Play against bad teams - Part III

[BASON]

Record 4-1-1

Actually had a very hard time narrowing the picks down to 3 this week, but the winners are:

MD-35
TCU-14
Akron-15.5

Maryland and TCU have already gotten much discussion. This MD team is ready to roll and EMU is terrible. They can not stop the run. I was at the MD game last week and they could have won by 50 if their receivers could catch in the first half. They will dominate and have this covered at the half.

Not much else to say about AZ, except they are one pathetic team. They do not want to play for Mackovic and I can not see them caring about this non-conference game. TCU playing for respect and recognition, they will win by 24.

Finally, Buffalo is the worst team in Division I football, they are not a top 50 Div I-AA team. Akron is no juggernaut but they will take the opportunity to run it up when they can. Akron by 21.

Others in the running were N. Texas-17 and Navy+2. Staying away from a play against Army this week, I have a feeling they will keep it close.

I am definitely playing N. TX, which is a play against LA-Lafayette. Also like Kansas+10.5 this week.

Good Luck!

 

[gardenweasel]

they make sense

they make sense

to me....i was kinda ogling kansas myself.......i think i needed a push.....i`ll buy the half and take the 11....

good post.....even if you are from d.c.....(just kidding )

 

[AR182]

imo, as of now n. texas is a very good bet.

bason,

you have an interesting theory that i will start paying attention to.


good luck this weekend

 

[gridman]

I am licking my chops at Nevada over a terrible SMU. Nevada at home and should pound a clueless SMU. Also, Reno is in high altitude country. SMU will be sucking gas come the 2nd half. All over this game!

GM

 

[Bigdog4242]

Bason,
This is a great theory and I used it last year and came out ahead 20 Units. The teams I picked last year were mainly Kansas, UTEP and who ever Boise St. played.

This year I have been playing against SMU, AZ, and UTEP FH. I will be playing against Lafayette the rest of the year also. I went to the game this past weekend and they are horrible. There were hole my grandma could have walked through for ten yards and there Off. line just blows!! The only one I will probably not play against this week is AZ, TCU just scares me right now.

GL and nice write up!!

Bigdog

 

[BASON]

Thanks guys.

Grid - agree about SMU, they are bad

Weasel - DC is not such a bad place

Bigdog makes a good point that I should have mentioned before. Playing the first half has also been a very good angle in going against these bad teams, especially when they are playing good teams.

Texas, MN and UConn were all very good examples last week. All three were covering the game spread at halftime with very little scoring in the second half.

Personally I think you will see the halftime lines starting to lean more heaviliy to the favorites as people catch on. Most people do not play first half lines, but I am a believer.

All three of this weeks posted plays will be strong first half plays.

 

[Bigdog4242]

Bason,

Also on the FHs I feel a lot more comfortable playing the FH in a huge home favorite rather than playing the game just because of the back door theory with the scrubs giving up some late TDs perfect example was OK vs. Fresno St.. For huge favorites on the road I sometimes play both to double dip.

Bigdog

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff Bason!

HORNS

 

[BASON]

Thanks Horns!

Thinking of making a small play on VA Tech since this line has come down to under 21. I have been a huge UCONN fan and bettor, but they are in trouble this week. They will not be able to stop Tech. I really like an over in this game once a total is posted.