additional plays:
4*ohio+18(-160)--ou has a system where they could plug people in for the 1st. string & still perform well. case in point , eventhough ou's starting qb did not play last week, their #3 freshman qb took over & accounted for 4td's, and eventhough they were missing their starting runner, they still averaged over 5 yds. a rush last week. they shouldn't have any trouble running vs. kentucky this week. for the season, ou's option attack averaged 5.2 yppl against teams that allowed 5.1 yppl on defense. uk's defense allowed 5 yprp to teams that combined to average 4.7 yprp. uk's offense averaged 5yppl vs. teams that allow a combined 5.1yppl on defense. ou permitted 5.4 yppl to teams that combined to average 5.1 yppl on offense. so it doesn't appear that uk will score enough to cover the large line against a team that seems to be statistically even with them. ou is 11-4ats the last few years as a dd dog.
here is an interesting trend pertaining to this play:results for favorites(kentucky) which lost 2 of the previous 3 games, but won the other game by more than the combined losing margins, who are playing at home, & are favored by 7+ points are 69-95-3 ats(42.1%). will not be surprised if this game is close to the end.
2* auburn-19(-141)--many people think that this is flat spot for auburn, but i don't see it that way. not with the way auburn started the season. not counting the 1st two games this year, where the offense didn't score a td, auburn is averaging 5.5 yppl on offense vs. teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense. miss. st. allows 6.2 yppl on defense vs. teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense. on offense, msu averages 5.7yppl vs. teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense, & on defense, auburn allows 4.7 yppl vs. teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense.
msu is 2-6 ats on the road since last year(0-2 this year) & lost to lsu, the only other quality team they faced, 41-6.
a trend pertaining to this play states
lay against a conferense road dog of 21-23.5 pts. that is off a home ats win. since 1985 the ats record is 32-16-1(66%). play against miss. st.
2*so. carolina+5(-141)--this is a game where the home dog is rushing for more yards than the favored opponent. here is a trend that pertains to this play: teams that score 10 points or less in a loss as a home favorite of 3 points or more are 52-90-5 ats(36%), if they are are on the road in their next game. this game may be bumped up to a 4* play.
2*duke+11.5(-141)--wf, under their present coach are 3-8 ats as a favorite or pick, including 0-2 ats on the road. another trend: teams that lost straight up as a conference home favorite of 3 points or more are 46-80-6 ats(36.5%) as a road favorite of 3 points or more the next week.
2*tulsa-p(-110)--i like the fact that tulsa has only 3 turnovers in 5 div.1a games.
2*under 49.5(-150)purdue/ wisconsin
2*under 50(-150)ucla/ calif.
2*virginia+10.5(-150)--i think that virginia can keep this game very competitive.another trend that pertains to this play & a few others
lay against any 5-1 su team who suffered their first loss last week. play on a team that has a winning % that is greater than .332 & is getting up to 9 points. ats record is 34-11(76%)
play on:so. car.,iowa,virginia, & tex. a& m(if the line goes down)
good luck
