Plays for Sat. Nov. 15th!

[ND2002HORNS]

YTD 137-112-2 +29.03 Units

A couple of things to keep in mind this week when capping. One is teams looking to become bowl eligible. This could be a winning proposition on the ML for a few teams. I started a thread on this so take a scroll down and take a look. As well, I find late in the season when a top ranked team loses a game they still have problems next time out and don't rebound as easy as some think. Teams that are peaking at the right time is another profitable proposition as I like to take teams that are peaking and are dogs or small favs. Usually at this time of year you can find some nice ML on dogs. Last week many nice ML hit and here they are : NW +201, UNC +290, Duke +450, Ole Miss +295, Clemson +950, Tennessee +490, Arizona +570. I would like to hear everyones thoughts on possible nice ML dog winners this week. Post your thoughts here. I am looking for every possible edge.

Lastly, many highly ranked teams are coming off bye weeks. Some of them will come out hitting on all cylinders and others will come out flat as they have a bigger game the following week. Here are some of the teams coming off bye weeks: Michigan(NW but OSU next week), Florida(South Carolina but FSU next week), LSU(Alabama but Ole Miss next week), Georgia(Auburn but only Kentucky next week) and USC(Arizona but UCLA next week).
Kentucky and BYU are off bye weeks as well.

Here are my ML dog leans:
Purdue, EMU, Vandy, Cincy, Nevada, Wash, Toledo & AF.
The way G.Tech and WF played last week I have to believe they play better at home this week as one more win will make them bowl eligible. I will take a look a favs on the ML later when the ML are released.

Back in a bit with a few plays.

HORNS

 

[buckeye fan]

really like the value you are getting with EMU, Purdue, Toledo, and Nevada..

Hawaii cannot play on the road... everyone knows my bucks are liable to fall any given week, although i think they squeak it out before going up north. EMU had a good week last week and i like them again this week at leat +points, Toledo has a serious home field adavantage in the glass bowl, and i think that NIU may be a bit overated? When I saw the post I must admit that I couldnt have agreed more with the majority of your posted looks at ML's. Those are my top 4 of the ones you posted.. good luck

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks for replying buckeye fan. It is nice to see an objective OSU fan. You are right, OSU finds ways to win at home whereas on the road they are more vulnerable. All the best this week!

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Playing:

Duke +14*
Yes this is most likely a public dog but I have to take the points. Clemson has been so inconsistent this year. Beating G.Tech on the road by 30 or so and then getting pounded by WF on the road. They beat Virginia at home and of course now FSU. I think Clemson has a big letdown this week. Duke has played inspired football the last few weeks with a quality win against G.Tech and played the Vols tough for three quarters and we actually down 9-6 going into the 4th Q until the Vols scored 2 TD's. I think Duke stays inside the number with the Tigers having a trip up to Columbia to meet their in-state rivals. I think this is a prime sandwich game.

LSU -6.5**
Tigers are coming off their bye week while Alabama had an easy win last week. I believe this line was affected by the Tide's easy win and the fact LSU did not play. Alabama has the almighty Auburn game on deck and a win at Auburn would make the Tide's season. Tigers know what is at stake here with the BCS standings and a showdown with Ole Miss looming for the SEC West title on the line. I look for a 2 TD win for the Tigers in preparation for the SEC West showdown the following week.

Nebraska +1.5*
Huskers getting points at home, I will take them against an average Wildcats team. This Wildcats team showed us all again this year that when the chips are down they fold. No quality wins this year. Huskers are a tough home squad regardless of their team. Sure they are one dimensional on offense but I think their defense will be the difference. Like Master Capper mentioned the Sagarin ratings have this line off as well by 5pts. Wildcats are terrible at stopping the run when facing a quality opponent. I normally don't bet on the Huskers but this line looks odd to me, I really believe Vegas is tying to make the public think K.St. is the better team and they want money on both teams. Just like last weeks scenario(Ole Miss an Auburn), an unranked team favoured over a ranked team. But this time the road team is favoured. Nebraska by 4pts.

Other leans are Florida, EMU, NC St., Vir. and Vandy. Is this Missouri line off? I wonder if it is inflated with A&M getting hammered so bad last week. Thoughts????

GLTA!

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Possible ML plays(line from Pinnacle)

Purdue +133
EMU +375
Vandy +226
Nevada +138
Wash. +209
Toledo +123
AF +160
Cincy +228

Longshot Stanford +475!!!!

Thoughts??

HORNS

 

[scott]

do you think that the longhorns can cover at -15.5 in Austin the as good as they have been playing? They may score 60 pts on techs defense, and this will be the best defense that tech has seen all year. Texas should have some interceptions in this one. Plus there is also the revenge factor from last year.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Slight lean to Texas as the weakness has been defending the run and Tech can't run the ball with any consistency as they are a pass oriented offense. Horns should defend the pass well and they shut down a great offense this past Saturday in Oklahoma St. Revenge factor like you mentioned will measure in. Texas has been tough at home with their only loss to Arkansas. Tech have come back on a few teams this year in the 4th Q when the game was more than over. I think back to the T.Tech/Okl. St. game when the Cowboys were up by 30 going into the 4th Q. but only won by 3. The only thing I worry about a bit is a back door cover. Hope this helps.

HORNS

 

[ajoytoy]

gl Horns!

what, no NCSU ML???

 

[CWood97]

Leaning towards Purdue also Horns. I'd hate to see them screw up a potential top five matchup for the Big Ten title on November 21st, but I think it might be too much for OSU to get up for another big game with Michigan on the horizon.

 

[bamachuck23]

ND2002HORNS,

I really like Cincy +228 with the ML.

I am a little concerned about the LSU/Bama game. After a sound drubbing against the "powerful" Mississippi State University Technical Community Junior College, I feel they might have a little bit of confidence going into this game. Bama seems to always play tough at home, case in point, Oklahoma this year. If you recall, if OUwould not have converted on that fake punt late in the second half...well, let's just say, we might not have an undefeated team at #1. 6.5 points just seems like too much at Bryant Denney. It should be a great game, but I will have to stay away from it.

GL2A

 

[Cie]

Horns

I really like the LSU pick. The players need not be reminded what happened after their last bye week. These guys are ready. The young LSU secondary is playing better as a unit, the O Line and D Line received some much needed rest, Mauck and his receivers are clicking, and the Tigers are at full strength at TB for the first time in weeks.

LSU 31 Bama 13

GL:weed:

 

[THE WIZZARD]

GL THIS WEEK HORNY.


WIZZ.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

Florida - ML(-272)**
Gators are coming off their bye week and have FSU on deck. Gators have won 4 in a row and won at two tough places in LSU and Ark. They need this win to remain in contention for a possible spot in the SEC CG. They won't get caught looking ahead. Meanwhile with SC losing RB Summers this will limit an offense that already has troubles. QB Pinkens has been inconsistent all year. Now that he has lost his big playmaker I think the Gamecocks have all sorts of trouble scoring. Sure SC is 5-0 at home but the only quality win was against Virginia. The beat Vandy, UAB, Kentucky and La-Laf. They are 0-5 on the road and their last few games have not looked good at all. No team play for SC and I think the Gators can cover the 7 on the road but I took the safe way as there is no way they lose this one.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

EMU +10*
Much better effort for EMU last week in their win after firing their coach. Ball St. playing their 3rd straight road game. Ball St. is 1-4 on the road and have lost 3 of last 4. Going to play this one small and think EMU gets the job done at home.

Other lean, LSU under, Missouri over, NC St. +14 and Florida under.

HORNS

 

[The Big Tease]

I know this is the typical homer response....but trust me when I say that Ohio State is up for this game. This is Senior Day for a lot of guys that were key to last years title. Ohio State got a big boost this week to see that they are number 3 in the BCS, and in that last home game, they should be ready to go. With that being said....this is the most balanced team we have faced all year and one I have been fearing all year. It is a no-play for me, especially at a field goal.

 

[taoist]

Horns,

...take a look at Memphis this week.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks taoist, I will take a look. Do you have any insight on the Memphis game?

As for OSU, the more I look at that game the more I think I will stay away. Purdue is not a great road team and OSU always finds a way to win at home and any home team is worth a call or two going their way so I will watch hoping that OSU wins so it sets up next weekends game with Michigan as another potential classic!

HORNS

 

[NY Reb]

You have a keen eye for big games early in the week. Your plays always look so strong. Best of luck, Horns!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks Reb! I always watch for your plays each week as you post solid info and analysis.

I talk with several people around the country during the week to find out anything to give me an edge. Sometimes it pays off and other times is flat out blows. Overall I am ahead and that is all you can ask for.

Adding:

Miami, OH -12.5(-108)(1/2 Unit)
Going against most people on this board. Weather could be a factor tonight as pointed out by a few people. Just playing it small.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

Mar./MOH u57(-120)(1/2 Unit)
I bought the .5 pt. on the total. When I first looked at this game I thought with Marshall avg. 32 pts. and MOH avg. 39 pts. on offense that it would go over. But both teams do not give up pts. the way they put them up and one thing I have noticed when two of the better teams in the MAC meet this year it, both teams come up with one of their better defensive efforts. Case in point, NIU/BG and BG/MOH. Going to bite on the under and the winds and rain will only help this total. Again just playing small as I have not done as much research on this game as others.

HORNS