playoffs - round 1

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Was hoping that Ottawa and Pitt might meet later on, but with Daniel hurting for the Sens I think they could be in trouble. Still have some scoring available--might be some overs. I'd rather see Pitt advance but they're too pricey here.

I think that the Rangers can take down the Devils. Brodeur can't do everything and the Rangers tending can compete. Rangers owned them all season until the final game--hard to say what to make of that result as far as this series goes...was for home-ice so certainly was meaningful. Rangers have been a pretty strong road team for a few years now. Think they take game #1 and the series in a max. of 6.

Avs appear to be healthy and should give the Wild a ride. Wild are a very strong home team but I think the Avs take this one, as long as they take one of the first two in Minny. Wild just had a couple of key D-men go down which sells me on this series.

Flames took the last 3 meetings with the Sharks--two in O.T.--but catch them pretty hot. Somebody may have taken my marbles away but I think that this series will see an upset. Flames have more scoring and better goaltending. Sharks have a better defensive system and Joe Thornton. The Flames can get around the former if they get hot while Joe will likely be a target of several Flames D-men. Sharks do enter the playoffs on a two-game losing streak while the Flames closed with a 4-game road trip going L,W,L,W, facing desperate playoff contenders each time and finishing with a 7-1 shellacking of Can in Van. Both teams healthy. Live dog.


Guess that makes 3 of 4 series I'm calling for the lower seed to advance.
I'll save the other series' for later--these start Wednesday.

PLAYS

series plays
---------------
rangers -121 1.21/1
flames +260 0.5/1.3
avalanche +100 0.75/0.75

Wednesday
----------------
rangers +110 0.7/0.77
flames +175 0.6/1.05

2-teamer
flames over2 -108
Ducks Thursday -164
+210
0.48/1

15-team IF bet
1.avalanche 0.5/0.53
2.ott@Pitt ov5.5 0.5/0.5
3.rangers 0.5/0.52
4.flames over2 0.69/0.6
5.Chisox 0.81/0.6
6.dodgers 0.66/0.6
7.cards 0.63/0.6
8.clev@Laa ov9.5 0.84/0.7
9.cin@Mil ov10 0.77/0.7
10.det@Bost ov9.5 1/0.8
11.m's@Tbay ov9 0.9/0.75
12.atl@Col ov10.5 1.1/1
13.padres 1.35/1
14.nyy@Kc un9 1.2/1
15.Nationals 1.4/1
0.5 to win max 10.9


I'll be glued.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Very much enjoying the festivities so far.

Wings won't be denied in this series. I'd be surprised if Nash won more than one.

Habs should beat Bruins but they don't really impress me right now outside of Price. Top PP unit will be pointed out by Bruins brass so they might be disciplined if they want to have a hope in hell. B's strength is their D. Probably some unders in the offing but -148 on the lowball? sucks.

Ducks might progress some. Can't see big-D taking them out here. Turco might keep 'em in at times but in a best-of-7 I think they're toast. Would try the series at around -150 but it's somewhat higher. Stars take the opener and I'll look for even odds on a Ducks series play. Could happen. Sure hope not.

PLAYS

series plays
---------------
Wings -2.5 games +100 0.5/0.5
Ducks -1.5 games +100 0.5/0.5

Thursday
-------------
Need the Ducks for yesterday's parlay and also added the Wings on two parlays, one with the Mets and one with the Jays, both paying +130ish. Wings -1.5 (+118) might score but I'll stick with the moneyline shots. Nothing else looks special; B's-Habs looks under but the juice is bitter. Flames I'll root for but won't push my luck...maybe if I clean up early, at +180ish--game #3 at home might be a better play there.

Might be more to come but I'll likely just take it easy today.
Long way to go.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

One more series...

Caps I logged in to play (series) at even money and before I could place my bet they were -150...quite a swing. Won't touch it for that as the Flyers have a little more balance and haven't been playing too poorly to close out the season. Might consider Flyers for a fair price at home in #3 or #4. I don't think that either team would survive round 2. Probably spectating unless some spectacular evidence evolves.

bonne puck

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Fri Apr 11th

PLAYS

rangers +108 0.8/0.86
avalanche +117 0.8/0.94


Hope to see (at least) one of these lower seeds go home happy.
Might even start counting my money while I'm sitting at the table. series-wise

Also have the Pens on the moneyline on a parlay with the Rays. Couldn't resist--was going to go with the Hawks or the Pistons but the Penguins look just as good today and cost about the same. +135 there.

Trying the Caps by 1 and 2 buried on some IFs.
Like it but seems to be priced kinda steep.

Hit one of four score predictions last night. Got the right winner on 3 of 4.
Might as well go now--see what's already taken for the contest later (if I understand the rules).

Capitals 4-2
Penguins 4-1
rangers 2-1 (in regulation)
avalanche 4-2 (empty netter)

My guess is some of these are gone in the contest. Not really going out on a limb anywhere.
Same with the plays.
Not sure if I'm going on hope, intuition or something more workable.

May your camel be dry.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

one was taken in the contest...

Capitals 3-1


Gimme gimme one of the others.
No interest in this game one matchup.

May your organs be grinding.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sat

Sat

Kind of like all 3 home teams to do their thing today. A parlay of all 3 only pays +213. Tempting but pass. Home teams -3 goals at -110 was another thought. Passing again...one home squad loses and I'd need a couple of puck-lines.

PLAYS

Red Wings -1.5 +119 0.6/0.71


Also have the Wings parlayed with the Rays (worked yesterday, with Pens) and the Ducks with the Pale Hose under 5 runs (Eddings umping).

Think I'll leave it at that.
Lots of diamonds in the rough today.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

for Sunday

for Sunday

game #3

Flames +105 0.8/0.84


They take this one and I'd try #4 again. Drop it and I might spectate the remainder of this series.

Will add to this play if I can surprise god with a solid day Saturday. Looks worthwhile. Sharks a killer road team but Flames a solid home-club.

Might also try the blueshirts if affordable.
Likely be -150ish.
Maybe to parlay.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Really just holding my own with the baseball tragedy that is my April. Up about 3 units on the rink. Series plays might add to that--know more after tonight.

see ya Sens

Caps-Phil is tough to call. Kind of like it under and kind of lean to Philly.

Habs should close but it could be underish again.

Avs look good to wake up and smell the coffee.
Looks best to me.

Ducks may have found their game. Like the Avs better--same price--so I'll stick to that.

GL Flames. You tools may be golfing soon thanks to that last 5-minute meltdown in game #4. This game looks crucial for both contenders. I'll root Flames (series play) but won't touch it unless I totally clean up earlier...which isn't happening these days.

PLAYS

bost@Mon un5 -130 0.78/0.6
avalanche +115 1/1.15
grand salami under25.5 -105 0.84/0.8


Each game is an under-lean for me so why not.
If I get swept then I'm not bowling at midnight.

The Guillotined Pixies will just have to find a sub.

GL

 

[Mr.]

You really on a midnight bowling team in town? Where abouts?

gl