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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 17-16 (-3.05*)

NFL YTD: 5-5 (-1.25*)
Top Plays (included above) 2-5 (-6.60*)


Philadelphia/Jacksonville(Ov45) (1*)

Indianapolis(-5') over Denver (1*)

Atlanta(+3') over New Orleans (1*)

Baltimore(-10') over Cleveland (1*)


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 8-7 (-0.45*)

NCAA YTD: 17-16 (-3.05*)
Top Plays (included above) 2-5 (-6.60*)

lostinamerica said:
- - I haven't been getting any better . . . that's a topic for another post.
Click to expand...

Well, last week provided an absoluletley perfect week for a case study breaking down my football capping, but I had no time to write a worthy post on the matter. I hope to look back and break it down next week.


Spending my weekend in and around Lambeau Field.


Cleveland(+3)(-120) over Cincinnati (1*)


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New York Jets(-4') over Minnesota (1*)
- - At the quarter pole, IMO the Jets and Steelers have played the most impressive ball, and I don't cap tonight as a situation where that slides . . . The Vikings bring the Favre act to the Big Apple where their leader orchestrated his escape from Green Bay, looking to flex the Purple muscles they have so far kept under loose fitting wraps . . . My favorite story from the Monday night game after Irv Favre died, when even Raiders fans were cheering for the opposing QB, came from WR Donald Driver. During a meeting that afternoon in the hotel of only receivers and skill position players, Driver stood up and said, "Anything he throws, we catch." That sentiment permeated an already well prepared Packers squad, and the lights out performance that followed was as much or more about the Packers as it was their grieving QB . . . At the other end of the spectrum is the first time former HC Mike Holmgren returned to Lambeau Field, and Favre retreated to burying his face in his hooded sweatshirt on the sidelines for much of the 4th quarter, and while walking off the field . . . Capping what sort of distractions are weighing on weepy Old Man Favre, and impacts the preparation and focus of his teammates and beloved Purple franchise, I have plenty of history to tap into, going all the way back to Kitrick Taylor, and then the formative legend before that . . .(Edit: One more point of analysis to follow here if/when time permits) . . . I was leaning to the Jets two weeks ago, and I don't cap that whatever line you want to make before should be holding steady . . . My standing rule of thumb is to always make a play on Monday night when I have an opinion on the action which is stronger than my initial take on most of the early lines for the following Sunday . . .

GL

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H

HoopsGuru

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 6, 2004
1,478
5
0
quick question for you. does it concern you that the jets are off 3 straight divisional games and the vikings are fresh off a bye? Those are my main concerns with backing the jets. I think the jets win a tight game somewhere along the lines of 20-13 but trying to gauge what others think. thanks and good luck.
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
HoopsGuru said:
quick question for you. does it concern you that the jets are off 3 straight divisional games and the vikings are fresh off a bye?

I think the jets win a tight game
Click to expand...
Yes the Jets run concerns me, which is why this was really a lean before.

I'm not sold on the Vikings having all sorts of minutia cleaned up coming out of the bye under the best of circumstances.

I expect (as more likely than any beat down) the type of close game that I identify much more with the Jets style than the visitor. If there are the makings of a beatdown, it won't be coming from Moss and his cohorts.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 11-8 (+1.45*)

NCAA YTD: 31-22 (+4.20*)
Top Plays (included above) 2-5 (-6.60*)


Chicago(-6) over Seattle (1*)
- - Chicago believes right now and is playing accordingly, has taken on a very palpable identity, and comes home with some wind in their sails, all of which reads to me like too damn much for Seattle on the road.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New Orleans(-5') over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
Clem D said:
I learned . . . a long time ago to map out every teams schedule before the year starts and figure how many games each is going to win. If a team you have pegged to win 4 games on the year has a 3-1 record they are most definitely due to lose. Pretty simple stuff . . . the Saints . . . Playing the Bucs . . . Payton is a great coach and they are much better than they have played. Coming off the loss he will take old Raheem behind the woodshed today.See a few sharp guys on the other side. Maybe I'm the Sucker . . .
Click to expand...
Tampa pulled a horseshoe out of their ass last week, while Brees and New Orleans took a crap in public, and my catechism teaches me that's a favorable sitution standing on its own . . . Maybe I'm the true sucker getting on at -5'.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Appropriate I went 1-1-1 on my posted plays,
since I was 6-6-1 on Sunday's full card.
************************************

NFL YTD: 12-9 (+1.35*)

NCAA YTD: 31-22 (+4.20*)
Top Plays (included above) 2-5 (-6.60*)


Minnesota(+3)(-125) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - If the Packers were as healthy as the league median, they would probably not be coming in off back-to-back OT losses, and this would shape up as a great contest with a live dog. As it is, the M.A.S.H. unit Packers are going from one physical team to another physical team, and that dog is still a live one. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,389
206
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 15-13 (-0.05)

NCAA YTD: 34-34 (-6.15*)
Top Plays (included above) 2-5 (-6.60*)


Kansas City(Pk) over Denver (1*)
- -

Tennessee(+1) over Miami (1*)
- -

Houston(+1) over Jacksonville (1*)
- -

New York Jets(-3)(-130) over Cleveland (1*)
- -


GL
 
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