plays & angles for 11/9-11/13......

[AR182]

earlier this year i posted a few angles from a sharp poster on another forum & it did well. this week he posted this angle based on the last home game of the season.......

"Last week, there were nine teams in this system/situation and they went 7-2 ATS....so, let's try it this week.....

Play on any conference home team who is playing their LHG (last home game) as a favorite, up to -17, versus an opponent with a .500 or greater winning percentage as a conference road team -- 77-37 ATS

Potential teams this week include -- Northern Illinois, West Virginia, Michigan, BYU, Florida, and Bowling Green....."

good luck.

 

[bombercoops]

Nice angles! GL with the plays for the week.

 

[AR182]

thanks bombercoops.........good luck also



Best "Last Home Game" teams;

Michigan State 13-0 ATS
Texas 10-1 ATS
Florida State 8-1 ATS
Wisconsin 7-1 ATS
Tennessee 6-0 ATS
Oregon State 5-0 ATS
Toledo 6-0 ATS
Iowa 11-1 ATS
Texas Tech 14-2 ATS
USC 7-1 ATS
Virginia 7-1 ATS

Worse "Last Home Game" teams;

Arizona 0-10 ATS
Army 0-5 ATS
Memphis 1-10 ATS
Auburn 1-9 ATS
South Carolina 2-11 ATS
Mississippi State 3-15 ATS
Baylor 1-5-1 ATS
North Carolina 2-9 ATS
SMU 2-8 ATS
Indiana 4-12 ATS

 

[Irish]

Great info... Thanks AR
Good luck this weekend!

Cheers
Irish

 

[CWood97]

Wow, excellent info. Thanks

 

[taoist]

...thanks for all of your contributions around here, AR. BOL in the contest this week, buddy!

 

[AR182]

thanks for the props, guys.

taoist,

have been in a 3 week slump, so not sure where i'll finish in the contest. good luck to you also in the contest.


105-88...+12.78

a few of my systems that did well in the beginning of the season is not doing well now. so i've decided to limit my plays.

i have no play for tonight's game, but came upon this info that some might find interesting.......


northern illinois is 21-10 ats all-time mark at home (3-0 ats this season), including 16-4 ats since the last 5 years when not favored by more than 17 points (15-2 ats against teams with a win percentage less than .700).

toledo is 16-19-3 ats on the road life-time, compared to 24-12 ats at home, and only 3-9-2 ats on the road against teams with an win percentage of .667 or higher.


good luck.

 

[tulah]

I was leaning to Auburn but now that I know they are 1-9 in their
last home game I think I might change my mind.or maybe a no play

Thanx for the great info!

GL AR182

 

[AR182]

tulah,

good luck to you also.


here is this weeks version of double digit home dogs by pete fiutak of the college football news....


In the weekly tracking of my theory that, after the early part of the year, the double-digit home underdog almost always covers going 31-13 ATS over the last five weeks. Last week, the home dogs went an unbelievable 6-2 ATS. That brings the total up to 38-14. So as a continued public service, here are this weeks offerings ...

- Clemson -12.5 at Duke

- Texas -21.5 at Kansas

- Miami Univ. -20 at Western Michigan

- Utah -23 at Wyoming

- Cal -30.5 at Washington (honestly , shouldn't
the spread by 65?)

- Troy -13 at UL Lafayette

- Boise State -31 at San Jose State


good luck.

 

[Master Capper]

great info!!

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this weekend AR!


toy

 

[bombercoops]

Once again, nice info! Like duke and wyoming myself but all the best with the plays, regardless what you decide to take this week AR!

 

[Blackman]

Think I might be on Utah as well, since they dropped to 7th I guess they have to put 70 on the board every week to keep pace.

 

[Bill]

AR thanks for the information. It is very helpful and made me a feqw bucks last week (which I immediately lost with a 2-6 night in the NBA).

Please keep feeding we less knowlegeables.

Bill

 

[AR182]

thanks guys, good luck to all of you also.


ark. st.-6.5(120).......

bought this earlier in the week, but not sure how much i'll keep. watching the weather reports.

here are the reasons why i like ark. st.......

ark. st. has a pretty good runner, named antonio warren, who is averaging 5.7 ypc. & the asu team averages about 146 ypg on the ground.....utah st. defense allows about 200 rushing yards per game at 4.6 ypc. they average only 64 ypg running the ball.

on the year utah st. is averaging only 15.5 pts. & 240 total yards per game.

a stat site that i use projects that tonight ark. st. will rush for 175 yards & utah st. for 77 yards. over the season teams that rush the ball for twice the amount of yards than their opponent are 158-62 ats(71.8%).

this is asu's 3rd home game of the season. in their last home game they upset troy st. in their only other home game, asu led memphis for most of the game, but lost the game in the 4th quarter.for this year asu is 2-0 ats at home & 7-3 ats at home under their present coach since he took over.

asu is 14-2 in it's last 16 wins.

utah st. is playing their 4th straight away game & 6th in 7 weeks. looking at utah st's last 4 road trips.......10/16 they traveled to clemson on the east coast.....10/30 they traveled to middle tenn. st......11/6 they traveled to louisiana monroe......now on a short work week they are traveling again across the country, this time to arkansas.

utah st. is a very young team having had the 2nd highest freshmen participation in the country.this may be the reason why they are 1-5 ats on the road this year. they are 9-22 ats over all on the road with this present coach.

this year sun belt home teams are 16-6 ats.

for those who think that utah st. will be very motivated for this game because they fired their coach this week.......the other 2 schools that fired their coach this year(wash. & fla.), but kept them for the remainder of the season.....both lost su & ats in the very next game.

i think asu will be the team with extra motivation because they want to avenge last years loss to utah st where they lost by a score of 49-0. asu is 6-0 ats in home games with revenge.

good luck.

 

[Clem D]

Ar great stuff as usual. I love to play teams on favs on homecoming and in their last game at home.
especially if revenge is involved.
Hence my Wake Forrest play

 

[gardenweasel]

grabbed asu myself earlier in the week..liked their previous home efforts this year..still,asking myself why i`m involved with these two pathetic clubs...lol...


also took memphis tomorrow.....s.miss. appears to be a tad overrated at this point....memphis maybe a tad underrated,imo...

don`t like these weeknight games....but these two look do-able...particularly memphis....

g.l.,bud....

 

[AR182]

thanks clem & gw....good luck to both of you also.


i decided to buy back my ark. st. bet because i'm not comfortable laying points with a bad team....

so i'm doing this......

5*ark. st-6.5(120)
5*utah st.+7.5(120)

2*teaser....

ark. st....pick
u 62



2*teaser

nc st.+14
u 49.5


good luck.

 

[AR182]

1*teaser

fresno st.-13.5
u 70.5


good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Love opening your threads AR. Always very informative. Best of luck to you on your plays this week