plays for 10/30-11/1

[AR182]

still wallowing in mediocrity. hopefully these plays will get me going:


4*so. fla.-2(-120)--so. fla.is winning their games because of their defense, not because of their offense. their def. is ranked #14 nationwide & yield 4.3 yppl to offenses that average 5.1 yppl. cin.offense is playing poorly & average 4.7 yppl to teams that allow an average of 5.5 yppl on defense.. so. fla.'s offense is not good either & average 4.2 yppl to teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense. cin. def. yields 4.6 yppl vs. teams that average 5 yppl on offense.
so. fla. plays very well at home: they are 5-0 ats off of a su loss, 9-2 ats in its last 11 as favorite & 30-2 su in its last 32 home games. they are 8-2 ats at home since going into div. 1a.
cin. is a very good dog team: they are 20-7 ats as a dog. but are 1-4 ats as a dog of less than 4 points.
i like the home team with their strong trends & being on national tv.

3*purdue-16(-138)--many people are praising n.western's upset win vs. wisc. last week. but wisc. was without their starting qb & their back-up couldn't take advantage of nw's very weak pass defense, that gives up 7.6 yppl to teams that average 6.6 yppl on offense. purdue's qb is putting up average numbers so far this year. but when he has played against similar type def to nw,(arizona & ill.)he has averaged 9 yppl on offense.nw's off. is nothing great--they are averaging 5yppl vs. teams that yield 5.2 yppl on def. purdue's def. is playing very well this year. they give up 4.3 yppl vs. teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense.
purdue has a history of beating up inferior opponents, going 14-3 ats when favored by 14+ points, with 9-1 ats in conferense play. they are 7-1 ats off b2b away games & 24-6 ats in last 30 home games under tiller.
nw is allowing an average of 36 ppg in their last 18 road games vs. winning teams. purdue is 16-0 su & 13-3 ats at home in conference play when they score 28 or more points.
my friend thinks this is a sucker bet. well, i have been called alot worse.


good luck

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL Buddy! I was looking at that SF game myself. Looks good.

HORNS

 

[ajoytoy]

gl AR!


toy

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

gl this week.

 

[AR182]

3*clemson+2(-125)--wf has lost the stat battle in every game they have played this year.in those 8 games they have been outgained by an average of 114 yds. per game. their running attack is - 64 ypg from last year. their passing attack has been very sporadic this year. their qb is averaging 148 yds. per game with a 5/7 td/int. rate. on the other hand, clemson is +68 ypg for the year. clemson has had 3 different receivers go over 100 yd. games this year & their running attack has picked up in the last 3 games by averaging 4.8 ypg. clemson is 8-2 ats as acc dog off a su win.

3*utah+4.5(-140)--this is another game with me taking the better balanced team.the utah qb hasn't thrown an int. this year out of 170 throws. his td/int. rate is 12/0. even with their top runner, don't think that utah will suffer since the back-up is averaging 5.4 ypc. we all know about the af option, but like wf, af's passing attack will not scare anyone, as was illustrated by the af qb completing 4-14 passes, with 2 ints. vs. col. state.
utah is 37-12-1 ats as a dog since 11/90 & 10-1 ats as a road dog vs. .600 or better teams. af has won last 3 straight as dogs & the dog in this series is 6-0 ats, with 5 su wins.

good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

g.l. ,ar1

g.l. ,ar1

 

[AR182]

i'll take the gift with so. fla.

a few more plays:

3*w.virginia-20(-120)--some people think that this is a letdown spot for w. virg. i don't see it that way because of the extra time they had to get over the vir. tech big win.a few weeks ago wvu's coach said that the team is close to the team that they had at the latter part of last season where they won 7 straight. i think with them having already 4 losses this year, i expect wvu to roll in this game vs. a team that allows an average of 207 rushing yards per game on the road this year.
here is something that i picked up from stat fox:

home favorites (WVU)...off of an upset victory of 10 or more points as a HOME DOG, are 30-10 after the first month of the season, since '92.

home favorites (WVU)...off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more, are 27-5 in the second half of the season, since '92.

4*so. miss.-20(-130)--this is another team i expect to start making their bowl push.ull has the type of defense that will make the so. miss. offense finally feel good about itself. on the road this year ull def. gives up about 40 points per game.in the previous 6 games between these two teams, so. miss has scored an average of 45 pts. per game. so. miss. is an incredible 25-2 ats when they score 35 or more points.

3*tex. tech-13(-130)--this might be the most entertaining game of the day. i usually don't like to lay many points with a team that has a weak defense, but tt is a completely different team at home than on the road.on the road tt gives up about 50 points per game, while at home they surrender about 21 pts. per game.while col. has a very good record as a dog of 13 or more, they do give up about 43 points per game on the road. at home tt is 17-1 ats in one game home stands, 45-4 ats in their last 49 home games, & 21-3 ats off of a su conference loss.

good luck

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

al always bol to you AL

 

[AR182]

a few more:

4*n. ill.-13.5(138)--i know that this game could be a flat spot for ni, but think that they will bounce back today against a team with a weak defense. prior to bsu beating toledo last week, bsu gave up 35, 42, 53 & 49 points in a dog roll. they give up about 200 yards per game in rushing yards at 5 yds. per carry & allow an average of 37 points per game on the road.

4*okla.-14(-130)---i know everybody likes okst., but everytime i think about this game i always come back to the okst/neb. game where osu scored 7 points. ou's defense is just as good, if not better than neb. & see ou keeping osu's offense under somewhat control. also osu has beaten ou the last 2 times, 7 think that ou will not call of the dogs if they take a big lead. also osu is 1-22 ats in su revenge losses.

good luck

 

[AR182]

3*under 50 wf/clemson---not sure why people are jumping on the over in this game.clemson scores an average of 20.3 & gives up 13.7 points on the road, while wf scores an average of 22.2 & gives up an average of 20 points a game,

3*wash. st.+12--wash. st has done well this year as a dog & think points are too much vs. usc with a defense that can be passed on.

good luck

 

[AR182]

final play for today:

4*under 54(-120)miami/vt--here is what i read at stat fox about the under in this game:

StatFox Super Situations favoring the game to go UNDER the total

There are 14 situations with a total rating of 32 stars.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - mistake prone team - 60+ penalty yards per game.
(266-174 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +74.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 75%).
(55-28 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.3%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - Any team against the total (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG).
(205-135 since 1992.) (60.3%, +56.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +17.4 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG).
(88-52 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.9%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - mistake prone team - 60+ penalty yards per game.
(266-174 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +74.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
(31-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +16.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - with an opportunistic defense -forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game.
(100-58 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.3%, +36.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - Any team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG).
(205-135 since 1992.) (60.3%, +56.5 units. Rating = 2*)
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +17.4 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56
(VIRGINIA TECH) - off a road loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(45-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season.
(39-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.6%, +20.3 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(29-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(49-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +23.7 units. Rating = 2*)

good luck

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

final play for today:

4*under 54(-120)miami/vt--here is what i read at stat fox about the under in this game:

StatFox Super Situations favoring the game to go UNDER the total

There are 14 situations with a total rating of 32 stars.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - mistake prone team - 60+ penalty yards per game.
(266-174 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +74.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 75%).
(55-28 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.3%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - Any team against the total (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG).
(205-135 since 1992.) (60.3%, +56.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +17.4 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG).
(88-52 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.9%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - mistake prone team - 60+ penalty yards per game.
(266-174 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +74.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
(31-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +16.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - with an opportunistic defense -forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game.
(100-58 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.3%, +36.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - Any team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG).
(205-135 since 1992.) (60.3%, +56.5 units. Rating = 2*)
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +17.4 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56

(VIRGINIA TECH) - off a road loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(45-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season.
(39-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.6%, +20.3 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(29-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (VIRGINIA TECH) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(49-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +23.7 units. Rating = 2*)

good luck

my eyes are bleeding....LOL!!:lol:
gl tonite.

 

[AR182]

tv,

i agree it was probably too much(lol).