plays & angles for 11/18 - 11/20

[AR182]

this is the continuation of pete fiutak's theory of double digit home dogs...................

In the weekly tracking of my theory that, after the early part of the year, the double-digit home underdog almost always covers. Last week, the home dogs went an 6-1 ATS with Clemson losing to Duke, Texas struggling against Kansas, Utah giving up a few late scores to Wyoming, Cal missing the spread by a half a point against Washington, Troy barely getting by UL Lafayette and Boise State needing double OT to beat San Jose State. Only Miami University covered beating Western Michigan. That brings the total up to 44-15 ATS over the last six weeks. So as a continued public service, here are this weeks offerings ...
- Oklahoma -33.5 at Baylor
- UAB -12 at Army
- Boston College -14 at Temple
- Northern Illinois -17 at Eastern Michigan
- Memphis -15 at East Carolina
- Tennessee -12.5 at Vanderbilt
- Louisville -20.5 at Houston


good luck

 

[Irish]

Good luck AR
Love the Baylor play, already on it, but haven't done a write-up. Looking at the Temple game but I can't play it because the Big East title will more than likely hing on it. I think the Eagles might come out big! Still best of luck to you this weekend!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Dizzayton]

If Bama goes off at +10 that may be the livest one of them all.

 

[AR182]

here are a couple of angles that i came across.....


teams that are playing their 4th straight home game...was favored & won the previous 3 games...

since 1994....5-14 ats (26.3%)

play against lsu



teams playing after a bye week & are playing on the road & favored by 7.5 points or more.........

since 1994.....54-88-2 ats (38%)

play against tenn.


good luck.

 

[Clem D]

Great as usual
continued success

 

[AR182]

thanks guys, appreciate it.


here is something that i just read. take it fwiw.......

michigan state is 5-37 ats when they don't score 21 points, including 1-16 ats in the last 17 times.

penn st. allows 15.5 points per game & gave up 20 points to purdue at home, which is the most points they allowed at home this year.

the question is.....will msu score over 21 points with their starting qb hurting, on natural grass & in what could be joe pa's final home game ?


good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

great stats...

just to put it in a little context.....penn st has scored over 21 points 3 times this year......vs indiana,cent fla and akron......they`ve scored in single digits 5 times......

so,just to be fair,mich st may not have to score 21 points to win and cover here...

a tough call....

based on all these stats and penn st`s recent past defensively,maybe under 43 is the way to go....or you could tease penn st and the under.....


just yinging to your yang.......lol....g.l.,bud...

 

[AR182]

gw,

thanks for yinging my yang (lol).

at this point i'm not touching this game.

i may be wrong, but i don't think this is the "slam bang" mich. st. win that i'm seeing all over the net.

 

[gardenweasel]

i have a small wager on mich st-3....and i may look at a weird kind of hedge with penn st and the under in a tease.....with a shot at hitting both....also losing both..lol

glad i could ying your yang....

i`d call you,but i`d probably "wing" the "wong" number....

g.l.

 

[AR182]

114-96.....+20.96*


2.5*conn.-24(120)...........

conn.needs another win to qualify for it's first bowl game ever & buffalo is the perfect opponent for them. conn. played 2 other poor defensive teams & scored 40 on army & 45 on temple. buffalo is 2-13 ats in last 15 road games vs. teams that have a winning record (0-8 ats in last 8).
conn. should win by at least 30 points.

2.5*under 47 kansas/missouri........

i have seen missouri play a few times this year & am not impressed with their offense, especially their qb.he is very inaccurate when he throws down the field.kansas is playing their 4th string qb.
both teams have very good defenses.
i don't see this game going over 40 total points.

2.5*gt+7(130)...........

virginia is in a huge sandwich between their emotional loss last week to miami (virginia had a shot at the acc crown if they beat miami) & a season finale against instate rival virginia tech.
uva is averaging about 19 ppg in their last 4 games while gt is allowing an average of 9.5 ppg in 4 of it's last 5 games.gt is 8-2 ats as a home dog of 7 points or less since 1994.
gt wins this game outright.

2.5*c. mich.-3..........

c. mich. has a pretty well balanced offense while ball st. is 0-5 ats & yielding about 47 ppg. on the road this year.

2.5*fresno st.-24(120)..........

nevada is another team that constantly plays poorly on the road & is 0-7 ats in it's last 7 road games. fsu backs sumlin & mathas have combined for over 1300 rushing yards this year at 6.3 yards per rush & have scored 17 td's. nevada allows 5.6 ypr to teams that average 4.9 ypr.so it seems that fsu may not throw a pass in this game.meanwhile nevada has scored a total of 23 points against the 2 above average defenses they have played (san diego st. & unlv) this year.
fsu should win by 35.

2*san diego st.-9.........

this is a bet against unlv, who imo is a poorly coached team that constantly commits stupid fouls & has quit for the season after their loss to wyoming. they have given up 63,53, & 45 points in their last 3 games.

2.5*col.st.-1........

col.st is a better balanced team than air force & under coach sonny is 44-22 ats in regular season games from game 7 on, including 34-14 ats if they are coming off a win.

good luck.

 

[AR182]

another team that i have seen many on is michigan. many people are stating that a mich. win(cover) is a given. now michigan may well beat ohio st but imo mich. covering is not going to so easy.

here is quick analysis from a respected capper from another site........


"While I can see your point here about siding with Michigan I would lean to the Buckeye's at this point. If you look at the numbers you will find that the Buckeye "D" is only giving up 11 yards per game more than Michigan. And the Buckeyes are only giving up 13.6 points per game as compared to 18.7 PPG.

Now if you look at the offensive side of the ball, surprisingly there is not that much difference there either. Michigan is generating 380 yards per game to the Buckeye's 346 YPG. Michigan is scoring 25.2 points per game to Ohio St's 23 PPG. Michigan is rushing for 162 YPG to the Buckeye's 165 YPG. Ohio St. also has a better Defensive Yards Per Point average, 20.0 to 13.9 for Michigan.

So this will not be as easy for the Wolverines as some may think. And there is nothing more than the Buckeye's would want then to spoil Michigans run through the Big 10. And the game is in the Horseshoe. Just some points to consider."


also michigan is 8-20-1 ats as a road favorite in their last 29.

 

[Master Capper]

great info AR, I am on most of your plays and am looking at CMU as a large play

 

[trolln4walii]

Best of luck on the plays this week AR. As always, great info. Thanks for sharing

 

[AR182]

adding......

all for 2.5*...

e. mich+18
tcu...p
teaser...iowa+4.5/u47
utep-20
rutgers+4
temple+14.5
army+12


good luck.

 

[AR182]

adding.....

2.5*w.f.+19


good luck.

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck AR. Great stuff as usual.