Plays for Saturday

[Nickelback]

Still capping games, but feel like I have a good enough start to begin posting what I have. As it turns out, they are all home teams for now:

Best Bet: Alabama laying 1 over Kentucky. . . please read Wizzard's thread if you want my reasons for playing this one. Basically, Bama is undefeated at home, they need this win, and they have won the last six straight ATS against Kentucky. That's enough for me to make this one a top play.

Rest are average plays for the time being. . . still have work to do on a few of these:

Temple +1 over Dayton. . . Temple has won the last six
Boston College ML over Notre Dame. . . home teams have won the last six but will play this small
UConn laying 7 over Nova. . . they should dominate
St. Louis +1.5 over Memphis.. . . would play this big except I'm concerned that Memphis will have a huge rebounding advantage.

Very premature for now. . .but these are what I'm looking at. Bama is the only bet locked in.

 

[THE WIZZARD]

I'M LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF THOSE MYSELF ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF OTHERS............GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND AND...........


GO TIDE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!



WIZZ.

 

[I'm Storming]

UCONN

UCONN

They should dominate? How do you figure that...?

 

[Nickelback]

Forgot Tennessee +the points. . . I want to see what Volfan has to say about this one as he is pretty good about playing his team with his head and not his heart.

Speaking of playing one's own team, let's talk about Arizona/Kansas for a minute. Thought it would be good for me to stay away from this one, but who has Kansas beaten that is any good? Wins over UCLA, Cal, Nebraska, Iowa State. . . losses against Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, and Colorado. Now where would you place Arizona among these two groups? My opinion and supported by the Colorado game and several others is that Kansas DOES NOT play defense. If they played any against the Buffs, they would have won that game even though they did not shoot the ball well from the field.

Arizona is a false #1 right now. . . I'll be the first to admit it. . . they play some of the best ball at times, then look average the next minute. A good indication of this is against ASU where they played what I felt was their best first half defensively all season long, then sat back and allowed ASU to shoot their way back in the game. May have been lack of motivation, but I have yet to see this team play an entire game except for their very first against Western Kentucky! Only game that comes close is at Oregon which I felt was an incredible win given how Oregon was shooting the ball.

I must concede a point: If I was a neutral party, I would play Kansas as it looks like a shady line. Will not surprise me to see Volfan, GMoney, Wizzard, etc. on Kansas. However, I would certainly not play them big after looking into their wins/losses and schedule. This team beats the crap out of decent teams because of their explosiveness, yet struggle against teams that are up a notch. The reason is these other teams know how to handle the Jayhawks speed and aggressiveness. Arizona loves to play this style as well. Should be a very exciting game with a ton of points scored by both sides. The winner could break the 100s. Carib doesn't have the MLs up yet, but I'll take a close look at this one, watch how the line moves including wise guys and may in the end play my Arizona team on the ML for a very small play. Problem is that I will be going with around 75% of the other cappers which again leads me to believe that Kansas is probably the right side. Just one of those games where I'll have to see it to believe it I suppose.

Ok, back to capping the rest.

 

[Nickelback]

Looking forward to the rest of your plays Wizzard. . . its difficult to cap every single game on a card like Saturdays so I rely heavily on the great cappers here to show me which games I've missed.

 

[Nickelback]

Here's one that I missed but not countinguy:

Purdue laying 3 over Indiana. . . system play. . . looked right over it as I didn't think we had any for Saturday. Still looking into it to decide just how heavy I play it, but certainly an average play at the very worst.

 

[Nickelback]

I'm Storming,

UConn hasn't lost a game at home. . . Nova is only 50% on the road. UConn lost two heartbreakers on the road and need to win this game.

 

[tony steams]

Nickelback

Nickelback

What are your thoughts on St. John? I'm really liking it at -1.5. VT coming off their huge upset over Virginia should come back down to earth. Also, I like Zona tomorrow as well. My brother attends U of A and I follow the Cats closely. I have a good feeling they may even win outright. But like you've said, from a neutral perspective, the public may go with Kansas so I'm hoping the line will move up then and i'll take zona.


GL

 

[Nickelback]

Couple things Tony,

I believe the public will be all over Arizona. . . couple consensus sites already have the public on the Cats at 75%. That spells bad news in my opinion for us if we go with Arizona.

I think St. Johns is the right side, but I'm not sure if I'll be on it. Difficult to predict how Tech will react after their win over the Cavs. I would assume letdown, but difficult to determine.

 

[G Money]

Good luck, I hope we have a big day :spotting:

 

[Nickelback]

Let's try and put these in order:

3 Top plays:

Bama laying 1 over Kentucky. . . line is up to 2 at Carib.
Purdue laying 3 over Indiana. . . system play
Georgia laying 8.5 over Auburn. . . liked this one from the start. . . Volfan helped me push this one up to a big play.

The rest in order:

Boston College +3 over Notre Dame. . . bought the half point as I will always take the key number 3 over 2.5. Thought I was going to play the ML, but will take what I hope needless points.

Temple +1 over Dayton. .. as already stated, Temple has won the last six meetings. Like them at home.

Georgetown +11 over Pitt. . . think Pitt is the only team that I've lost money on this year on a constant basis. Meaning that I've played against them several times this year and lost. . . the one shining moment being the Rutgers cover. Lets see what happens today.

Still have others to add and looking at St. Louis and UConn.

 

[Nickelback]

Was just gonna play Purdue, it bumped up to 3.5. . . scratch laying the points. . . I have the ML at 145 which is a great number IMO and I'm pounding that instead of laying the points.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding St Johns laying 3. . . scratch UConn. . .

Arizona game looking ugly. . . what I want to know is whether Kansas can keep up this pace all game long?

 

[michaeljbird]

Nickel, hey bro, why the change on UConn? I'm looking for the full throttle chubb there

 

[Nickelback]

mj,

Line just looks funny to me for some reason. . .

Adding Arizona laying 2.5 second half BIG. . . think I'm playing with my head here as Kansas isn't as deep and can't miss a shot. Law of averages should work in Arizona's favor in the 2nd half. Also think Arizona comes out a little more composed. BGold indicated the full court press. . . think that's a possibility as well in order to run Kansas's starting five. Also expect to see Arizona get to the foul line a lot more the 2nd half and hopefully they hit a nice % to get close in this game.

 

[michaeljbird]

Line looks funny? Uh Oh. Confucious say

"Laughing may make you lose your CHUBBY":SIB

 

[Nickelback]

Ok Arizona, you are officially my team again after I almost dropped you at the half

Just imagine if this team played two solid halves. .. they could beat any team in the country by 30.

 

[G Money]

Great call on the Arizona 2nd half. They proved they deserve to be #1

 

[Nickelback]

Final plays for tonight:

USC +7 BIG over Stanford
Hofstra +11.5 BIG over Drexel
Tennessee +5.5 over Kentucky
Baylor +5.5 over Oklahoma

GL all!

 

[G Money]

Great call on Purdue. :spotting: :spotting: :spotting: