plays for 8/12 - 8/16

A

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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Scottsdale,AZ
i haven't finalized my plays yet........

one play that i did like was virginia but a system applies against them that went 2-0 last week.

it says..........

teams playing the 4th straight home game.......

that were favored in the 1st 3 games.......

1994-2004.....ats record is 4-14 (22.2%)

last week the plays were against okla. & tenn.

this week the play is against virginia.



since i originally liked virginia.....i'm not going to change sides.....so virginia is a no bet for me.


good luck.
 
Irish

Irish

Green&Orange
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Jan 8, 2004
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What does that trend say even if the 4th home game comes after an off week? Just Curious....I'm going to ride UVA.

GL
Irish
 
A

AR182

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Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
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Scottsdale,AZ
season record.....45-32 +22.13*


3* teaser

so. miss.-10
under 55


i like so. miss. tonight to win this game but am not sure that they have enough weapons on offense to win by 3 scores. they have a good rushing attack averaging 171 yds. per game & have the usual tough defense, that's strength is a very good pass defense, but will give up yards on the ground.they also are +10 in take-aways in 3 games.

so. miss. is 19-10 ATS as home favorites.

houston doesn't have the high powered offense from last year. their top rusher, evans will be out this game & lost their top receiver, middleton to graduation. they are averaging 16 points per game & 340 tds. per game. their rushing defense is allowing 235 yds per game.houston's only win was vs. army.

here is an angle that supports so. miss.....

play on a home team after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, when playing on a Thursday.

ats record is 30-9... 76.9% over the last 10 yrs.

so. miss. is 3-16 o/u following a road game & 1-6 o/u with less than 6 days of rest.

an angle that supports the under........

play under on a team that is off a close win by 7 pts. or less(so. miss.)over a conference rival vs. an opponent off a blow out loss of 21 or more points to a conference rival.

ats. record is 22-4...84.6% over last 5 yrs.



good luck.
 
A

AR182

Registered User
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Nov 9, 2000
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thanks, taoist.good luck to you also.


didn't start out the week too well with the so. miss/under teaser. hopefully these plays will have better results..............


2.5*rice-13..........

the only reason that i can explain why the line keeps droping is because the rice qb may not play.imo, that's not important with the type of offense that rice plays.smu defense allows 184 rushing yards per game. i have rice rushing for well over 300 yards in this game & i think that they control the game.also rice is 12-2-1 ats in last 15 conference games.

2.5*nw-10(120).............

the su winner in this series is 20-0 ats. nw is much stronger on both lines & should control the game & like rice they should have a very large edge in the rushing dep't.
an angle that supports this play.....teams that win su as a dog of 3 points or more are 53-15-2 (77.9%) when they play at home in the next game vs.a team with a winning record of .500 or worse.

2.5*miami ohio-16.5(127)........

took this very early in the week.imo, this is a total mismatch.

2.5*wash.-16.5(120)........

what san jose did last week was a freak of nature.
they are a depleted team that has lost on the road to smu by 23 points & stanford by 40.wash. should forbid their coach access to the lockeroom if wash. does not win this gamr by 3td's.

2.5*fresno st.-16.5(118)........

i may be the only person on the net taking fresno in this game. fresno lost as a double digit favorite last week & utep pitched a shutout....those are 2 reasons why i like fresno.

2.5*vandy-6..........

imo, vandy is under rated & rutgers is over rated.

the rest are for 2*..........................

kan.st.-2
az.+11.5
buffalo+11
ul laf.-2.5
lsu+4
w.f.+6
penn. st.+11.5
n. mex.+4(120)

good luck.
 
trolln4walii

trolln4walii

shorelunchne1
Forum Member
Jul 11, 2004
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GL to you tomorrow AR. Really like Vandy and ULL. Was considering NW and after reading those stats I just may be nudged :)

Other thing I like about your card is I'm only butting heads on one play (and I have Kan +3- so if K-st can win by three :) Hope you sweep the board!!
 
A

AR182

Registered User
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Nov 9, 2000
18,654
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Scottsdale,AZ
adding.......

2*col.+7............

play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (okla. st.) that outrushes their opponents by 100 or more yards per game on the season after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game....

last 5 seasons.....24-2 ats (92.3%)


good luck.
 
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