I still haven't decided if I will bet the playoffs this season but right now I am leaning against it. I did do well the past two seasons because a few teams that I happened to be high on, St. Louis in 2001 and Carolina and San Jose in 2002, had good runs.
I think most guys in this forum know what they are doing but if there are any novices out there here is the advice I would offer.
-Bet flat on the big faves. It can be tough to only win 0.4 units and the like but if you lay 2.5 units time and time again on faves you can get killed, especially in the postseason.
-Only bet dogs on series bets. The NHL seems to be the most unpredictable of all sports in the postseason as 7's and 8's seem to post at least one series win every season. Teams like Anahiem, St. Louis, New York, Boston and Minnesota all are dogs with pretty nice prices that could be looked at. I could see any one of those teams knocking off a favored team.
-Bet the team throughout the series if the price is right. There is probably no value in betting, say, Detroit to beat Anaheim in every or even any game because the public so strongly supports the Wings. A six game series, or perhaps even a five game series, will sap any value out of betting the Wings in every game of the series. If you see a mismatch in a more closely regarded series, a good strategy can be to bet the team in every game of that series. In 2001 I bet St. Louis in every game vs. San Jose and vs. Dallas (I chickened out vs. the Avs after 2 losses). Last season I bet San Jose every game vs. Phoenix and Colorado and Carolina every game of the postseason until they won the east (I had nowhere near enough balls to bet them vs. Detroit). This season things look tougher as there isn't a strong fave matchup at likely reasonable prices like San Jose vs. Phoenix last season. The best I can come up with is possibly trying Philly in all four vs. Toronto, as I could see a short series in that matchup.
-Look at -1 1/2 in some games with shorter lines. -1 1/2 on large faves often leaves prices too small to give value but the +200 and above prices on smaller faves -1 1/2 may be strong. In my opinion this especially applies to deep, strongly defensive teams who forecheck well because often they are able to protect 1 goal leads and cash in on empty netters.
With all of this I must say that this NHL season has been a disappointment for me, so do the work yourself if you are going to follow any of this advice. My last word on the topic would be that everyone gets excited for the playoffs, maybe too excited. If you had a great regular season, don't blow it on the playoffs and if you had a poor regular season, don't blow an unrecoverable hole in your bankroll trying to catch up in the postseason.
-Nick
I think most guys in this forum know what they are doing but if there are any novices out there here is the advice I would offer.
-Bet flat on the big faves. It can be tough to only win 0.4 units and the like but if you lay 2.5 units time and time again on faves you can get killed, especially in the postseason.
-Only bet dogs on series bets. The NHL seems to be the most unpredictable of all sports in the postseason as 7's and 8's seem to post at least one series win every season. Teams like Anahiem, St. Louis, New York, Boston and Minnesota all are dogs with pretty nice prices that could be looked at. I could see any one of those teams knocking off a favored team.
-Bet the team throughout the series if the price is right. There is probably no value in betting, say, Detroit to beat Anaheim in every or even any game because the public so strongly supports the Wings. A six game series, or perhaps even a five game series, will sap any value out of betting the Wings in every game of the series. If you see a mismatch in a more closely regarded series, a good strategy can be to bet the team in every game of that series. In 2001 I bet St. Louis in every game vs. San Jose and vs. Dallas (I chickened out vs. the Avs after 2 losses). Last season I bet San Jose every game vs. Phoenix and Colorado and Carolina every game of the postseason until they won the east (I had nowhere near enough balls to bet them vs. Detroit). This season things look tougher as there isn't a strong fave matchup at likely reasonable prices like San Jose vs. Phoenix last season. The best I can come up with is possibly trying Philly in all four vs. Toronto, as I could see a short series in that matchup.
-Look at -1 1/2 in some games with shorter lines. -1 1/2 on large faves often leaves prices too small to give value but the +200 and above prices on smaller faves -1 1/2 may be strong. In my opinion this especially applies to deep, strongly defensive teams who forecheck well because often they are able to protect 1 goal leads and cash in on empty netters.
With all of this I must say that this NHL season has been a disappointment for me, so do the work yourself if you are going to follow any of this advice. My last word on the topic would be that everyone gets excited for the playoffs, maybe too excited. If you had a great regular season, don't blow it on the playoffs and if you had a poor regular season, don't blow an unrecoverable hole in your bankroll trying to catch up in the postseason.
-Nick
