Plays for 7.10.04

CrazyHorse

giveit2 21
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Nov 29, 2000
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at work, will update ytd tonite..

TOR +100 100/100

Lilly has given up 2 ER's or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Escobar has given up 3 or more ER's in his last 4 and has always been a better pitcher outdoors on grass. Salmon has the best #'s vs Lilly (.333 in 12 AB) and he will not be playing. Toronto hitting much better of late and think they bounce back after a loss when they had their ace pitching.

ARZ +130 100/130

Webb has really done well in the past 6 weeks after a slow start to the season. He now has given up 2 ER's or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Also he has a career 3.18 ERAvs SF, holding current Giant hitters to a .190 AVG in 79 AB''s. Tomko has mixed in a few good starts with mostly bad starts and sports a 5.32 ERA, 1.62WHIP, and .301 BAVG against. He does have a 3.76 ERA vs ARZ but current Diamondback hitters are batting .346 vs him. I do worry the Arz pen is overworked and the Giants are 6-0 w/ the listed ump. However I like the pitching matchup and if Webb can go 6+ inning think they can win this one.

CHC/STLo8.5 105/100

Might be looking too much at pitch counts and ump info but based on that it looks like a solid over. Clement is off 123 pitches on 7/5 and b2b 100+ on 4 days rest. Suppan is off 5 days rest but now has 3 straight 100+ outings. Also listed ump is a pretty consistent over ump. The over is 7-3 his last 10 behind the plate in STL games and 8-2 over his last 10 in cubs games where he was behind the plate. Looking at the consistent low ER's each pitcher has given up makes me very wary of playing any over with these 2 but feel the ump and pitch count factor warrant a play.

PIT/MONo8.5 115/100

Don't see any reasons why the Pirates can't get to Biddle who is making his 1st start after pitching in relief only this year. Montreal pen also very overworked after series w/ ATL and Pitt scoring a bunch on them so far. Wells' has pitched very well for Pittsburgh but is coming off 127 pitches on 4 days rest. Listed ump is 10-6 over this yr with a low k%.

Strong lean to TB +170 as Lieber has given up too many ER's and Quantrill and Rivera may be unavailable today. Brazleton pitching very well also. I will post if here if I decide to play it. GL to all today!
 
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CrazyHorse

giveit2 21
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Nov 29, 2000
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Atlanta GA
buying back the Montreal over..line has moved to +110 for the under so this one will be a wash..

MONu8.5 (+110) 100/110

Just saw at mlb.com that there is an 18 mph wind straight in from ctr. Watched 2 of the ATL/MON games and noticed how much the wind really affects the game down there. Not that the site is 100% accurate and the wind direction can obviously change as the game goes on but this was the weakest lean of all my plays and the weather report is enough to get me off it.
 

KsYaS

Soy Puro Cabron
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2002
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covers.com shows a 14 mph wind , and some stats about the wind, the over/under record is 4/9 when the wind is 10-20 mph! :D, just trying to help :D
 

CrazyHorse

giveit2 21
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Nov 29, 2000
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thanks for the info KsYaS!

But I use mlb for my weather reports and often have problems when I go by covers weather. The way my luck has been going this one will probably go over by the 3rd inning. When I made the play I knew I was going to check weather before the game as this was the one play I was close to not making a play on. GL!
 
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