Went 4-0 LW in the Wildcard Round. Hoping to keep this small streak alive through the Divisional Round this week.
Speaking of Divsional Round. Looking at the history of the "DR" since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 12, there have been more instances of the pointspread coming into play than in any other 3 playoff rounds.
The SU winner in Division games have covered 82% of the time or better than 4 of 5 games.
SU winners in the Wild Card Round, Conference Championships and Super Bowl have a higher rate of pointspread success.
Interestingly however, from a SU success perspective, better than 82% of home teams, and over 78 % of favored teams come through.
In most instances these are one as the same as it is extremely rare for a road team to be favored in this round. Over the past 12 seasons this round has also produced the most lopsided results with the average victory margin of slightly more than 16 points. So we have a very interesting set of dynamics at work in this round.
I see another Capper brings us this stat...
Home sides playing off a bye are 28-18 (61% over the past 11 yrs)
A case here can be made that xtra time is a benefit, but teams with a bye are presumably among the best the NFL has to offer and have the muscle to cover the number when laying significant points.
Another area of interest concerns teams posting upsets in the Wld Card Round.
Upstart dogs have gone just 4-1 ATS (27%) in the 2nd round.
Meanwhile teams off at least a 10-Point win (COLTS) are a disappointing 7-16 (30%).
The strongest plays have been home sides that already beat the opponent twice in the regular season (division rivals) or have not seen the other team all year! (STL over Carolina & KC over Indy))
In general, teams that earn home field advantage are no guarantee of success when on the road against the "big boyz" the following week.
=========================
ROUND II (Home Team won all 4 games last year)
Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams -7
Hard to go-against Carolina coming off their "perfect" game (No penalities or TOs) this 1st Playoff team to do that since the Steelers in Super Bowl X.
Delhomme, coming off his 273 PYs against Dallas' #1 passing "D", will have to be at his best again here. As the Rams are fresh off their bye and have reached at least 27 points in their last 10 HGs.
The Rams have won 14 straight home games dating back to last season and 9 of those wins, include 6 of the last 7, have been by at least 10 points. The rug makes the difference.
The Panthers have been senssational in close games, winning 7 times by a FG or less, but have not produce offensively on the road all season. Only in their regular season finale against the disinterested G-Men did the Panthers score more than 23 points away from home.
All in all "IF" the Panthers fall behind, their highly relied on running game isn't going to help them here.
The host is on a 10-3 ATS run in Ram contests.
The "dog" counters with 13-4 ATS run in Panther contests.
Even after this write-up I'm still having trouble pulling the trigger on a 7-pt favorite. Definitely won't on a 7.5 one.
I'll watch where the incoming money goes then make my play.
==============================
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots -6
This one has play written all over it.
Titans were 5-3 on the road but one of those losses was against the Patsies 38-30 in NE. In that game Titans outgained the Patsies by nearly 100 yards but commited the only TO of the game. Tennessee had the leagues top rusing "D" but the worst game of the season came against NE yielding 161 yards or close to 6.0 ypc but the "D" has improved since then.
NE hold the edge in the kicking game with longer FG range capability. Their "D" has been dominant at home holding 7 of its last 8 foes to 16 points or less and posting 3 shutouts.
TEN can move the ball against the Patsies and defeated them at home late last year.
NE 13-1-1 ATS (only miss by 2 pts)
TEN is on a current 20-10 ATS run & 23-8 SU skein.
Eariler in the year the Patsies were favored by 1.
So why the inflated pointspread ?
Obviously the answer is because they won 12 games in a row.
13 is an unlucky number. Right ?
Titans + 6 :yup
Love to see an upset
===========================
Sundays games forthcoming.
SC
4-0-0 Post Season
83-63-5 Regular Season
Speaking of Divsional Round. Looking at the history of the "DR" since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 12, there have been more instances of the pointspread coming into play than in any other 3 playoff rounds.
The SU winner in Division games have covered 82% of the time or better than 4 of 5 games.
SU winners in the Wild Card Round, Conference Championships and Super Bowl have a higher rate of pointspread success.
Interestingly however, from a SU success perspective, better than 82% of home teams, and over 78 % of favored teams come through.
In most instances these are one as the same as it is extremely rare for a road team to be favored in this round. Over the past 12 seasons this round has also produced the most lopsided results with the average victory margin of slightly more than 16 points. So we have a very interesting set of dynamics at work in this round.
I see another Capper brings us this stat...
Home sides playing off a bye are 28-18 (61% over the past 11 yrs)
A case here can be made that xtra time is a benefit, but teams with a bye are presumably among the best the NFL has to offer and have the muscle to cover the number when laying significant points.
Another area of interest concerns teams posting upsets in the Wld Card Round.
Upstart dogs have gone just 4-1 ATS (27%) in the 2nd round.
Meanwhile teams off at least a 10-Point win (COLTS) are a disappointing 7-16 (30%).
The strongest plays have been home sides that already beat the opponent twice in the regular season (division rivals) or have not seen the other team all year! (STL over Carolina & KC over Indy))
In general, teams that earn home field advantage are no guarantee of success when on the road against the "big boyz" the following week.
=========================
ROUND II (Home Team won all 4 games last year)
Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams -7
Hard to go-against Carolina coming off their "perfect" game (No penalities or TOs) this 1st Playoff team to do that since the Steelers in Super Bowl X.
Delhomme, coming off his 273 PYs against Dallas' #1 passing "D", will have to be at his best again here. As the Rams are fresh off their bye and have reached at least 27 points in their last 10 HGs.
The Rams have won 14 straight home games dating back to last season and 9 of those wins, include 6 of the last 7, have been by at least 10 points. The rug makes the difference.
The Panthers have been senssational in close games, winning 7 times by a FG or less, but have not produce offensively on the road all season. Only in their regular season finale against the disinterested G-Men did the Panthers score more than 23 points away from home.
All in all "IF" the Panthers fall behind, their highly relied on running game isn't going to help them here.
The host is on a 10-3 ATS run in Ram contests.
The "dog" counters with 13-4 ATS run in Panther contests.
Even after this write-up I'm still having trouble pulling the trigger on a 7-pt favorite. Definitely won't on a 7.5 one.
I'll watch where the incoming money goes then make my play.
==============================
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots -6
This one has play written all over it.
Titans were 5-3 on the road but one of those losses was against the Patsies 38-30 in NE. In that game Titans outgained the Patsies by nearly 100 yards but commited the only TO of the game. Tennessee had the leagues top rusing "D" but the worst game of the season came against NE yielding 161 yards or close to 6.0 ypc but the "D" has improved since then.
NE hold the edge in the kicking game with longer FG range capability. Their "D" has been dominant at home holding 7 of its last 8 foes to 16 points or less and posting 3 shutouts.
TEN can move the ball against the Patsies and defeated them at home late last year.
NE 13-1-1 ATS (only miss by 2 pts)
TEN is on a current 20-10 ATS run & 23-8 SU skein.
Eariler in the year the Patsies were favored by 1.
So why the inflated pointspread ?
Obviously the answer is because they won 12 games in a row.
13 is an unlucky number. Right ?
Titans + 6 :yup
Love to see an upset
===========================
Sundays games forthcoming.
SC
4-0-0 Post Season
83-63-5 Regular Season
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