plays.....

AR182

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51-40-3 +9.00*

playing these for saturday....all for 2*.....

n.e.-3 (112)....

took this early in the week with the thought that brady will play.....

each week n.e.is getting healthier & healthier & while their offensive line & def. backfield(rookie db, hobbs has been a huge help) is not where bellichek would like it to be...it is alot better than it was....& with the return of faulk & dillion to the backfield, n.e. is no longer one dimensional....also like the fact that seymour is back on the defensive line & that bruschi has a few games under his belt....think the n.e. run defense will be able to contain williams.....also like that t.b.is coming off a big win over rival carolina last week & have another big rival game next week against atl...

with the weather forcast for the 30's on saturday....here is info that some might find interesting.....

t.b.is 2-20 when the temp.is below 40 degrees, while brady is 19-0 when the temp. is under 40....

this is t.b.'s 3rd straight road game & read that they would have traveled about 5200 miles in these 3 weeks....

since 1995, teams playing their 3rd straight road game where they won the 1st &/or 2nd road game are 11-22 ats (33.3%).......


teaser.....

den.-1.5
u 42...

took this teaser before buff. announced the qb switch......but will still keep it because the weather forcast calls for snow & wind....

think that buffalo will put up a tougher fight this week than they did last week vs. n.e.,but denver needs the win so i don't see denver not winning by at least 3......very simple game plan...denver has the #2 rushing offense & buffalo gives up close to 150 yards per game on the ground.....

teaser.....

n.e.+5.5
denver+1
o 37 k.c./giants (forcast calls for a nice clear day)


good luck.
 

AR182

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i just saw this at another forum & thought some might find it interesting....

this is concerning the tb/ne game..


Since 1983 a team in their 3rd straight road game is 49-109 SU and 64-92-2 ATS. So, fading them you cash nearly 59% winners.

If they are a road underdog they are now 31-87 SU and 48-69-1 ATS.

If they are a +3.5 to +6.5 road dog they are 14-34 SU and 19-28-1 ATS.

All the way we are looking at 59% winners fading the team playing their 3rd straight road game.

How about the last 4 years?

They are 2-14 SU and 5-11 ATS. The over is 13-2-1.

If they are a road underdog they are now 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. The over is 12-2-1.

If they are a +3.5 to +6.5 road dog they are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS. The over is 8-1-1.

Last 4 years and now we add December.
1-4 SU and ATS with the over going 5-0.
 

AR182

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other info that i read at another forum.....


Week 15 home teams have the best ATS winning percentage over last 22 years (57%).

Week 15 home teams have the 4th best SU winning percentage (60.3%).
Week 15 home teams following a loss are 78-48 ATS.
Week 15 home teams are 47-27 ATS as underdogs.
Week 15 home teams are 3-1 ATS at PICK.
Week 15 home teams are 85-71-3 ATS as favorites.

Going deeper into details...

Week 15 home teams favored by 3 pts or less are 22-23-2 ATS (NYG, Chi, Oak, STL).
Week 15 home teams favored from 3.5 to 6.5 pts are 30-19 ATS (NE).
Week 15 home teams favored by 7 or more are 33-29 ATS.

Week 15 home teams as underdogs of 7 pts or more are 14-6-1 ATS (Buf, Det, NO, Ten).
(just a note...i don't consider n.o. home this week....they practice in san antonio & have to get on a plane like carolina...)
Under .500 home teams in week 15 are 71-47-3 ATS, 40-20-3 as underdogs.
One win teams (Houston) are 0-4 ATS.
Three win teams (New Orleans) are 14-5-2 ATS.
Four win teams (Buff, Det, Oak, Ten) are 10-2 ATS L10Years.
Five win teams (STL) are 2-8 ATS if favored L12Years.
Six win teams (Mia) are 11-1 ATS if favored L8Years.

Over .500 teams are 56-47-3 ATS in week 15 at home
Seven win teams (Was) are 8-2-1 ATS as PICK or FAVS of four pts or less.
Nine win teams (Jax) are 8-3 of favored by 7 or more.
 
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AR182

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thanks guys....

went 2-1 yesterday.....& am 16-12 on nfl teasers for the season...

today....all for 2*...

teasers..

car.-1.5
u 48

really liked pitt. today but read that teams that have won 4 or more consecutive games are 20-10 ats as home dogs since 1980 & teams that have won 5 or more straight are 9-3 ats....

pitt.+4.5
u 48

cin.-1
seattle p

good luck.
 

AR182

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baby johnson....

i don't look at carolina playing as a road team...n.o. prectices in san antonio & has to get on a plane to travel to baton rouge just like carolina....i look at it as a neutral site...also i think n.o. is 0-2 ats at baton rouge...so don't think they like playing there....

as far as cin, seattle, & pitts. is concerned i think that they are more talented than who they're playing....but since i don't like to lay points on the road, i thought teasers are the way to go...
 

AR182

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thanks ba....

i played the under in the oak/clev.game earlier this week, but wasn't sure if i would keep it....but just checked the weather forcast for oakland.....

Rain / Wind
57?F Feels Like:53?F
Probability of Precipitation: 90%
Wind: From the South at 22 mph

2 more plays for 2*......

2*u 41(130) oak/cleve.

took another teaser....

indy has beaten all of there opponents by more than a td, but s.d. usually plays a close game, so i thought a tease with indy is the way to go until they lose a game....

eventhough this is a flat spot for jax...think that they should beat a terrible s.f. team by at least a td.....

here is an angle that i read...

play on any nfl favorite who is playing a sub .250 team who is coming off a su win as a home dog in their last game...

since 1980 ats record is 33-14...70%

play.... miami

2*teaser....

indy+3
jax.-5.5
miami+1


good luck.
 

AR182

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a book that i use went down to pick in the wash. game (which i think is crazy) so i thought that i would do one more teaser for 2*....


miami+2
car.+.5
wash.+10

good luck.
 

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate it....

went 7-2..+6.00* this week....

season record....

58-42.....+15.00*

am also 18-12 for the year on teasers....


congrats to all that had a winning day & week....


good luck & happy holidays...
 
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