Playoff Picks: Wire to Wire

Dizzayton

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I've discussed these games in other threads, and now I am going to put what I actually bet in this thread.

St. Louis @ Seattle
SCREW IT! I've DECIDED TO BITE ON THE RAMS. THEY HAVE BIG PLAY OFFENSE AND BOT DEFENSES STINK
TAKING Rams +4 FOR $200.

NYJ @ SD CHARGERS
Chargers are a very good team. Jets are a good team as well. SD can stop the run but not the pass. Pennington has been ripped in the media, but today he will have time to throw the ball as SD has little pass rush. SD is 1-4 against playoff teams, the one win being by 3 at home against Denver. Jets take care of the ball fairly well. Chargers a Brees are untested. 7 points is a nice cushion in this contest. The backdoor should be wide open. This game should be very tight. The Jets D will not get smoked.
TAKING NY JETS +7 FOR $200

Good luck. See you Sunday.
 
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ScreaminPain

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As you may have read in my thread, I'm butting heads with you on SD/Jets game but:

The rain and potentially muddy field makes this more interesting. The receivers know their routes and the corners have to adjust....on a muddy field this will lead to some slips and falls. If it continues to rain, the game could possibly be decided by something like a missed coverage....

I stll like the Chargers to score and I don't like the Jets chances of putting up too many points. Taking the 7 may be the difference if these teams decide to pound the line, but the Chargers have more ammo and should use it....
 

Dizzayton

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2005 Playoff Record 2-0 +$400

Game 1
Denver @ Colts

Believe me, I respect the Colt Offense as much as the next guy, but I have a hard time laying 10 in this spot.

Colts have won 4 of their 8 home games by more than 10 points. All four of those games were against some of the worst pass defenses in the league. GB, OAK, HOU and TENN. The other 4 home games consisted of a 3 point loss to Jax, 3 point win vs. Minny, 3 point win against SD and an impressive 10 point win against the Ravens (10th rated Pass D in the league).

Bottomline: 2 reasons why I am taking the Broncos. Number one, they have a strong defense that is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed and 9th in scoring D, and Indy has a horrible defense that is 29th in total yards allowed and they are laying 10. REASON NUMBER ONE IS THAT DENVER WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THE BALL FAIRLY EASILY THIS GAME AND THEY ARE GETTING 10.

I was thinking about this being the same scenario as last year so I thought to myself what are the differences from 2003-2004. The COLTS DEFENSE GOT WORSE IN 2004!. They were 11th in TOTAL DEFENSE LAST YEAR!!!!!!!
REASON NUMBER 2 FOR TAKING THE BRONCOS IS THAT THE COLTS DEFENSE HAS GOTTEN WORSE AND DENVER's HAS IMPROVED going from 12th against the PASS in 2003 to 6th against the pass in 2004. The additions of Bailey and Lynch should help as I look for the secondary to be physical with indy wr's all game.

TAKING DENVER +10 for $200.

Good luck and be back later for game 2.
 

Dizzayton

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Playoffs 2-1 +180


Taking the underdog Vikings + 6.5 for $200.

It will be a very entertaining game. Good luck.
 

Dizzayton

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Playoff Record 3-1 +380

I'll take it. Time to up the bets next weekend. There is only 7 more games to bet for me as I usually take a break after the super bowl. So I will see if I can piss away all the money I made this year, or possibly turn it in to a big pile of money. Only time will tell. Should be interesting to see what happens.

Thoughts on the remaining clubs.

NFC
Philly- the 2 week vacation resulting in 2 losses doesn't really bother me. Their lack of offense does. In my opinion, McNabb has more pressure on him then any other player in the league. I also feel like if Minny gets out to a lead, the pressure may get to philly.

Minnesota- they played some inspired defense today, and that Burelson continues to impress me. They have a dangerous offense and I expect the line to continue to drop as the public likely hammers this team

St louis- Yes, their offense is big time. Martz even called a decent game on Saturday. I can picture the fat grin on his fat face as Minny beat GB, so the Rams can return to a dome to play an Atlanta team that I am sure the Rams believe they can beat. The one thing that scares me is the Atl rush attack and how shitty the Rams Defense looked at the end of the Seattle game. I am not giving the Rams too much credit for beating seattle shithawks.

Atl- It is time to see if this team is in the pretender category. I have a hunch that they are. There offense looks horrible at times, but against St louis they should not have trouble moving the ball. It will be interesting to see if their defense can stop the air attack of Bulger and Co. I am a fan of the Atl defense, and I like their running game. Their passing game is suspect and it looks as though their pass defense is as well. Not a lot of quality wins for them this season either.

AFC

Indy- Another impressive performance by Manning and co. I was frustrated that I bet against them vs. Denver, but I decided to go all dogs, and you live and you learn I guess. My gut feeling is that this team is on a mission. They believe they can beat NE in their house, but will the demons continue to haunt them. It could develop into a Yankee stadium type curse at Foxboro

NE- IF my memory serves me right, NE has gone undefeated at home the past 2 seasons including 2 playoff victories. My memory also tells me the Colts had them beat in Week 1, but fumbled the game away. That was week one though. Going to war with Manning and the Colts without Ty Law does not bode well. This game will certainly be extremely tight and the Colts are the play.

Jets- Great win vs. the Chargers, but I never thought the Chargers were that good anyway to be honest. People may think the Jets are some kind of sleeper team, but I am not one of them. There offense is no impressive, and I am not sure they have enough playmakers to compete with Pitt.

Pitt-In my opinion, the AFC championship game will go through PITT. They are too good to let the Jets get to them. The win streak they are on is amazing, and it is not like Kordell Stewart is their QB like the year when they lost in a similar situation to the Pats in the title game as a 8-10 point favorite. All signs point to Steeler dominance in the first round. I just don't see the Jets doing much of anything on offense.

Should be fun (but not easy) trying to pick out the winners this week.
 

Soko

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4-0 start to the playoffs so its only down hill from here unfortunatley. Some really nice touches too, backed the Jets outright against the Bolts and bit on the Rams outright versus Seattle as well. I nearly started laughing when I backed cash on Manning to throw for 300 yards tonight........ just give me the money!!! dance1


However next week looks far more diificult to predict with the bye week and surprise performances and dominating performances by Minny and Indy. Atl will beat the Rams but that spread will need to come down before I touch it. Pittsburgh and Jets already has the classic look of an under about it but I'm going to be patient and hope a couple of lines come in before I bite.
 

Dizzayton

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The over in the Rams/ATL game looks too good, which obviously makes me scratch my head. I know the Falcons will run the hell out of the ball, but a lot of those runs will likely be long ones. And you know Martz will be airing it out constantly. How can it be under 50?
 

Dizzayton

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I've only decided one play so far and it is set in stone.

Colts for $500

My standard bet is $100 in the regular season so that will give you an idea of how strongly I feel about the game. I took NE last year and won, and I took them again in Week 1 this season and pushed. The time is right for the Colts.

First of all, the Pats secondary is banged up. You can say what you want about the master Belicheck, but you need your top soldiers when you are going to war with Manning. Ty Law put together the best single game performance by a corner I have ever season in last year's victory in the cold.

Manning is on top of his game even more so than last year. He has the confidence and the work ethic it takes to overcome any obstacle. He knows what this game means and he has done everything possible to prepare for it. I honestly think he lights up the Pats defense.

A major reason I am betting the Colts is because of what I have seen this season and throughout the playoffs thus far with defense holding calls. The Refs will continue to call the game close and look for the Pats secondary to get flagged constantly as they try to keep up with the Colts burners. This will throw the Pats off big time as they will give up at least 3-5 defensive holding calls in my estimation. There is no doubt about it that the Refs are calling the corners for bullshit penalties and barely giving them a chance. That may be the storyline of this game, besides Manning lighting it up of course.

So as of now, I've decided to take the Colts for a nickel, I don't bet on line so I will probably get a crap line from my guy on Sunday of like 1 or something, but it won't matter. I am still trying to come up with my other plays, but it is tough, especially the Jets/Steelers game.
 
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Dizzayton

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Saturday

Saturday

Playoffs 3-1 +380

Pittsburgh -9 - $300- I like Pitt big time here. Jets are a solid team but I see Pitt winning this game by 10-14. 2 main reasons for the bet are that Plaxico in the lineup gives the Steelers an average margin of victory of 12.5 and without him it is 5.5. Plaxico is good for a touchdown and he makes this offense way better. The other reason is that 15-1 teams are very rare in this league. This is only the 4th time it has ever happened. And in the 3 previous divisional playoffs all three put up DD victories. Take it for what it is worth.

Rams +7- $300 I don't like playing totals so I will simply play the side in this one. I like the points here as I think the Rams have really turned the corner with big wins over the Jets and Hawks. The Falcons are capable of covering the game, but they are far too inconsistent for me to lay the 7. This should be interesting and I feel like the Rams have a shot at a SU win. Good luck fellas.

And I am starting to consider betting NE. I have not decided yet. I am going to ask every person I talk to about the game, and the person who comes up with the most logical compelling reason will determine who I play.
 

Dizzayton

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I have been back and forth all week on the Indy/NE game, so what I mean is that I am still trying to figure out my play. I like to listen to what other people say before making my final decision.

I think it is natural to second guess bets.

But one thing I do know is that when in doubt go with your first choice.

I will make my final play on Sunday. I bet through a bookie so I don't place my bets until game time.

I still like Indy for $500 as of now.

Saturday I have decided on the above $300 plays. Good luck to everyone.
 

trolln4walii

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GL this week Dizz. Like my doggies again this week so I'm with you on the Rams. Taking the Jets and Vikings too. Only fav I like is the Patriots. Hate being on the opposite side of your big wager but I'm going with coach, home field, trends, weather, defense (scary without Law) and everything else that goes with New England. Bottom line, I'll take a Belichick coached team over a Dungee led squad every chance I get. :)
 

Dizzayton

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Am I missing something?

Because I can't understand why so many people are coming out saying the Falcons are going to spank the Rams. I do not see it one bit. Has anyone been watching the Falcons play this year? They are overrated. Good luck.
 

Englishman

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Completely agree on the Falcons. I think Rams ML play should be seriously considered here. Why not? I think the Rams score plenty of points here.

GL (except on The Steelers, opposite side there).
 
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