plays for 10/28-10/30

[AR182]

last week i posted an article about dd home dogs......here is this weeks article.......


In the weekly tracking of my theory that at this point in the season, despite all reason and logic in the matchups, the double-digit home underdog almost always covers going 21-5 against the spread over the previous three weeks, the favorite went 3-4 ATS this week with the most notable gaffes being Florida vs. Mississippi State and UAB vs. Tulane. Now the count is up to 25-8 ATS over the last month, so here are the ones to watch for this week (outside of Baylor over A&M, would any of these really be superstunners if the underdog won outright?) ...
- Texas -14 at Colorado
- Florida State -11 at Maryland
- Northern Illinois -20 at Ball State
- UTEP -15.5 at San Jose State
- Miami -21 at North Carolina
- Iowa -11 at Illinois
- Minnesota -17.5 at Indiana
- West Virginia -14 at Rutgers
- Auburn -17.5 at Ole Miss
- Oklahoma -13 at Oklahoma State
- USC -24 at Washington State
- Texas A&M -22 at Baylor
- Utah -16.5 at San Diego State

 

[Hailing Victor]

I really cant see the dog of Washington St beating USC or Ole Miss Beating Auburn or UTEP losing to San Jose ST.
BUT I can see the DD Home Dogs covering in these games.

I have really been watching this trend and wondered if you are taking into account the closing line of the game, because Northwestern will probably be a DD home dog by the end of the week, and Illinois probably won't.
Really gonna watch this trend though, Please keep up the good theory's.

 

[gardenweasel]

it`s hard to argue stats...and those stats are compelling.....

but,i,too think that utep may be a solid play this week...i wrote this game up on another site....

""utep-15.... just cracked the top 25...qb palmer(carson`s brother) gets better by the week.....jackson is a solid back.....mike price vs fitz hill is a huge mismatch...

the funny thing is that san jose has literally kicked el paso`s ass the last 3 years....qb scott rislov had alot to do with that...and he`s gone...some utep sr.`s have never beateb san jose...

you have an emerging club under price...incredible offensive balance at this level....

san jose is a program on the verge of being disbanded....ranked 117th in total defense...138th in scoring defense...

their qb has had basically one good game vs decent opposition....the rice game that was a total anomaly...the guy completed 10 passes for 358 yards and 5 t.d.`s....5 t.d.`s out of 10 completions!!!!!!....after they were behind by almost 30 points...they actually won this game....under some very strange circumstances...

his last 2 games i believe the guy threw for under 100 yards....san jose basically lives and dies with their running back thompson...their passing game ranks 125th in the ncaa....despite that huge game vs rice....

utep stops the run....especially at this level...

a bye next week for utep...revenge...just a much better club....balanced offense....qb mismatch..better coach....laying the wood on the road....i just don`t think the spartans can keep up with this hot miner offense...

it`s homecoming for san jose...but that doesn`t mean much when you don`t draw much over 5000 people for home games...

i believe being ranked should be a huge goose for the miners...""

i stumbled onto this as i was looking over stats....obviously,it can lose....more than 2 td`s on the road is substantial....

i really think being ranked in the top 25 is an enormous mental boost for a program like utep...and i don`t expect them to let up on the heels of getting ranked for the first time in who knows when....with a bye on deck...

g.l.,guys...

 

[AR182]

gw,

every time time i play a road favorite i get burned. so eventhough utep looks solid, i'm trying to stay away.


btw, i don't want anybody to think that i wrote about the dd home dogs.the above theory is from a columnist from college football news.

 

[Clem D]

Thanks for the post

 

[lostinamerica]

Sorry - wrong thread.

I enjoy your threads.

GL with your plays!!

 

[Irish]

AR
Good luck this weekend. Thanks for the info!

Cheers
Irish

 

[baltimore buc]

I already had the Illinois game circled. Thanks for the stats

 

[bej0101]

nice info, thanks

 

[GRIFFIN]

Was wondering if you had this years stats on DD Home Dogs and not just the last month?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Griffin,

When the author first started to track it this year, it was under the premise of "at this time of the year", take the double-digit dogs at home. The author also stated that he doesn't "invest" in college football for a number of reasons.

AR,

Have you looked into the long-term records of DD Conference Home Dogs. I think I started to when the article first came out (manually), but stopped when the records weren't far from 50% over the last 2-3 years. Just wondering if you looked at them through a database. I love that author, too. First thing I read on Tuesday mornings (After Dogs That Barks's diatribes)

Good Luck this weekend and keep kickin' in the contest

 

[AR182]

thanks for the props, guys. it's greatly appreciated.


bbc,

no i haven't looked at conference home dogs.but it's interesting that you brought it up.i'm not a computer person, i just know how to turn it on (lol).so anything i do will be manually.do you know where i can find this info ? if you don't want to tell me here, you can e-mail me or if you wish i can e-mail you.ans thanks for the props.

 

[AR182]

season record.......84-59....+24.29...

these 3 games i played sunday night......

4*c. mich.-6(115)......

i had c. mich. last week vs.a red hot toledo team & came away very impressed with the way they performed in that game losing 27-22. what impressed me with that performance was that c. mich. had more first downs, passing yards, & rushing yards than toledo & gained a total of 533 yards.

in this week's game, cmu appears to stronger on both sides of the ball than w. mich. on offense cmu likes to run the ball, they average 5.2 yds. per carry, but they do have a well balanced offensive attack.

on defense, w. mich allows 5.4 ypr. & has the worst pass defense in the nation. in their last 3 games, they gave up an incredible 1730 yards.

i project cmu to have close to 2x the rushing yards as wmu & feel that wmu will not be able to keep up with cmu. cmu should win by at least 2 tds.


2*calif.-13.5 (103).........

calif. is the most balanced & most potent offense in the country. they average 257 rushing yards & 254 passing yards per game. they have the #1 ranked defense in the pac 10 & held usc to under 300 toal yards on offense when they played.

last week asu allowed ucla to run for an incredible 7.2 yprp & don't have the offensive balance to keep up with calif.

under this coach asu is is 4-11 ats as a road dog.


2*troy-18.5 (103)......

this is idaho's 2nd long road trip in a row & this is their 7th road game in 9 weeks.they have had 17 freshmen in their line-up one time or another.

troy has one of the best defense's in the country & idaho has one of the worst offense's in the country

troy has played only one conference game at home so far & beat utah st. 49-21.this game shouldn't be that close.


good luck.

 

[RexBudler]

gl to you AR....Keep kicking some ass :clap:

 

[bbk]

Like the plays only thing I see if you posted troy and cal at 13.5 and 18.5 on sunday but now the lines are 15 and 23 to 24; i am on both of those teams but at 15 and 24 the value is not the same; what book gave you those lines because the 3 books i use never had those lines even on sunday night when i make a few plays. I am sure 99% of people that play those games wont get those lines; Thanks in advance

 

[AR182]

bbk,

bet those games at pinnacle.i post the lines that i put the games in.sometimes i buy points.

i bet a bunch of games that i like at first glance on sunday evening & hold it. there are times i bet back the other side & try to middle it.and sometimes i get caught on the wrong side as far as movements are concerned.

if that's not the proper way to post my plays, i would be glad to change the above post. it doesn't really matter to me.


good luck.

 

[MadJack]

ar182, please post your plays exactly like you bet them. that's the ONLY way to post.

appreciate your contributions.

jack@madjacksports.com

 

[boilermaker]

Come on AR, quit trying to confuse me. LOL. Just kidding buddy. Good Luck this weekend.

 

[bbk]

I was just wanting to know do you stil like the plays at the current number that almost everyone will have to play it; I like cal at 15 but love it at 13.5; i am on troy state too and if i could have gotten them at 18.5 i would have dumped alot on it; i just didnt know where you got those lines ; i will get on pinnacle sounds like they have some great lines.Thanks for the posts

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

thanks for the props, guys. it's greatly appreciated.


bbc,

no i haven't looked at conference home dogs.but it's interesting that you brought it up.i'm not a computer person, i just know how to turn it on (lol).so anything i do will be manually.do you know where i can find this info ? if you don't want to tell me here, you can e-mail me or if you wish i can e-mail you.ans thanks for the props.

I don't have a database, either. I usually just do it by hand with Phil Steele's annual (I can go back 8 years). If you look at MadJack's handicapper's guide here , the eighth link down has a site that has information on every college team for at least the last 10 years (under the team section)

Again, my quick and dirty approach showed that the DD conference dogs weren't all that valuable, but I didn't perform a complete analysis.