Plays for Week 6

thom24ad

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Sep 29, 2005
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YTD
NCAA 15-11-3
NFL 18--8-1
Total 33-19-4

Ended up getting pretty wasted last Friday Night...long story short was up until 8:30am drinking...Therefore I was incapacitated:SIB and didn't get a chance to put in my plays...With my luck it was a decent card too but it only counts if you play'em:sadwave: ...the weeknight games have been getting me so I'm still sticking to Saturday and Sunday...

These are all games I've already played:

119 Clemson @
120 Wake Forest +17

Wake Forest +17

- I got this game off of the forum and I want to thank those who pointed it out to me. I was looking for a good dog this week and I believe I found it. Even though Clemson has outscored their last two opponents 103-7; I like Wake. These two teams know each other very well and I think the 17 points is a bit high.

Both sides have some significant injuries. Clemson's Stuckley is out whom lead the ACC in RECs last season. Clemson is a little beat up on the defensive too but Hamlin returns for the secondary but there are questions on how much he'll play. For Wake, Andrews their talented RB will be out but Bryant has looked good so far averaging 4.7 ypc.

Clemson is 3-11-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings, Wake is 3-0 ATS in the last three games with the Tigers. In the past 10 years the line has only been double digits twice. In 7 of the last 10 games the winning margin wasn't more than 11.

I could be getting in front of a freight train with the way Clemson has been blowing out the last couple teams but I have to think Wake will give Clemson better competition. IMO Clemson isn't a that great of a road team and they're 8-12 SU the last four years on the road. I know Wake hasn't really played anyone and that is the reason why they're 5-0 but I just like the fact that they are undefeated going into a game as double digit home dog playing a team they see every year. I tend to think being a 17 point underdog to a team they beat last year has Wake a little pissed. I do have Clemson winning this one but I think Wake can keep it respectable.
 
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thom24ad

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131 ARK @
132 Auburn -15.5

Auburn -15.5

-This one should be simple even though I said the same when Auburn played last week. Auburn is 3-0 ATS the last three years. Since 94' ARK is 8-12-1 ATS following a bye while the home team is 8-4 ATS in this series. Auburn the last three years is 9-2-1 ATS as a SEC home favorite.

You have a young QB on the road in front of 85,000 people playing the #2 team in the country. Auburn is really going to have to be physical up front and control the O-line to shut down McFadden. If they're able to this and force 3rd and longs; it will be a long night for Mustang.

Other notables is you have a true freshman facing a defense that has allowed on average of 8 points at home this season. ARK's D has allowed 6.5 YPR against an offense that is averaging 4.6 YPR and not to mention on aveage ARK (20.9)allows more points then they score (19.7). I expect to see a score similar to ARKs first game of the season.




As soon as I can get it done I'll have write-ups on:
S. Carolina -7
LSU -1.5 (-130)
LSU +1.5

:mj06:
 
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thom24ad

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Thx TP...

I got screwed on the LSU -1.5 even bought a point...:banghead:

Doubled down on LSU +1.5

I should have something on South Carolina and LSU tonight...
 

ThrowinPicks

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Gl buddy. I can dig the SC bet. Still on the fence with LSU. I think Fla matches up well with homefield being a bonus.
 

thom24ad

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Thanks guys...

Another dog wins last night...I started my spreadsheet last night so I could get a look at the numbers for a dogs on a weeknight etc...Still haven't had the time to do my write-up for LSU and SC...leaning on the TENN/GEO Under but haven't pulled the trigger...
 

thom24ad

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Once again a dog on a weeknight pulls out the cover...didn't have time the last couple days to work on my spreadsheet for weeknight games this year...I'm getting ready to go down for the OSU game so I don't have time to write much...

149 LSU @
150 Florida

LSU +1.5/-1.5

-I will very blunt:weed:about this game. I am not a fan of Chris Leak. If Florida losses this season it will be his fault. I love this defense for LSU and I look for them to control the game. The home team is 3-11 ATS the last 14 years in this series. LSU shut the Gators down last year and I look for the Tigers to win their 3rd straight against Florida. Today LSU proves why they are a top 5 team. I look for LSU to pull it out in the fourth and to capitalize off of Leak's mistakes.

171 South Carolina @
172 Kentucky +7

South Carolina -7

-Wish I would have waited on this one and got the line at 5/5.5. South Carolina has not been that great of a road team but against this defense I have to go with SC. I look for Newton to be able to get in a grove against this defense and score some points. The home team 4-10 ATS in this game and Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky. Sidney Rice should have a nice game tonight as well. I think the Gamecocks cover this one pretty easily. I may double up on this game tonight. This is one of my favorite games this week.

189 Tenn @
190 Georgia +3

Under 38

-I don't really like the game itself but I think points will be a premium in a defensive battle. I usually don't play too many totals but this is a game that stood out to me as low scoring.

191 Oregon @
192 California -4.5

Over 61

- Another total that stood out to me was this game. 61 could be a bit high but looking for a typical Pac-10 football all offense and no defense. I'm a little nervous about this one the total score for this has only hit 60 once in the last 10 years. Never less you still have two offense that are averaging around 40 points a game and a two defenses allowing on average 20 points a game. This one should be a shootout.


I listened to Cowherd this week I like what he had to say about these games...so I will be tailing him for the first time this season...

Played:
Mich -15
Arizona +12.5
Nebraska -7


I'll be heading down to the game here in about hour...Go Bucks!

Good Luck to us all!
:mj06:
 
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