please help understand line movement

[snoozer]

I am trying to figure out valueing line movement. Can yuu please help me understand how it works and for the scenario's which team would you bet on (and why)

Team A starts as 15 point favorite over Team B. Consensus show 70% on team A, but the line is dropping, who is the public betting on? who do you bet (and why)?


Team A starts as 15 point favorite over Team B. Consensus show 70% on team B, but the line is going up, who is the public betting on? who do you bet (and why)?

 

[CherryPicker]

I look at line movements a lot and try to fade heavy public consensus teams (70% or more of public on them) or I look for line movements "against the money." So in your last example if the consensus is increasing on a certain team but the line is moving against them then I bet opposite of the consensus pick (the team that most of the public is betting on.) I have seen more success using the later over the "long haul" since the public seems to get it right eventually, if they can stand the early losses.


Interested to see other responses though...

 

[buddy]

Let me see if I understand this....

You are trying to understand how the direction of line movement might provide a clue which points to the probable side in a matchup?

If my thinking is right, I have a suggestion...

drive to the nearest hospital and admit yourself to the Psych Ward.

 

[ysg3]

why, this is an angle i routinely look at when placing a bet.. not understand why it should not being paid attention to.

 

[buddy]

Line movements always confused me. I could never find a consistent trend. Know what I mean?

One week it zigged, the next week it zigged the other way.

And besides, when you reach my age, you tend to concentrate more on bowel movements.

 

[IntenseOperator]

I am trying to figure out valueing line movement. Can yuu please help me understand how it works and for the scenario's which team would you bet on (and why)

Team A starts as 15 point favorite over Team B. Consensus show 70% on team A, but the line is dropping, who is the public betting on? who do you bet (and why)?


Team A starts as 15 point favorite over Team B. Consensus show 70% on team B, but the line is going up, who is the public betting on? who do you bet (and why)?

IMO, your best option is to take a hands on approach. Track what you see as far as public consensus and line movement. Over time you may get some answers to your questions. Line movement with and against public sentiment can be useful in some sports and not as much in others. I also believe it is more successful during certain times of the season. Right now, I think it's hard to gage public perception in baseball because of the lowering interest in it. There is also a train of thought as to placing more weight on line movement only when it occurs early or before tip.

I think watching the public sentiment on a game and the line movement is extremely useful, along with a number of other things. It should not be dismissed so fast just because it may be harder to follow or read. It takes some experience.

 

[IntenseOperator]

"Trends" are a whole other ball game.

 

[bassmaster007]

i was trying something like that and found that toooo many games meet that criteria. now i look at the games it self and not try to make a wager even tho percentages might say the public is on them or against.

 

[bryanz]

The line moves are not an exact science,read my post ,(why play this game tonight).last night the FAV opened at 9 and moved to 14 and the % of the money moved up on the dog and the FAV won. If this was logical the % of money should have been moving down. I will say the only thing that is a constant is that money doesn't move the line. Lines makers do for different reasons. Tonight game has the line moving down from 13 to 10 .Why has the line come down ,when there is more money on the fav?

 

[bryanz]

Last night they ran the line up and the fav covered. Tonight they run it down and the fav will cover. It's an ongoing puzzle especially when there is only one or two games that day in that sport. The line is set to make people bet both sides,not to predict the outcome. I think it should be used as 1 angle with many others.

 

[IntenseOperator]

Nothing works for every game or for picking every correct play.

When you get some time watching line movement, public sentiment, and trend info, you will have a better grasp of when to make a move.

I played Miami and Atlanta Sunday based on these very things.

A lot of winning gambling is knowing when to sit. Whether you had a winner does not matter. Forcing plays is a good way to go broke. If you are not sure of a move, either sit or make a small play for snicks. There's more plays down the road.

 

[bryanz]

I agree with everything he just said.

 

[michaeljbird]

Just a word of friendly advice. Take it for what its worth. Your not paying me for it.

1- Make a play because it meets the criteria that warrants a wager based on what the line is WHEN you play it.

2- Pay no attention to what the line movement is. Some is legit because of injuries,travel problems, a couple of blue-chipers failing a test. ect. Some is just a mind screw. Believe it. Sometimes the lines move because professional gamblers are playing the game. Senario------- The books are loaded on public money on a given game, Do they move the line? Maybe so maybe no. But let's just say they are loaded on public money and a sharp pro comes in and bets the other side for a fraction of the total money they are holding. Do they move the line ? You can bet your sweet ass they do. So unless you happen to KNOW personally some really sharp players ie Billy Walters, Lem Banker...... You will never really know if the line movement is this so called "publc money" or truly sharp money.

3- Never force a play and have a solid reasoning for EVERY play that you make. Use good money management, and even if the bottom falls out you won't get hurt. And if you work hard and grind out a nice profit ( say 55-60%) consider yourself a bulldog. Be realistic.

Thanks MJB