plays for 11/20-11/21.....

[AR182]

it seems like carolina is a popular pick today....

here is a system that i read that states the bears are the side.....hope it doesn't offend anybody & that some find this interesting.....




SYSTEM
of the
WEEK



After week 4, the league is 0-23-1 ATS since 1989 as an away favorite
of less than six points on Sunday over a non-divisional opponent
when the total is less than 44 and at least 5 points fewer than their
season-to-date average OU line.

SYSTEM ANALYSIS

This week?s system involves a team playing a
game in which the OU line is at least five points
lower than last week?s OU line. What this means
is that the team is playing a much more defense-
oriented team than average. Prior to this week,
the average OU line in Panthers? games has been
41.5. Here is will be about 34.

In addition to the unusually low OU line, the
other conditions are that the team is a road favorite
by less than six points over a non-divisional
opponent and the OU line is less than 44.

Teams in this situation are 0-23-1 ATS since
the start of the 1989 season and it could be better
than this because 1989 is as far back as the
database goes at ********!

This system has already produced a winner
this season. It was Tampa Bay that was in this
situation in week 5 and they lost outright to the
Jets 14-12. The Bucs joined a long list of straight
up losers in this situation. Since 1989 teams are
only 2-22 SU in this situation despite being
favored by 1-6 points!

It appears that teams that have had success
(they are after all, a road favorite) have difficulty
vs a team that will patiently play a conservative
game and wait for a mistake.

This system indicates a play on the Bears plus
the points over the Panthers.

good luck.

 

[loophole]

a lot of stat trends favoring the bears today. here's some more i read from one of the more articulate net handicappers:



On to a situation that I will be using this weekend and have used quite often in the past with great success. Teams that enjoy a long period of success, winning multiple games over an extended period of time, usually run into trouble when they play on the road. In fact, teams who have won and covered at least three straight games and then go on the road are just 129-165-11 43.90% since 1983. If we make sure our play against road team isn?t coming off a bye week, they are just 116-155-10 42.80%. We can greatly improve our chances if we request they are going on the road against a winning team, which brings the record to 32-70-5 31.40%. If we add one last parameter, which is our play against team isn?t off any bye weeks at all during their current three game winning streak, the record falls to just 28-63-4 30.80%.


Again, our simple situation is to simply play against any road team coming off of three straight wins and covers, if they weren?t on a bye week during that win streak and now facing a winning team. By playing against these road teams and on these winning home teams, you would have gone 63-28-4 69.20% since 1983.


There is one play on the board this week, which is the Chicago Bears +2.5



now i see the bears have gone to +3 and the panthers are still drawing more that 80% of the public money. i don't see how i could pass on the bears.


g/l

 

[AR182]

37-28 +13.50*


i'm very cold in the nfl...but will keep plugging away....


5*dallas-7(120)....

in surfing the net & reading articles on this game i noticed that detroit is a popular side in this game.....cappers & columnists cite that dallas is going to be flat today & may even be practicing for the denver game on thanksgiving & over looking the lions.....i don't believe that to be true...one reason is that although the denver game is on national tv, beating the lions is more important than beating the broncos....simply because detroit is in conference & denver is not.....conference wins is one of the tie breakers in determining playoff seating....another reason why i don't think dallas will be flat is that parcells is a great motivator & on tuesday he started out by hanging a giant mouse trap on one of the rafters in dallas stadium......finally prior to the philly game, dallas held 5 straight foes to a single td & after their poor showing vs, the eagles, i think that the defense will be up for the lions, while the offense should have good success in moving the ball against an injured detroit defense....

please disregard the above if my analysis is completely wrong.........(lol).

 

[Buck i]

Good Stuff! :clap:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it....

although i posted that system on the bears....i have no opinion on the game....


loophole.....

hope you read this...

in k.c.wolf's thread you mentioned a book that you read.....do you happen to remember the name of it ?.....i may be interested in reading it if you did.......

thanks

 

[trolln4walii]

GL today AR. Hate to buck a system like that! Being a Bear fan I wouldn't be upset if the Bears won (just hope they don't lose by 1 or 2)

Congrats on another strong day with the college kids yesterday :mj14:

 

[loophole]

whaaaa???? you have no opinion on the bears ------i just bet my whole...........wait a minute....

never mind.

 

[AR182]

adding.....

1*u41(120) jets/denver

1*cin.+6(120)

cin.'s ofense is just 7 yds. per game worse than indy & their defense yields 3 points per game more than indy's defense.....points worth taking...


good luck.

 

[GENO]

AR especially at home on grass with the 72 Dolphins Champaign in the cooler !

 

[AR182]

i don't usually gripe about losing a play & the play was for a small amount......but i think some of the play calling by cin. was horrible......

there was a situation in the 3rd qtr with cin. trailing by 8 points & they were on about indy's 35-40 yards line.....it was 3rd & about 2....cin. tried to throw an in pass to johnson that was incomplete.....so 4th & 2... they try a pitch-out wide that came about 1/2 yards short......i said it right away that cin. should have run straight at indy's fast, but light defensive front..twice....that is where i think the cin. backers lost the cover....

 

[AR182]

mnf....

3*g.b.-3(129)......

got this when the lines first came out.....but would still like them up to 7.....

minn. is coming off a miraculous win vs. the giants last week, where they wer severly out gained 405-137 yards....before that lucky win vs. the giants, minn.lost their other 4 road games by 25,25,20,& 29 points.....on the other hand, despite their poor record(2-7), g.b. has out gained 6 consecutive opponents....imo, the pack will be very crisp tonight & will revenge them getting knocked out of the playoffs last year by minn....

here is some info that you may find interesting...

since 1995, teams coming off an upset win as a dd dog & the opponent played their previous game on the road is......6-14-2 ats (30%)...

play against minn....

here is another angle that is similar to the above....

play against any away dog of 10 or less points who is off a su win as a 7 or more point dog & they are playing a team off su win....25-8 ats (76%)....

play against minn....

good luck.

 

[MrChristo]

Great stuff yesterday, AR....Certainly looking towards GB today.

And, yep...Cinci, ay?? Like you said, 2 silly play calls with a ton of time to go, but then kick a FG, 11 down with under 2 minutes to play??
Didn't make a lot of sence to me.

Good luck today. :toast:

 

[Buck i]

AR182,

Thanks for that incredible stat, please keep em coming!!! :hail