Playoffs - Road to Miami XLIV

lostinamerica

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Green Bay(+125ML) over Arizona (2 Biscuits) ** Top Play **
- -

Dallas(-3)(-135) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

I can't figure how thegreek.com has both NFC games on Saturday, which would leave Fox without a game next weekend.

GL
 

MadJack

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Green Bay(+125ML) over Arizona (2 Biscuits) ** Top Play **
- -

Dallas(-3)(-135) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

I can't figure how thegreek.com has both NFC games on Saturday, which would leave Fox without a game next weekend.

GL
Day and time has not been determined yet.
 

Morris

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Above the Clouds....
There has been a contract dispute with the cable cos. Fox was one to be dropped by Time Warner. Don't know if this has anything to do with it. I do know they settled short term. :shrug:
 

lostinamerica

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McCarthy Steps on the Gas (1/3/10):
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/80484832.html


There is no manual to consult when it comes to playing out the season with a playoff berth in hand and nothing much to gain.

Mike McCarthy went with a gut feeling.

As he headed into what was essentially a meaningless game against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers coach took stock of the makeup of his team, the road it has traveled to get here and the health of his players and kept coming to the same conclusion.

Let the train roll on.

"I'm not going to stand here and act like I have all of the answers," McCarthy said after his team disposed of the Cardinals, 33-7, to finish 11-5. "But I have the pulse of my football team. Our football team needed to stay on course. We set a path.

"We had some bumps in the road at 4-4. We continued to improve each week and won some football games along the way. I thought it was important to take this last opportunity to make sure that we were playing the best we possibly could coming out of the regular season."

McCarthy's team will turn around and play the Cardinals again at 3:40 p.m. Sunday in the first game of a wild-card doubleheader. The networks deemed Philadelphia-Dallas more worthy of prime-time than Packers-Cardinals, so despite reports the Packers would play Saturday, they'll get a full week to prepare for the first round.

Officially, the Packers are seeded fifth in the NFC, which pits them against the No. 4, which became the Cardinals when Minnesota and Dallas both won. The only way the Packers could host a playoff game would be to face the No. 6-seeded Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Anticipating a Saturday matchup, McCarthy made plans to give the players off Monday and hold practice Tuesday, figuring that if they ended up getting a Sunday game he could lighten the workday and proceed with a normal Sunday schedule thereafter.

McCarthy seemed to like the idea of playing Saturday - "You can only go back and look at the (video) cut-ups so long," he said - but this will allow him to maintain a regular schedule for the week, something he credits for the Packers winning five games on the road this year.

McCarthy's decision to play his starters most of the way - quarterback Aaron Rodgers played his last snap with 4:16 left in the third quarter and the Packers ahead, 33-0 - was similar to New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin's plan in 2007. The Giants fought hard in their final game against New England despite knowing they would be a wild card, then went out and won three road playoff games and Super Bowl XLII.

By playing it that way, McCarthy risked someone suffering a major injury. Earlier in the day, New England coach Bill Belichick lost receiver Wes Welker to a season-ending knee injury in a game that meant nothing to the Patriots.

But flip things around. Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt played the majority of his starters on defense less than a quarter, yet lost cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to a bruised knee and wide receiver Anquan Boldin to a sprained knee. Neither has been ruled out of the playoff game

The lone injury the Packers suffered was to arguably their most valuable player, cornerback Charles Woodson, who aggravated a shoulder sprain that first showed up on the injury report after the Detroit game Thanksgiving Day. Woodson hurt it Sunday reaching to make a tackle and was taken out of the game for good.

McCarthy said he didn't think it would affect his status for next week.

"I think he's going to be fine," he said. "We know that Charles has always fought through injuries. If the situation was different, he would have returned in the game."

The majority of players said they were glad McCarthy played it the way he did. It's been a long season, but McCarthy built in extra down time after a Thanksgiving Day game against Detroit and a day off on Christmas. Coming into the game having won six of seven, some thought it was better to keep going.

"Nothing was brought up the whole week about coming out of the game," center Scott Wells said.

"We knew we had to carry some positive momentum into the postseason, and we felt coming here and playing good football and trying to get the win was the way to do that."

During the week, McCarthy had an extended practice that was presumably held to introduce the players to the game plan they would use against the Cardinals come playoff time. Some of the plan was available for the regular-season finale, but McCarthy said he crossed a lot of things off his play sheet as the game went on.

The one thing the Packers didn't know was Whisenhunt's approach. Wells said the Packers applied all their knowledge of the game plan throughout the game, expecting that Whisenhunt might eventually throw some meaningful defenses at them.

"We didn't know if they'd be vanilla or bring the house to give us something to think about," Wells said. "The way they played this game is not an indication of how the playoff game is going to go. They've shown some pressures in other games that we didn't get this game. So we're going to have to be prepared for everything in their repertoire."

On defense, it was apparent coordinator Dom Capers was not going to tip his hand as to how he would attack quarterback Kurt Warner and this talented trio of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston. He threw in a cornerback blitz or two, but for the most part, he rushed four guys all day long.

"We didn't call any exotic blitzes or personnel," linebacker Nick Barnett said. "Sometimes, we don't do that. Every other week we have something different. But I like the way we look right now. I like the way we're playing. Who knows what Capers will come up with. We'll just play defense."

*********************************

Unlike the New York Giants vs. New England scenario from 2007, Green Bay got an opponent that was clearly less motivated (which was very much the story when Green Bay was a juggernaut in their first three preseason games), and they are drawing the same team in a rematch the following week.

I've been a big admirer of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt since I did some extensive research on him before he faced and beat his former Pittsburgh team back in Week No. 4 of the 2007 season . . . Regardless, Arizona got hot at just the right time last year, but I doubt catching that genie in the bottle again is the destiny of this inconsistent 2009 squad.

***********************************


GL
 

lostinamerica

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Cincinnati(-1)(-115) over New York Jets (1*)
- - "The Jets needed back-to-back opponents? tank-a-thons just to make the postseason. The Bengals have the better record, they have the better quarterback, they?re playing at home, they should be pissed off. They have every intangible this week the Jets owned last week. They?ll (be rested and fresh and) trying really, really hard, boys and girls. Unlike Sunday night." . . . the Colts and Saints are 1-5 their last 6 games and should probably just quit now.
- - The Bengals season of Hard Knocks has been a roller coaster of highs and lows, starting with Brandon Stokley's "immaculate deception", but the body of work shows me strengths across the board, especially on defense, that will get this game to involve a test of the ability of rookie QB Sanchez to play beyond what I've been seeing in inclement weather (although I was expecting worse conditions).
- - The Bengals are familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes and gamesmanship from his years with the Ravens.
- - Before the Jets went to New Orleans, I read a comment that "the sharps" would be choosing their spots to back the Jets defense throughout the season, but that week in New Orleans was not lining up as one of them . . . There are plenty of those "sharps" liking the swagger of that defense in a postseason spot on the road against what has been a non-explosive offense like the Bengals.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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NFL Post Season: 1-1 (-0.15*)
NFL Regular Season: 57-45 (+8.40*)

NCAA Regular Season: 51-46 (-2.64*)
2009-2010 Bowl Season: 10-11 (+0.12*)

Top plays
(included above) 13-9 (+3.84*)


Thoughts on Green Bay vs. Arizona:

IMO, both Green Bay and Arizona fit the mold for the trends noted in this post:
http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=393488

"When statistically weak teams do well in the postseason they are almost always surprise teams with "no expectations" and "no prior playoff success" such as Zona last season . . . When a team with prior SB experience enters the postseason as a statistically weak team they rarely ever have postseason success. . . . Zona played just 4 teams with winning records all season, the fewest of any team, Packers 7 . . . When teams play weak statistically such as Zona has against weak opponents this season it almost always spells blow-out in the teams opening playoff game. Last season this angle applied to Miami and they were rocked by the Ravens 27-9 (at home) . . . When a team plays dominate against a weak schedule such as the Packers have, it's a good indicator of postseason success."


However, some scary stuff IMO . . .

QB Kurt Warner is 8-3 SU in post season games, and 2 of those losses came in the Super Bowl.

IF Green Bay's solidified OL and ball-hawking defense play as such, QB Aaron Rodgers will do right by his weapons and advance the Packers to the next round.

Arizona has too good a coach with too good a team under his saddle to not expect a worthy effort and a tough out from the home team. "Throughout the week, Whisenhunt and the Cardinals have seemed strangely calm and confident, as if they know something the rest of us don't."

Green Bay's defense thrives on turnovers, and IMO that defense is far from stout against a team that tosses the ball all over the field if the turnovers don't come.

All the momentum Green Bay supposedly carries into this game could quickly evaporate on this return trip to the desert and look fairly tenuous if the home team jumps out to a 7-0 lead.

the line maker isn't supposed to set the line according to how the game is going to turn out, he sets it according to where he thinks the betting will go . . .

5 point swings in an NFL game without an injury are unheard of, and they CERTAINLY don't happen in the post season . . .

They couldn't pray hard enough for an Arizona win tomorrow.


GL
 

lostinamerica

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I'm struggling with the Ravens/Patriots game because my perception for the season with both teams is not very favorable.

True, the Patriots get held to a lofty standard, but I loook back and recall that after the gift from the Bills in the opener they were undressed by the upstart Jets, fairly lucky against these Ravens, lacking any confidence in their defense at the end of the Indy game, conceding the 4th quarter against the Saints in a "No Mas" gesture of defeat, having inspirational WR Welker be lost in a meaningless Week 17 game, and RB Maroney has fumbling problems and now returns today after about 7 quarters on the sidelines.

The story and perception on the Ravens is starting 3-0 (including on the road at San Diego), and then going 0-3 and 6-7 thereafter (including 0-6 thereafter against playoff teams), too many penalties and mistakes, second year struggles by strong armed QB Flacco when the expectations rose, looking lost in the game involving Jack's "bucket list" trip to Lambeau Field, and 0-5 all time against New England.

I believe QB Brady is like 16-1 SU in games below 32 degrees, and 8-0 SU in home playoff games (but only 4-3-1 ATS). I think this should be a good game between AFC rivals, but I can't see my money on this Ravens team taking down a very good passing attack with so much post season experience in the role. On the other hand, I sort of like the 3' points, but I like more points even more. Thus . . .


TEASE Baltimore(+9') over New England w/ Green Bay/Arizona (Ov41)
- - The loser in the GB/Ariz game will put up at least 20 points, so it should go Ov47 as well.


GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL Post Season: 2-2 (-1.15*)

Arizona(+7) over New Orleans (1*)
- - The Saints "mission" and the energy of the home crowd has me wanting to find lots of reasons for backing the Saints after an emotionally draining effort by the Cardinals. But in the end I'm stuck on a veteran playoff team with a hot and proven QB and IMO the best coach in the NFC, with the 'Zona OL in a hostile environment as the worrisome deficiency in creating just as many favorable matchups as their opponent.

For fun:
Brees Ov 2.5 TD passes(+160)
Arizona Ov 2 TD passes(+120)

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Dallas(+3)(-125) over Minnesota (1*)
- - I like this play and my reasons behind it loads more than whatever reasons end up directing my dart throw in the Ravens vs. Patriots game.
personally i think one of the overlooked weaknesses of the queens is their secondary......they can be had.

i also think that dallas dline can have a bigger day than the minn dline.....home field and crowd noise could be the neutralizer.

should be a good game.....hate both teams.....but think dal wins 24-17
An accurate and concise assessment, IMO. I'll try and add to it.

Favre has been far too comfortable all season: 3 interceptions in the first 11 games.

Favre has been entirely too comfortable at home: 8-0.

Favre has been far less comfortable recently: two beatdowns and 3 losses in the last 5 games.

If Favre is made uncomfortable, should be a 4:0corn or 5:0corn playoff game out of 5.

I've said it all season, and its played out exactly that way: Romo is streaky good just as surely as he's been streaky bad.

Give a bad coach like Childress two weeks, and you'll likely see (that reality reflected in his team).

http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_14176478

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/81287502.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUo8cyaiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr

10fans0116.jpg
JerryJones.jpg

GL

______________________________________________________
"To stop further confusion, I am closing this thread." ? MadJack
 

lostinamerica

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San Diego(-7)(-120) over New York Jets (1*)
- - I don't think San Diego is on quite the players/team/community "mission" that New Orleans is, but it's close. With the home team exhibiting the same rest and leadership as their NFC counterparts, the high-talking Jets will be playing fom behind at some point in the second half when they will have to show they are even better than (self) advertised.

GL
 
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