PLAYOFF THREAD 2006-YEAR OF COLTS

[Dizzayton]

I'll start this thread by saying the Colts will win it all. Not a very original prediction, but I think it will happen. And keep in mind that I am a guy that likes to root for the underdog.

WEEK 1 WILDCARD-Analysis of all 4 games

Wash@Tampa-PASS ON THE GAME- I've been to several Tampa games this year and they aren't bad at all. They have a tough defense and Sims can make throws at time. With that said, this defense is nowhere near it was the Superbowl year and this team is very inconsistent. I am not sold on the Skins either and think Tampa could easily win, but I do not feel confident to bet this game one way or the other. It truly could go either way. Redskins key injuries to secondary and banged up Brunell could be enough to put Tampa over the top. NO BET FOR ME.

Jax@NE- TOOK THE JAGS +8-This line will not go up any higher. This is a key example of perception vs. reality game. The perception is NE is a dynasty that will not lose this game at home and Jax has no chance. The reality is that they are not as good as last year, and MORE IMPORTANTLY EVEN IF THEY ARE AS GOOD AS LAST YEAR AND GO ON TO WIN THE SB THEY DO NOT BLOW TEAMS OUT-This game reminds me alot of the PATS vs. Tenn playoff game from a few years back when McNAir and Titans cover the 6 point spread but lost. NE may cover this spread, but it will take an exceptional performance to cover 8 against a solid Jax Defense considering NE is slightly overrated this year and the line is inflated as well. BET JAX +8

CAROLINA@NYG-PASS ON THIS GAME-I am not betting this game either. I would like to take Carolina but I have a feeling the Giants will show up because they are at home and can run the ball and pass rush Delholme. Carolina is not the same team that went to the SB, but they are still tough against the run. I am not betting this game but will be rooting for Carolina. Giants will win if Manning plays well, but will he play well??? NO BET

PITT@CINCY-TOOK PITT -3-this will likely be a very popular play and rightfully so. Cincy has no defense. No defense in playoffs equals an early exit. Pitt is looked bad at times this year but Big Ben, Bus, Parker, Ward, Polamolu, Porter, and other will make the plays and win this one by 7-10. Pitt has great run game and much better Defense. I am a Bills fan, and the Bills offense sucked this year but managed to smoke Cincy in a meaningful game. Some may say that doesn't mean much, but to me it means everything and combine that with the fact that Pitt is more experienced and it is a strong play. BET PITTSBURGH -3.

No need to bet every game. Only taking the ones I like this year.

RECAP-

Wildcard Week 1-2006

BET JAX +8 over NE

BET PITT -3 over Cincy

 

[thom24ad]

good to see you back on the forum, good luck dizzy!

 

[Juu3]

didn't know you were gone but peep this--

Pitt wins it all
Redskins in round one +2.5
Carolina against Seattle for the NFC

 

[AR182]

nice write-ups, but i don't see why jax. is such a popular pick.....they'll be starting a rusty qb & in their last 10 games, jax has only played 1 winning team.....i may wrong but i don't see jax. at all.

good luck

 

[thom24ad]

nice write-ups, but i don't see why jax. is such a popular pick.....they'll be starting a rusty qb & in their last 10 games, jax has only played 1 winning team.....i may wrong but i don't see jax. at all.

good luck

I don't get it either, jax just seems very unimpressive to me

 

[soul train]

I like the Jags myself..GL

 

[Dizzayton]

May buy back the Pitt play. We will see... I will post on Saturday if I do. The homedog trends scare me a little.

 

[Dizzayton]

I was wrong about NE, and I will be the first to admit it. My plays split so I am 1-1 for the playoffs. Money to burn after Rose Bowl, and I will go out swinging one way or the other. I gamble to win and for entertainment, so I will bet bigger and bigger each round and will put it all on the Super Bowl. I know that's not good money management but it is fun as hell.

PLAYOFF PICKS 1-1

SAT GAMES:

Washington at Seattle-BET WASHINGTON +9-I know divisional home teams have had success over the years, but I don't think that necessarily applies this year. I have learned over the past 5 years or so that homefield avantage is not as important as defense in the playoffs. With that said, Washington has the better defense than Seattle. I have made future bets on 3 of the 4 remaining NFC teams to win the NFC championship-with the biggest bet being on the Bears-and Seattle is the team that I didn't bet. I think they are overrated-plain and simple. If they make the superbowl I will be shocked. Even if they get by Wash, the winner of chicago/carolina will beat them on their home turf. Washington is somewhat hot and I think they can slow down Seattle offense and hang tight. Gibbs will have the troops ready and Brunell will not make stupid turnovers. Portis and Betts will pound the ball, Cooley will make key catches and Moss will be the gamebreaker as usual. Would not be shocked to see Wash win outright. Is Seattle really that good on defense as everyone thinks....NO NO NO. This is the same team that has been horrible on defense for as long as I can remember. Last year they were a joke. They are improved , but not enough to dominate a physical Washington team. TAKE WASH +9

DENVER @ NE-BET NEW ENGLAND +3-(I bought it to 3.5) NE WILL SLOW DOWN DENVER RUNNING GAME and force Plummer to beat them. Belicheck has been doing this forever. taking a team's strength away and make them beat you somehow else. Belicheck will take away the running game and force plummer to come up big and he will throw picks. Shanahan does not have the creativity to outthink Belichecks schemes. He is incredibly conservative and will stick to the run. The Champs will be able to slow down the run and take the crowd out of it with HUGE PASSING PLAYS. Despite Champ Bailey and Lynch in secondary, Denver gives up lots of big passing plays. NE rather comfortably. 28-17-TAKE NE +3

 

[Dice34]

Like the Wash play....need to look at the NE-Den game a little more

 

[Livin' Large]

Remember, no 5 or 6 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl. If Seattle plays Carolina in the NFC Championship game, you would be defying major odds by playing Carolina. Good luck!

 

[the_fix_is_on]

Of the 15 years that they've had 6 seeds, I don't think the NFC has had this much parity. Whoever wants it bad enough, and gets the ball bouncing their way can take it all. I don't see any team with a decided edge. . . regardless of their seeding.

 

[Livin' Large]

Fix, I totally agree with you, the NFC is wide open this year. The reason no 5 or 6 seed has ever advanced to the Super Bowl, however, has nothing to do with a lack of parity over the last 15 years. It has everything to do with lower seeded teams not being able to win three straight road games. The travel is grueling enough, not to mention the fact these teams are facing an opponent in the Championship game which has played one fewer game. Mental and physical rest makes a huge difference!

 

[the_fix_is_on]

I'm Nutz, I mean Livin' Large,
You're right about the home/away advantage. 3 straight is pushing the limit. But if there was any year that trend might end it's this year. Being a 'Skins fan, I'm thinking they've got a shot. I also like Carolina's chances. I'm not sold on Da Bears, or the Seahawks. I'm just glad the Giants got their ticket punched early. Them having an extra home game just irked me. :wtf:

 

[thom24ad]

I was wrong about NE, and I will be the first to admit it. My plays split so I am 1-1 for the playoffs. Money to burn after Rose Bowl, and I will go out swinging one way or the other. I gamble to win and for entertainment, so I will bet bigger and bigger each round and will put it all on the Super Bowl. I know that's not good money management but it is fun as hell.

PLAYOFF PICKS 1-1

SAT GAMES:

Washington at Seattle-BET WASHINGTON +9-I know divisional home teams have had success over the years, but I don't think that necessarily applies this year. I have learned over the past 5 years or so that homefield avantage is not as important as defense in the playoffs. With that said, Washington has the better defense than Seattle. I have made future bets on 3 of the 4 remaining NFC teams to win the NFC championship-with the biggest bet being on the Bears-and Seattle is the team that I didn't bet. I think they are overrated-plain and simple. If they make the superbowl I will be shocked. Even if they get by Wash, the winner of chicago/carolina will beat them on their home turf. Washington is somewhat hot and I think they can slow down Seattle offense and hang tight. Gibbs will have the troops ready and Brunell will not make stupid turnovers. Portis and Betts will pound the ball, Cooley will make key catches and Moss will be the gamebreaker as usual. Would not be shocked to see Wash win outright. Is Seattle really that good on defense as everyone thinks....NO NO NO. This is the same team that has been horrible on defense for as long as I can remember. Last year they were a joke. They are improved , but not enough to dominate a physical Washington team. TAKE WASH +9

DENVER @ NE-BET NEW ENGLAND +3-(I bought it to 3.5) NE WILL SLOW DOWN DENVER RUNNING GAME and force Plummer to beat them. Belicheck has been doing this forever. taking a team's strength away and make them beat you somehow else. Belicheck will take away the running game and force plummer to come up big and he will throw picks. Shanahan does not have the creativity to outthink Belichecks schemes. He is incredibly conservative and will stick to the run. The Champs will be able to slow down the run and take the crowd out of it with HUGE PASSING PLAYS. Despite Champ Bailey and Lynch in secondary, Denver gives up lots of big passing plays. NE rather comfortably. 28-17-TAKE NE +3

we are on opposite sides this week my friend...Your going to be pissed come Sunday getting burned by these two...NE should have been your play last week instead of this week...Jaxs was a givin win in foxborro but this team will struggle on the road...Denver is the better team

 

[Dizzayton]

No need to quote my whole page Thom.

 

[thom24ad]

No need to quote my whole page Thom.

whats it matter...did you find yourself reading over your own quote...

 

[Dizzayton]

It makes it long as hell and a hassle to scroll all the time whatever. Keep tailin Clem, it's paid off so far, but I like Skins and Pats. You think Belicheck won't have a plan to shut down denver's run.....you're nutz, and you think Plummer will be able to beat them throwing...ha. I have watched 2 Broncos games where they looked like shit. The KC game and Dallas game.

 

[Dizzayton]

Sunday Picks

Sunday Picks

Pitt at Indy - TAKE INDY -9.5. I like INDY to win this one pretty easily. Pitt's defense is not as tough as it used to be, especially on the turf. I think Pitt gets behind early and will be forced to abandon the run. Indy will be focused for this game and I think they will be unstoppable on offense. Like I said, Pitts defense has not impressed me the last couple months. Yes, they are ranked highly on D, but so was Denver last year when the Colts blew their doors off. BET COLTS -9.5.

Carolina @Chicago- TAKE CAROLINA +3.5- I agree with most on this site that the PAnther will win this outright. I also agree with Clem that if Bears somehow win it will be by a field goal. BEars are definitely beatable despite the great D. I don't trust Grossman at all over Delholme, and the way Muhammed has played this season I do not think he will step up and make big plays. The difference in this game will be turnovers, obviously. And the Bears will need a defensive touchdown to win, otherwise Carolina will control the game and win with a dominant defensive performance. Would not be surprised if this Carolina D completely shuts down Bears and surprises some people by being the best defense on the field. TAKE PANTHERS (BUY up to 3.5)

RECAP OF DIVISIONAL PLAYS

BET WASHINGTON +9

BET NE PATS BUY UP TO +3.5

BET INDY -9.5

BET CAROLINA BUY UP TO +3.5

 

[thom24ad]

It makes it long as hell and a hassle to scroll all the time whatever. Keep tailin Clem, it's paid off so far, but I like Skins and Pats. You think Belicheck won't have a plan to shut down denver's run.....you're nutz, and you think Plummer will be able to beat them throwing...ha. I have watched 2 Broncos games where they looked like shit. The KC game and Dallas game.

I had my own picks last week except for the under in TB/Wash but this week I will be tailing Clem this week cause I agree with his post and not mentions ARs thread is creditable as well...no I don't think Plummer will beat them with his arm...he will not have too...NE is going to get the ball rammed down their throats with the running game...KC they lost by four which was only one of their three losses all season and they beat Dallas...their opposing team total record is 156-128 and they only had three losses this seasons...they have also beaten three playoff teams and only lost to NY by a point...This is a very good football team...It is tough to argue against a team that has won 10 straight and 3 SBs...but all things come to an end and NE is overmatched this weekend...Denver won't have any problem covering the 7...NE is going down in flames this weekend and their rein is over...I figured there would people on NE after last weeks big win...but I am telling you this team is fools gold this week...their not as good as people think

P.S. sorry for the extra half second it took you to scroll down the thread