0 in his last 3 starts and looks to be back. Armando has not had trouble facing the Royals. In 3 career outings the Royals managed just 5 total runs. Look for this one to finish in the 6 run range in 4-2 fashion, keeping this one well under the total.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-3, -1.55 units
Currently: -67.15 units
Units remaining: 267.15
21-10-1, +52.85 units in first 6 days of July
Totals run of 19-7-2 last 28.
First losing day of July, only 1.55 units. I pulled the trigger on the Yanks total late, and it cost me a winning day. I had that total and the Astros total going under but trimmed the card to 5 plays, then adding the Yankee under. I never felt like posting back here for just one play on the Astros game. Still plenty of days left but it could very well come down to a little mistake like that causing a pass or fail for this thread!
7/7/09
$500 LA Dodgers -135
Kershaw(5-5, 3.49 ERA) will try to keep the Mets slumping as he will face Pelfrey(6-3, 4.26 ERA). The Mets have lacked pitching and of course the lumber at the plate. Pelfrey would certainly need one of his best outings of the year to come out victorious in this one. Pelfrey allowed 2 ERs over 7 innings in his home start last year vs. LA. The Mets are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts and opponents have scored 24 runs in his last 3 at home. LA has new life with Manny back, as they have scored 17 runs in his 3 games back while the previous 6 gms saw 16 total runs. That says a lot. Kershaw has gone 2-0(1.00) in his last 3. Opponents have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 8 outings, and he has allowed just 2 ERs in his last 24 innings. Mets slide continues.
$500 TB Rays -185
This line has crept down from the opening of over -200 for Shields and the Rays. Primarily for the fact that the Rays will not face Brad Mills tonight. Instead, Rzepczynski, tough to spell, will get his first start. Either way, the Rays are miserable after losing to the Rangers in all 3 games. They will get a measure of revenge tonight. Shields has not pitched bad against the jays and I feel if Tampa can put up at least 5-6 in this one they will win it easily. More and more shy away from this game, because of the dominant pitching that has come up into the majors this year, but for every star there is a not so hot prospect. Tampa by 3.
$200 Boston -1.5(-120)
Not taking the juice as the Sox have been sour lately losing some games they should have won. The way things are looking with the Eveland, and Beckett match-up they should win this by 4+ tonight. Dana Eveland has struggled lately, allowing 7 ERs in his last outing and has allowed 4 or more ERs in 4 of his last 6. Not to mention in 2 starts he allowed 14 ERs to the Sox. Beckett doesnt need an explanation as he has proven he can pitch, especially at home. Against Oakland, the As have managed just 12 runs in his last 4 against him. Nothing proves that they will put up more runs than usual in this one. Beckett really has not changed over the course of those 3+ seasons. Look for an over in this one as Boston should roll 7-3 or 8-4.
$200 NY Yankees/Minnesota UNDER 9
Sabathia and Baker come into this game with nearly identical WHIP at 1.15 and 1.14 respectively. Sabathia comes off the rough outing against Seattle so I expect the bounce back. Since 2007, he has not allowed more than 2 ERs in any of the 6 starts vs. Min. CC has actually gone 17 straight innings with 0 ERs allowed vs. Minnesota. Baker is not too shabby either, as he has settled in nicely after the Twins were having trouble with starters early on. Baker had a rough May, but is cruising in June, not allowing more than 3 ERs in any of his 6 starts. He has not faced the Yanks since 06, where he allowed 2 ERs in 12 innings, allowing 5 hits in those 2 games with 8 Ks. It has been a few years, but Baker will control this game. Minny has gone 20-6-2 to the under, last 28 as dogs. 4-2 final.
$200 Baltimore/Seattle UNDER 8
The Ms will send Bedard to the hill to face off with Guthrie and the Os. In Guthries last 3, opponents have averaged 3 runs per game. All 3 games went under the total. Guthrie has only allowed 9 ERs in his previous 4 starts against Seattle, which has been a hair over 2 per outing. Seattle managed just 11 runs in those 4 gms, and all 4 of those starts went under by a combined 12.5 runs. That is clearing the under by 3 runs per game. Bedard has a 2.15 ERA at home this season. He has failed to allow the opposition more than 2 ERs at home all year. He already faced the Os this season, at home, only allowing 1 ER over 6+ innings of work. Bedard and the Ms have gone 4-1 to the under in his last 5 outings, which have usually been set at 7.5 runs. I expect a 3-2 final or similar to it.
Yesterday: 3-3, -1.55 units
Currently: -67.15 units
Units remaining: 267.15
21-10-1, +52.85 units in first 6 days of July
Totals run of 19-7-2 last 28.
First losing day of July, only 1.55 units. I pulled the trigger on the Yanks total late, and it cost me a winning day. I had that total and the Astros total going under but trimmed the card to 5 plays, then adding the Yankee under. I never felt like posting back here for just one play on the Astros game. Still plenty of days left but it could very well come down to a little mistake like that causing a pass or fail for this thread!
7/7/09
$500 LA Dodgers -135
Kershaw(5-5, 3.49 ERA) will try to keep the Mets slumping as he will face Pelfrey(6-3, 4.26 ERA). The Mets have lacked pitching and of course the lumber at the plate. Pelfrey would certainly need one of his best outings of the year to come out victorious in this one. Pelfrey allowed 2 ERs over 7 innings in his home start last year vs. LA. The Mets are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts and opponents have scored 24 runs in his last 3 at home. LA has new life with Manny back, as they have scored 17 runs in his 3 games back while the previous 6 gms saw 16 total runs. That says a lot. Kershaw has gone 2-0(1.00) in his last 3. Opponents have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 8 outings, and he has allowed just 2 ERs in his last 24 innings. Mets slide continues.
$500 TB Rays -185
This line has crept down from the opening of over -200 for Shields and the Rays. Primarily for the fact that the Rays will not face Brad Mills tonight. Instead, Rzepczynski, tough to spell, will get his first start. Either way, the Rays are miserable after losing to the Rangers in all 3 games. They will get a measure of revenge tonight. Shields has not pitched bad against the jays and I feel if Tampa can put up at least 5-6 in this one they will win it easily. More and more shy away from this game, because of the dominant pitching that has come up into the majors this year, but for every star there is a not so hot prospect. Tampa by 3.
$200 Boston -1.5(-120)
Not taking the juice as the Sox have been sour lately losing some games they should have won. The way things are looking with the Eveland, and Beckett match-up they should win this by 4+ tonight. Dana Eveland has struggled lately, allowing 7 ERs in his last outing and has allowed 4 or more ERs in 4 of his last 6. Not to mention in 2 starts he allowed 14 ERs to the Sox. Beckett doesnt need an explanation as he has proven he can pitch, especially at home. Against Oakland, the As have managed just 12 runs in his last 4 against him. Nothing proves that they will put up more runs than usual in this one. Beckett really has not changed over the course of those 3+ seasons. Look for an over in this one as Boston should roll 7-3 or 8-4.
$200 NY Yankees/Minnesota UNDER 9
Sabathia and Baker come into this game with nearly identical WHIP at 1.15 and 1.14 respectively. Sabathia comes off the rough outing against Seattle so I expect the bounce back. Since 2007, he has not allowed more than 2 ERs in any of the 6 starts vs. Min. CC has actually gone 17 straight innings with 0 ERs allowed vs. Minnesota. Baker is not too shabby either, as he has settled in nicely after the Twins were having trouble with starters early on. Baker had a rough May, but is cruising in June, not allowing more than 3 ERs in any of his 6 starts. He has not faced the Yanks since 06, where he allowed 2 ERs in 12 innings, allowing 5 hits in those 2 games with 8 Ks. It has been a few years, but Baker will control this game. Minny has gone 20-6-2 to the under, last 28 as dogs. 4-2 final.
$200 Baltimore/Seattle UNDER 8
The Ms will send Bedard to the hill to face off with Guthrie and the Os. In Guthries last 3, opponents have averaged 3 runs per game. All 3 games went under the total. Guthrie has only allowed 9 ERs in his previous 4 starts against Seattle, which has been a hair over 2 per outing. Seattle managed just 11 runs in those 4 gms, and all 4 of those starts went under by a combined 12.5 runs. That is clearing the under by 3 runs per game. Bedard has a 2.15 ERA at home this season. He has failed to allow the opposition more than 2 ERs at home all year. He already faced the Os this season, at home, only allowing 1 ER over 6+ innings of work. Bedard and the Ms have gone 4-1 to the under in his last 5 outings, which have usually been set at 7.5 runs. I expect a 3-2 final or similar to it.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-2, +7.6 units
Currently: -59.55 units
Units remaining: 259.55
24-12-1, +60.45 units in first 7 days of July
Totals run of 19-9-2 last 30.
Sides 3-0 Wed, totals 0-2. Not a storybook Wednesday but completely flipped around the last days of June. Went from 6 under .500 in 3 final days in June to +12 over .500 in the first 7 days in July. A difference of a week makes a big impression.
Let's keep this going through the end of August!
7/8/09
$300 San Fran -115
$200 Florida/San Fran UNDER 8.5
Sadowski tries to keep the scoreless innings streak alive. Not every up and coming new face will have success like this. Sadowski has completely shut down the opposition. He has allowed 7 hits over 13 innings. Sadowski has a WHIP of 0.85 after the 2 starts. Volstad will try to out duel Sadowski but it wont be easy. He has allowed 16 ERs in his last 4 away from home. Volstad is 8-2-1 to the under in his last 11 as a plus money starter. He faced SF this season allowing just 2 ERs at home in a 2-1 final. The total will rest on Volstad, and if he can pitch similar to the last mtg, this one should clear the under easy. Florida has scored 38 over their last 10 games, and in their 7 other than the Nats series, just 22 runs. Roughly 3 RPG. If this occurs again the Giants win a low scoring contest.
$200 SD/Arizona OVER 9
The over is 14-4, last 18 mtgs, and 58 runs were scored in the previous 5 in Arizona. Both starters help vouch for an over today. Gaudin has a 5.23 ERA on road, while M.Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA at home. Gaudin has allowed 12 ERs in his 2 mtgs with Zona while Scherzer has allowed just 2 ERs in his 2, but the relief has allowed 9 runs in those 2 ballgames. All four games these guys pitched in went over. Opponents have brought in 29 runs total in Scherzers last 5. Between all of the 4 starts in this series between these starters, there were 45 totals runs in those games, averaging 11 per. Even if each starter gives up a few each, the relief should allow at least 3-4 putting this one at the 10+ run mark. Zona has averaged 7.5 RPG over Gaudins last 2, and SD averaged 5.5 RPG in Scherzers last 2.
$200 Boston -165
Wakefield will look to master the As for a third straight time Wednesday. Wake is 6-0 at home this year. The As have only scored 3 total runs in his last 2 outings against them. Tim didnt allow a run in his lone home start vs. Oak last season. This year he went the distance in Oakland allowing 2 ERs. Oakland has only scored a total of 14 runs in his 4 outings previous to today. Cahill will go for the As, and after 7 consecutive quality starts, his recent 2 outings were anything but quality. He allowed 12 ERs over 7 and a third, and the opponents put up a combined 26 runs in those games. Opponents have scored 36 runs in his last 4. Wakefield is on the bounce-back and is 3-1 in a bounce-back effort on the season. Sox have also outscored Oakland in the last 5 Fenway mtgs by a 24-13 margin.
Yesterday: 3-2, +7.6 units
Currently: -59.55 units
Units remaining: 259.55
24-12-1, +60.45 units in first 7 days of July
Totals run of 19-9-2 last 30.
Sides 3-0 Wed, totals 0-2. Not a storybook Wednesday but completely flipped around the last days of June. Went from 6 under .500 in 3 final days in June to +12 over .500 in the first 7 days in July. A difference of a week makes a big impression.
Let's keep this going through the end of August!
7/8/09
$300 San Fran -115
$200 Florida/San Fran UNDER 8.5
Sadowski tries to keep the scoreless innings streak alive. Not every up and coming new face will have success like this. Sadowski has completely shut down the opposition. He has allowed 7 hits over 13 innings. Sadowski has a WHIP of 0.85 after the 2 starts. Volstad will try to out duel Sadowski but it wont be easy. He has allowed 16 ERs in his last 4 away from home. Volstad is 8-2-1 to the under in his last 11 as a plus money starter. He faced SF this season allowing just 2 ERs at home in a 2-1 final. The total will rest on Volstad, and if he can pitch similar to the last mtg, this one should clear the under easy. Florida has scored 38 over their last 10 games, and in their 7 other than the Nats series, just 22 runs. Roughly 3 RPG. If this occurs again the Giants win a low scoring contest.
$200 SD/Arizona OVER 9
The over is 14-4, last 18 mtgs, and 58 runs were scored in the previous 5 in Arizona. Both starters help vouch for an over today. Gaudin has a 5.23 ERA on road, while M.Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA at home. Gaudin has allowed 12 ERs in his 2 mtgs with Zona while Scherzer has allowed just 2 ERs in his 2, but the relief has allowed 9 runs in those 2 ballgames. All four games these guys pitched in went over. Opponents have brought in 29 runs total in Scherzers last 5. Between all of the 4 starts in this series between these starters, there were 45 totals runs in those games, averaging 11 per. Even if each starter gives up a few each, the relief should allow at least 3-4 putting this one at the 10+ run mark. Zona has averaged 7.5 RPG over Gaudins last 2, and SD averaged 5.5 RPG in Scherzers last 2.
$200 Boston -165
Wakefield will look to master the As for a third straight time Wednesday. Wake is 6-0 at home this year. The As have only scored 3 total runs in his last 2 outings against them. Tim didnt allow a run in his lone home start vs. Oak last season. This year he went the distance in Oakland allowing 2 ERs. Oakland has only scored a total of 14 runs in his 4 outings previous to today. Cahill will go for the As, and after 7 consecutive quality starts, his recent 2 outings were anything but quality. He allowed 12 ERs over 7 and a third, and the opponents put up a combined 26 runs in those games. Opponents have scored 36 runs in his last 4. Wakefield is on the bounce-back and is 3-1 in a bounce-back effort on the season. Sox have also outscored Oakland in the last 5 Fenway mtgs by a 24-13 margin.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-2, -1.65 units
Currently: -61.20 units
Units remaining: 261.20
26-14-1, +58.80 units in first 8 days of July
Totals run of 20-10-2 last 32.
7/9/09
$1000 NY Yankees -105
Minnesota will try its best to stop a home sweep vs. Yanks today but will come up short. I know Liriano faced the Yanks earlier this season allowing just 1 ER on the road, but Liriano has not been the dominant pitcher he once was. He is 4-8 on the season with a 5.5 ERA just about. Not an ace in my book. The yanks have owned the Twins for years, and they send Aceves to the hill to fill in for Wang. Acevas has started previously and has not looked shabby. Yanks are 4-0 in Aceves starts and have outscored opponents 31-11 in those games. He has only allowed 7 ERs in his 4 starts so look for the Twins offense to sputter again. Yanks by a run.
Back with the rest later on.
Yesterday: 2-2, -1.65 units
Currently: -61.20 units
Units remaining: 261.20
26-14-1, +58.80 units in first 8 days of July
Totals run of 20-10-2 last 32.
7/9/09
$1000 NY Yankees -105
Minnesota will try its best to stop a home sweep vs. Yanks today but will come up short. I know Liriano faced the Yanks earlier this season allowing just 1 ER on the road, but Liriano has not been the dominant pitcher he once was. He is 4-8 on the season with a 5.5 ERA just about. Not an ace in my book. The yanks have owned the Twins for years, and they send Aceves to the hill to fill in for Wang. Acevas has started previously and has not looked shabby. Yanks are 4-0 in Aceves starts and have outscored opponents 31-11 in those games. He has only allowed 7 ERs in his 4 starts so look for the Twins offense to sputter again. Yanks by a run.
Back with the rest later on.
Remaining card for 7/9/09:
$1000 Houston -110
The Nats are in a bad position in this one, as they are 1-13 in game 1s of a series on the road this year. It gets worse as they are 5-23 in game 1s for the season and have yet to win in the road game following a road loss (0-5). Lannan has had some stellar outings this year, however, he has not gone deep in his last 3 following a long outing. He has faced the Stros 3x, allowing 7 ERs in 17 innings. Houston gets at least 4 on the board and that will be enough for the win. Nats have scored an average of 3 RPG over their last 15 road games. Ortiz has only allowed 12 ERs in his 6 home outings, and just 4 ERs in his last 3. Astros 4-3. Nats are 5-14 in last 19 Lannan rd starts. Astros are 24-11 in last 35 as a home fave.
$1000 San Fran -260
Lincecum has done everything right at home vs. SD in the past. He allowed 2 ERs in 4 home starts vs. SD in 28 inngs. Looking at his numbers vs. SD, he has only really had one bad outing vs. SD and that came on road. He allowed 4 ERs in less than 6 inngs. His last 10 vs. Pads shows a 7-3 team record, with only 11 ERs allowed over 69 innings. He usually allows 0-1 ER per outing. SF has won all 4 home outings, and outscored SD 16-8 in those gms. Josh Geer will counter for the Pads who were swept by Arizona. Padres have lost 6 of 7. Geer has allowed 20 ERs in his last 4 on road. SD will only compete with a superb effort from Geer, who on the road is 0-2(6.55 ERA). Pads are 5-9 in Geer starts, and 0-4 in his road ones. Pads run scoring over their last 8: 1 2 3 7 then 6 5 3 and 2.
$500 Atlanta +120
$200 Atl/Col Under 9
Hanson has been a great find. Glavine and Smoltz are distant memories. Hanson has been sharp over his last 5, allowing just 3 ERs which were bookends to 3 scoreless outings. Hanson is 4-0(2.25) on the year. He has gone an avg of 6 inngs per start, and looks sharper each time out. He had his longest outing his last start. Braves are 5-1 in Hansons starts. Rockies are 25-7 in their last 32 ballgames. Braves have won 7 of 10. The Rockies will have a letdown game after an easy sweep vs. Wsh. Cook is 8-3(3.76) and has dominated opponents of late allowing 1 ER in 4 of his last 6. The other two were 2 ER and 3 ER efforts. Too impressed with Hanson as he carved through the Sox and Yanks like they were non contenders. Braves 4-2.
$200 Fla/Arz Under 10
Andrew Miller will take to the hill to battle Petit tonight in Arizona. Miller has faced Zona 3 times previously, all quality starts. He allowed 2 runs over 7 innings in his most recent, back in May. Arizona has had trouble putting up massive amounts of runs and they will find themselves in another situation like that today facing Miller. Petit has been pretty awful lately allowing 18 ERs in his last 4 outings. He has however, pitched against the Marlins, where he allowed 1 ER over 6 innings just last season. That contest went under and so did Miller at a 2-0-1 clip to the under in his 3 vs. Arz. One of these starters, if not both, will have an outstanding effort in this one. Look for a 4-3 final at best if both pitchers have decent outings.
$200 Boston -1.5(Even)
Sox and Yanks continue their battle for supremacy in the AL East. One thing is for sure, the Red Sox will need to keep winning in this division. KC has started to slump as they do each and every year. Penny goes against Hochevar tonight. Penny has never faced KC, while Hoch has faced Boston 2x and allowed 12 ERs. Boston won those games by a 15-2 margin. Penny has been outstanding at home of late, and the Sox own KC at home. In their last 4 meetings in Boston, the Sox outscored KC 26-12, and in their last 7 meetings, Boston has a 45-20 scoring edge. Red Sox by 4.
$1000 Houston -110
The Nats are in a bad position in this one, as they are 1-13 in game 1s of a series on the road this year. It gets worse as they are 5-23 in game 1s for the season and have yet to win in the road game following a road loss (0-5). Lannan has had some stellar outings this year, however, he has not gone deep in his last 3 following a long outing. He has faced the Stros 3x, allowing 7 ERs in 17 innings. Houston gets at least 4 on the board and that will be enough for the win. Nats have scored an average of 3 RPG over their last 15 road games. Ortiz has only allowed 12 ERs in his 6 home outings, and just 4 ERs in his last 3. Astros 4-3. Nats are 5-14 in last 19 Lannan rd starts. Astros are 24-11 in last 35 as a home fave.
$1000 San Fran -260
Lincecum has done everything right at home vs. SD in the past. He allowed 2 ERs in 4 home starts vs. SD in 28 inngs. Looking at his numbers vs. SD, he has only really had one bad outing vs. SD and that came on road. He allowed 4 ERs in less than 6 inngs. His last 10 vs. Pads shows a 7-3 team record, with only 11 ERs allowed over 69 innings. He usually allows 0-1 ER per outing. SF has won all 4 home outings, and outscored SD 16-8 in those gms. Josh Geer will counter for the Pads who were swept by Arizona. Padres have lost 6 of 7. Geer has allowed 20 ERs in his last 4 on road. SD will only compete with a superb effort from Geer, who on the road is 0-2(6.55 ERA). Pads are 5-9 in Geer starts, and 0-4 in his road ones. Pads run scoring over their last 8: 1 2 3 7 then 6 5 3 and 2.
$500 Atlanta +120
$200 Atl/Col Under 9
Hanson has been a great find. Glavine and Smoltz are distant memories. Hanson has been sharp over his last 5, allowing just 3 ERs which were bookends to 3 scoreless outings. Hanson is 4-0(2.25) on the year. He has gone an avg of 6 inngs per start, and looks sharper each time out. He had his longest outing his last start. Braves are 5-1 in Hansons starts. Rockies are 25-7 in their last 32 ballgames. Braves have won 7 of 10. The Rockies will have a letdown game after an easy sweep vs. Wsh. Cook is 8-3(3.76) and has dominated opponents of late allowing 1 ER in 4 of his last 6. The other two were 2 ER and 3 ER efforts. Too impressed with Hanson as he carved through the Sox and Yanks like they were non contenders. Braves 4-2.
$200 Fla/Arz Under 10
Andrew Miller will take to the hill to battle Petit tonight in Arizona. Miller has faced Zona 3 times previously, all quality starts. He allowed 2 runs over 7 innings in his most recent, back in May. Arizona has had trouble putting up massive amounts of runs and they will find themselves in another situation like that today facing Miller. Petit has been pretty awful lately allowing 18 ERs in his last 4 outings. He has however, pitched against the Marlins, where he allowed 1 ER over 6 innings just last season. That contest went under and so did Miller at a 2-0-1 clip to the under in his 3 vs. Arz. One of these starters, if not both, will have an outstanding effort in this one. Look for a 4-3 final at best if both pitchers have decent outings.
$200 Boston -1.5(Even)
Sox and Yanks continue their battle for supremacy in the AL East. One thing is for sure, the Red Sox will need to keep winning in this division. KC has started to slump as they do each and every year. Penny goes against Hochevar tonight. Penny has never faced KC, while Hoch has faced Boston 2x and allowed 12 ERs. Boston won those games by a 15-2 margin. Penny has been outstanding at home of late, and the Sox own KC at home. In their last 4 meetings in Boston, the Sox outscored KC 26-12, and in their last 7 meetings, Boston has a 45-20 scoring edge. Red Sox by 4.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-4, +18.6 units
Currently: -42.60 units
Units remaining: 242.60
26-14-1, +77.40 units in first 9 days of July
Totals run of 20-12-2 last 34
7/10/09
$1000 Baltimore -105
The Orioles defeated the Jays 7-2 the last time Berken took the hill against this team. Look for similar results today as Baltimore will defeat Brett Cecil. Cecil has never faced Baltimore, but Toronto has lost his last 3 road starts and his last 4 all together. Opponents have scored 23 runs in his 4 road starts this year and 39 runs in his 7 starts total. That averages out to 5-6 per game. That will be enough against a Jays team who has lost 10 of their last 12 and are 16-30 in their last 46 gms. Talk about down the toilet. Throw in a 2-8 mark in their last 10 rd gms and 7-18 in their last 25 road gms you have trouble. Berken has not pitched bad at home and even if allowing 3-4 in this one, his team will get runs off the Jays. Look for a 3-4 run win by Baltimore.
$500 LA Angels +120
Yankees are 13-2 last 15 gms. Angels have won the last 7 of 9 mtgs at home with NY. Saunders will face Chamberlain. Joba has struggled at times this year. Opponents have tallied 17 total runs over his last 3 outings. He is 4-0 on road this year but Yanks come off a bullpen workout in the finale against Minny and will need Joba to go deep in this one to have a chance. Angels outscored Yanks 59-36 last year and 42-22 at home. Saunders will be happy he doesnt have to face Texas this time around as 15 of the 39 ERs he has allowed in his last 10 were at Texas. Besides those 2 outings, it shows over the other 8 gms he allowed just 24 ERs. He allowed 3 ERs in his last mtg with NY in a 4-3 win. Saunders has given up 23 ERs in 60+ inn at hm which makes LAA a live home dog.
$500 Oakland +150
The As have gotten some quality pitching of late and TB has struggled to score runs. A look back over each teams last 10 shows Oakland has allowed 5 or less total runs per game in 9 of their last 10. Tampa has only scored 5 runs or more in 2 of their last 10, making for a nice attempt at an upset. Tampa is over valued at home coming off the sweep of the lowly Jays who have lost 30 of their last 46 games. Niemann will go for TB and has allowed 14 ERs in nearly 30 innings at home. Mazzaro started out his Oakland career on fire but has simmered in his last 3 allowing 12 ERs in just 17 inn. He has been able to go 6+ in all but one start this year. He has allowed 10 ERs in 4 rd starts and opponents have netted an average of about 3 RPG in his rd outings. Should see a 4-3 final here.
$500 Chisox +115
Somehow, the White Sox come out victorious more than not with Danks on the hill against Minnesota. His stats arent the greatest but the Sox have won 4 of last 5 Danks outings against Minny. Blackburn can not say the same as the Twins are just 2-4 in his last 6 against the Sox. Both starters can definitly pitch a quality start tonight. Danks has only allowed 2 ERs in his last 2 outings vs. Minny over nearly 14 innings. Blackburn has allowed 3 ERs in his last 13 innings vs. Chicago. I give the edge to Danks who is in the zone right now pitching 7+ innings in his last 5 starts. Sox are 6-3 in Danks last 9 outings. Chicago 5-3.
$300 Florida/Arizona UNDER 8 (Nolasco/Haren)
Nolasco and Haren will both keep this one under the total. Nolasco is on fire of late as are the Marlins in his recent 5 outings. Florida is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he has gone 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA over his last 3. Opponents have only combined for 11 runs over his last 6 outings. Nolasco and the fish are 4-0 in his 4 previous outings against Arz. He allowed just 4 ERs in his 3 outings last season over a span of over 22 innings. All three of those outings went under the total. Haren has been anything but a slouch recently, as he has gone 2-1 in his last 3, with a 1.80 ERA. He has a 1.95 ERA at home. Haren has allowed 2 ERs or less in his last 8 starts, one of the longest streaks in the bigs right now. Last season he allowed 4 ERs over 2 outings vs. Fla. Look for 5 runs max in this one.
$200 Boston -1.5(-115)
(Bannister/Lester)
Red Sox are 4-2 after an opening series loss at home in gm 2. They send Lester to face Bannister. The Red Sox should bounce back after the loss last night but it seems like they are on a downswing as far as runs go. They are only 5-5 in their last 10. The good thing is their pitching has been great of late. Lester is at the top of that list going 2-0 in his last 3 with a 1.83 ERA. Boston has won 6 of his last 7 outings. Bannister and the Royals are complete opposites, losing 6 of his last 8 starts. The Sox have scored 23 runs in his previous 3 outings against them while KC was shutout last time they faced Lester. Last year, Lester went the distance allowing just 2 walks. A no-hit complete game. Royals should get a beat down after last night. Boston 7-1.
Yesterday: 3-4, +18.6 units
Currently: -42.60 units
Units remaining: 242.60
26-14-1, +77.40 units in first 9 days of July
Totals run of 20-12-2 last 34
7/10/09
$1000 Baltimore -105
The Orioles defeated the Jays 7-2 the last time Berken took the hill against this team. Look for similar results today as Baltimore will defeat Brett Cecil. Cecil has never faced Baltimore, but Toronto has lost his last 3 road starts and his last 4 all together. Opponents have scored 23 runs in his 4 road starts this year and 39 runs in his 7 starts total. That averages out to 5-6 per game. That will be enough against a Jays team who has lost 10 of their last 12 and are 16-30 in their last 46 gms. Talk about down the toilet. Throw in a 2-8 mark in their last 10 rd gms and 7-18 in their last 25 road gms you have trouble. Berken has not pitched bad at home and even if allowing 3-4 in this one, his team will get runs off the Jays. Look for a 3-4 run win by Baltimore.
$500 LA Angels +120
Yankees are 13-2 last 15 gms. Angels have won the last 7 of 9 mtgs at home with NY. Saunders will face Chamberlain. Joba has struggled at times this year. Opponents have tallied 17 total runs over his last 3 outings. He is 4-0 on road this year but Yanks come off a bullpen workout in the finale against Minny and will need Joba to go deep in this one to have a chance. Angels outscored Yanks 59-36 last year and 42-22 at home. Saunders will be happy he doesnt have to face Texas this time around as 15 of the 39 ERs he has allowed in his last 10 were at Texas. Besides those 2 outings, it shows over the other 8 gms he allowed just 24 ERs. He allowed 3 ERs in his last mtg with NY in a 4-3 win. Saunders has given up 23 ERs in 60+ inn at hm which makes LAA a live home dog.
$500 Oakland +150
The As have gotten some quality pitching of late and TB has struggled to score runs. A look back over each teams last 10 shows Oakland has allowed 5 or less total runs per game in 9 of their last 10. Tampa has only scored 5 runs or more in 2 of their last 10, making for a nice attempt at an upset. Tampa is over valued at home coming off the sweep of the lowly Jays who have lost 30 of their last 46 games. Niemann will go for TB and has allowed 14 ERs in nearly 30 innings at home. Mazzaro started out his Oakland career on fire but has simmered in his last 3 allowing 12 ERs in just 17 inn. He has been able to go 6+ in all but one start this year. He has allowed 10 ERs in 4 rd starts and opponents have netted an average of about 3 RPG in his rd outings. Should see a 4-3 final here.
$500 Chisox +115
Somehow, the White Sox come out victorious more than not with Danks on the hill against Minnesota. His stats arent the greatest but the Sox have won 4 of last 5 Danks outings against Minny. Blackburn can not say the same as the Twins are just 2-4 in his last 6 against the Sox. Both starters can definitly pitch a quality start tonight. Danks has only allowed 2 ERs in his last 2 outings vs. Minny over nearly 14 innings. Blackburn has allowed 3 ERs in his last 13 innings vs. Chicago. I give the edge to Danks who is in the zone right now pitching 7+ innings in his last 5 starts. Sox are 6-3 in Danks last 9 outings. Chicago 5-3.
$300 Florida/Arizona UNDER 8 (Nolasco/Haren)
Nolasco and Haren will both keep this one under the total. Nolasco is on fire of late as are the Marlins in his recent 5 outings. Florida is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he has gone 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA over his last 3. Opponents have only combined for 11 runs over his last 6 outings. Nolasco and the fish are 4-0 in his 4 previous outings against Arz. He allowed just 4 ERs in his 3 outings last season over a span of over 22 innings. All three of those outings went under the total. Haren has been anything but a slouch recently, as he has gone 2-1 in his last 3, with a 1.80 ERA. He has a 1.95 ERA at home. Haren has allowed 2 ERs or less in his last 8 starts, one of the longest streaks in the bigs right now. Last season he allowed 4 ERs over 2 outings vs. Fla. Look for 5 runs max in this one.
$200 Boston -1.5(-115)
(Bannister/Lester)
Red Sox are 4-2 after an opening series loss at home in gm 2. They send Lester to face Bannister. The Red Sox should bounce back after the loss last night but it seems like they are on a downswing as far as runs go. They are only 5-5 in their last 10. The good thing is their pitching has been great of late. Lester is at the top of that list going 2-0 in his last 3 with a 1.83 ERA. Boston has won 6 of his last 7 outings. Bannister and the Royals are complete opposites, losing 6 of his last 8 starts. The Sox have scored 23 runs in his previous 3 outings against them while KC was shutout last time they faced Lester. Last year, Lester went the distance allowing just 2 walks. A no-hit complete game. Royals should get a beat down after last night. Boston 7-1.
Going against you on with Twins and I like Boston as well. Hard not to like the Yanks with a road win tonight giving them 9 straight on the road, first time since 98?
Enjoy your write-ups, hopefully it will swing around to plus before foots.
:mj06:
Enjoy your write-ups, hopefully it will swing around to plus before foots.
:mj06:
Really been turning it around after a rough middle since you started.... Last time I checked in you were down twice as much and it looks like a nice 3 or 4 days in a row!!! Keep up the grind, you got it going now!
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 1-4-1, -16.8 units
Currently: -59.40 units
Units remaining: 259.40
27-18-2, +60.60 units in first 10 days of July
Totals run of 20-12-3 last 35
7/11/09
$300 Atlanta/Colorado UNDER 9.5
Jair Jurrjens has looked great of late. Marquis has looked even better recently. This sets up for a low scoring game following Saturday's 4-1 final. All signs point to another under here, as both bullpens have looked sound, as has the starting pitching for the most part on both sides. Both teams are hot and have split the first two games.
Jurrjens actually shows the better ERA and shows a better road ERA, compared to his home number. The Braves have won his last 3 outings against Colorado. Braves outscored Colorado 26-10 in his four outings against them, and 10-5 in Colorado. Jurrjens allowed just 1 ER over 7 innings in his start at home vs. Rockies this season and has had 2 starts in Colorado, both last year. One was a 4 ER performance over 7 innings, and the other was 0 ER's in 7 and 2/3 innings. Both went under the total.
Jason Marquis takes the home hill for Colorado, and he has dominated Atlanta in his last couple. He allowed just 1 ER in this year's meeting going 8 innings. He also only allowed 2 ER's as a Cub last season vs. this ball club. His former team lost both games he has pitched against them over the last 2 seasons. Colorado has won 8 of his last 10 starts, and he has been pretty dominant at home. In his last outing he shut down the Nats over 8 innings of scoreless baseball. Marquis has only allowed 4 ER's in his last 4 at home with the opposition averaging less than 2 runs per contest. Marquis has not allowed a run over his last 2 full games pitched (17 innings). Look for him to continue his dominance in addition to Jurrjens pitching well also. This one should see at most 5 runs scored.
$300 Oakland/Tampa Bay OVER (Will go by closing line at majority of books)
$200 each:
Texas/Seattle OVER 8
Cincy/NY Mets OVER 7.5
NY Mets -130
Yesterday: 1-4-1, -16.8 units
Currently: -59.40 units
Units remaining: 259.40
27-18-2, +60.60 units in first 10 days of July
Totals run of 20-12-3 last 35
7/11/09
$300 Atlanta/Colorado UNDER 9.5
Jair Jurrjens has looked great of late. Marquis has looked even better recently. This sets up for a low scoring game following Saturday's 4-1 final. All signs point to another under here, as both bullpens have looked sound, as has the starting pitching for the most part on both sides. Both teams are hot and have split the first two games.
Jurrjens actually shows the better ERA and shows a better road ERA, compared to his home number. The Braves have won his last 3 outings against Colorado. Braves outscored Colorado 26-10 in his four outings against them, and 10-5 in Colorado. Jurrjens allowed just 1 ER over 7 innings in his start at home vs. Rockies this season and has had 2 starts in Colorado, both last year. One was a 4 ER performance over 7 innings, and the other was 0 ER's in 7 and 2/3 innings. Both went under the total.
Jason Marquis takes the home hill for Colorado, and he has dominated Atlanta in his last couple. He allowed just 1 ER in this year's meeting going 8 innings. He also only allowed 2 ER's as a Cub last season vs. this ball club. His former team lost both games he has pitched against them over the last 2 seasons. Colorado has won 8 of his last 10 starts, and he has been pretty dominant at home. In his last outing he shut down the Nats over 8 innings of scoreless baseball. Marquis has only allowed 4 ER's in his last 4 at home with the opposition averaging less than 2 runs per contest. Marquis has not allowed a run over his last 2 full games pitched (17 innings). Look for him to continue his dominance in addition to Jurrjens pitching well also. This one should see at most 5 runs scored.
$300 Oakland/Tampa Bay OVER (Will go by closing line at majority of books)
$200 each:
Texas/Seattle OVER 8
Cincy/NY Mets OVER 7.5
NY Mets -130
