plays & angles for 9/8-9/10

[AR182]

went 16-12 +5.30* last week.....will try to cut down on my plays....


2*u49 calif./wash........put this play in yesterday.

lonshore, calif.'s starting qb broke his ankle in last week's game.....his fill in ayoob & levy completed only 2-17 passes.....willingham played very conservative last week vs. air force...can't see this game going over 41 total points.


for those interested here is a system that i just read about..........

play against any game 2 college football home favorite coming off a straight up loss at home...

since 1980: 27-17 ats (62%)
since 1994: 9-4 ats (69%)

play: miss. st. vs. auburn, tulsa vs. oklahoma, buffalo vs. syracuse.

good luck.

 

[Sun Tzu]

I generally ignore trends but there is one I have played. In essence go against any favorite that is coming off a staright up and ATS win when scoring 10 points or less. Obviously rarely comes up, but applies if you can get line on Florida State game and also on Vandy v ole'Miss next week.

 

[pt1gard]

well the UW played in seattle and only 27K came b/c if was an AF home game ... but I think this shows you how excited UW fans are about TY era, they did gouge the fans as usual for tic prices tho ...

I posted earlier the weather would be good for game, but possibly rain now ... that Under looks good AR, I dont see UW getting 21 and Cal with qb thing going might struggle too ....

LY Cal came in here and had poor FH, not sure how that FX their psyche

gl, gregg

 

[MACH1]

GL AR!!

ASU looks sharp on Offense this yr. They should give USC all they want. Hope they've improved their D.

Going to tail ya on this Cal under..

 

[smurphy]

Thanks for that trend AR. I was already loving Auburn this week and leaning on the other 2. Looks like I'll have a play on all 3 now.

GL on your plays!

 

[AR182]

thanks, guys...

smurphy quote:"Thanks for that trend AR. I was already loving Auburn this week and leaning on the other 2. Looks like I'll have a play on all 3 now.


murph,

i don't know if you're being sarcastic or not but this system says bet the dogs...that is if you follow angles.

 

[smurphy]

I was reading that wrong!!! LOL!!!!

oh man, nevermind. :mj07:

I love Auburn this week though!

 

[Irish]

AR
Haven't looked at those games GL this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

irish...thanks...much appreciated.


here is a system i just read.....haven't checked if all these teams qualify yet.


Play Under - Any team against the total after playing a Thursday game.

80-38 over the last 5 seasons.....67.8%

Teams that qualify:
-Marshall
-Cincinnati
-Temple
-Tulsa
-Buffalo
-S.Carolina
-Wake Forest
-Vanderbilt
-Toledo
-Arizona St.
-LA Monroe
-E.Michigan

good luck.

 

[AR182]

2*u48(120) tex./osu......put this in monday.....

okla. gave osu the blueprint in how to defend young & the texas offense...force young to beat them in the air.....osu has 9 returning starters from last year's defense & the speedy linebackers to do it.....don't think osu has the balanced offense to move the ball constantly on the tex. defense.....so basically we have one dimensional offenses vs. excellent defenses........don't see this going over 41 total points.

good luck.

 

[taoist]

..go get 'em, AR.


...good stuff, as always. :mj14:


...best of luck this season, bud.

 

[AR182]

taoist...good to see you.....thanks.


2*u 49(120) pitt/ohio......i have read that wannstadt has really been on his defense to tighten up......also think he will try to run more in this game to keep his defense off the field.....solich also will try to run more than pass.

good luck.

 

[Blackman]

Like some of these unders -- and really like that trend you shared with us involving the Thursday games.

Best of luck this week and thanks for the information.

 

[AR182]

thanks blackman...

in addition to what i earlier posted...

2*u49 cal/wash.
2*u48(120)tex/osu

am also playing these.....

2*smu+17(120).....played this when line first came out....tcu won it's biggest game in over 40 years last week & play their very first mwc game next week vs. champion utah.....so i think a flat performance is possible this sat.....

here is an angle that supports this play....

play against any college football game 2 non-conference team who won su as a dd in game 1..

since 1980: 21-12 ats (63%).....play smu

here is another one for those interested......

game 2 home teams that have at least 17 returning starters seeking revenge are 20-2-1 ats (87%) if they either covered or lost to the spread by 10 or less points in game 1....

play....smu, wash. & mid. tenn. st.

2*wyoming-17 (120).....also played this early.....wyom. coach always has team ready to play....beat monroe last year at monroe 31-10 & outgained them 436-236 in yardage...bigger result this year.

2*toledo-21(120)......toledo has covered 5 straight home lined openers & is 25-1 ats in it's last 26 su wins against lined opponents.

2*u45 (120) wf/neb

2*u53 kst./marshall

2*penn. st.-17(120).....this may come back to haunt me but can't see psu not covering even with a qb who can't throw.....cin. has only 6 starters from both sides of the ball returning, 4 new offensive linemen, & a rookie qb who is making his first start on the road....psu has 18 starters returning.....cin.is 1-11 ats in their last 12 losses.

2*fla.-29...i know fla. has tenn. next week....but have been reading reports that urban wasn't too pleased with fla's. offensive showing last week....this is latech's first game of the season & return 9 starters from last year's team.....for the past few years la tech was a running team (moats) & this year they will be primarily a passing team..la tech is 1-10 as a dog in it's last 11 non conference games.....with fla. having a game under their belt in urban's system, i think this has all of the making of a blow out..even with tenn. up next.

good luck.

 

[cooz3]

good luck with the plays this weekend...some good angles...

cooz

 

[gardenweasel]

yeah...that penn st offense gives me indigestion,too....still,-17 at home...with central mich on deck....i have to give them the benefit of the doubt here.......

other than what i posted....and ohio st+1....i was looking hard at geo tech -12....i guess i`ve always felt that reggie ball was gonna break out at some point...and they have phillip daniels back to run the pill...he was fantastic in 2003...

most of the defense is back....and they have a serious revenge motive to consider here....

chan gailey`s ready for another 8 win year,imo...

and home against uconn isn`t what i`d call a gigantic look ahead...

whataya` think,ar?

 

[mw]

2*fla.-29...i know fla. has tenn. next week....but have been reading reports that urban wasn't too pleased with fla's. offensive showing last week.

Thanks for the tip. It looks like a good play to me if Meyer has something to prove.

 

[AR182]

thanks, guys....

gw,

no. car. still has no defense & is breaking in a new qb.however, g.t. beat auburn last week, could be flat for this game & ball still has to prove he is a consistent qb....so right now i have no decision.

 

[AR182]

adding all for 2*.....

u53 lsu/asu
u43 md/clemson
minn-13
so. car.+19(120)
u46 gt/n. car
temple+34


good luck.

 

[bigdad2]

Nice start to the season and looks like lots of solid picks... Any insight into Temple with the points? They have a brutal schedule and will be lucky to cover any game. Looking forward to your picks this year and good luck this season...