Playing on road favorites??

[Trizzle]

I have a sincere question for the group. After 20+ years of being both a player and a book, one of my "never" rules is to never play on a road favorite in conference play. I learned this lesson the hard way, through many losses.

I don't always play the home dog, and in most times where a road team is laying points, I will pass.

However, after reading on this site for a good while, I see some the best cappers regularly laying points on the road, sometimes as "big" plays. Am I just old fashioned? Has the road favorite play made money over the years, or of late?? I am thinking I need to take another look at this. Thanks to all and GL!!

 

[johnnyb.]

great observation, noticed myself that road fav of 6 or more points is better than home dog in non-conference. inconference is still debatable...

 

[Bill]

I still think interconference road favs are a LOSING proposition. Also agree it does not mean you play the dog everytime but look for good situations: favs looking forward to "more important game", revenge motives, FREE THROW SHOOTING, ability to slow the game down, "something to prove" motivation, etc.

JMO
Bill

 

[bryanz]

all fav 48% / all dog 52% / away fav 51%/ away dog 53%/ home fav 47% / home dog 49% / ...............

 

[Trizzle]

Agree on the non-conf road fav's as a better proposition. Bryanz, thanks for the numbers. Are those historical for all season? Any way to separate the non-conf from the conference play?

 

[bryanz]

that all games this year so far.think the #'s look like these do at the end of most seasons. don't have the conference #'s...

 

[Bill]

Bryanz, are these cover numbers? Can (would) you share your source?

Thanks,
Bill

 

[bryanz]

cant spell

cant spell

these are not cover #'s. I made a mistake, these are for the last 30 days. if you go back 60 or 90 days the #' may change by 1% to 3 %. I have noticed in the past 5yrs that all the #'s are high 40's to low 50's just like these.....

 

[Bill]

Thanks,
bil