Pocono Info

Another Steve

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By Matt Tuck
Contributing Editor

August 3, 2007

Just a little over a month ago, the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series hit the asphalt of the triangular-shaped Pocono Raceway. Six races after Jeff Gordon won a rain-shortened Pocono 500, the drivers are ready for a rematch with the four-time series champion.

While the close proximity of the Pocono races do not make for the most exciting schedule, it is advantageous to the fantasy owner. When it comes to Pennsylvania weather, June and the first of August are not very different in the Pocono Mountains, so the set-ups will be very similar from one race to the next.

Although Pocono is the most unique track on the circuit, it shares more likenesses with Indianapolis Motor Speedway than any other track. With both the Pocono 500 and the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard both under the belt in less than two months, fantasy owners can look at those events and get an idea of who will be competitive on Sunday.

Favorites
Flat track driving is much like road course driving. It requires a great set-up and skill entering and exiting the turns. Since the Pocono 500 was shortened by rain, the data from that race is not going to be the end-all of information for the Pennsylvania 500. However, with both Infineon Raceway and Indy having been run in the past five races, there is plenty of data to be had.

Denny Hamlin broke an 11-race streak of top-10s on the flat tracks with his 22nd at Indy. However, he is still among the favorite picks for the tri-oval of Pocono. The sophomore's three career wins have all come on flat tracks; he swept the Pocono races from the poles in 2006 and picked up the victory at New Hampshire International Speedway earlier this year. He kept running into problems at the Brickyard, but he will avoid trouble and have a nice finish this weekend.

Hamlin's teammate Tony Stewart can make a case for himself as one of the flat track elite. He has two wins on the low-banked speedways since last season, picking up the checkered flag at Martinsville Speedway in 2006 and, more importantly, earning the win at Indy last week. So far in 2007, his Brickyard victory is one of three top-fives and four top-10s on the flat tracks. At the moment, "Smoke" is the hottest driver on the circuit with back-to-back wins and he has four straight top-10s in Pennsylvania.

Dark Horses
These are the most fun drivers to pick because there is such a high upside to finding that "diamond in the rough." With so many ways to find the better drivers for this week's race, there will be plenty of surprise choices to run inside the top-10.

Juan Montoya was a great story at the Brickyard. The 2000 Indy 500 winner started on the outside pole for the first time in his Nextel Cup Series career and ran in the top-five nearly all day. Eventually, he finished a well-deserved second. His progression on the flat tracks has been rather fast. The road racing veteran has only finished outside the top-20 once on a low-banked speedway. In June, he was 20th at Pocono. With a win at Infineon and a top-five at Indy, things are looking good for Montoya this week.

Clint Bowyer did not get the finish he would have liked at Indy, but he was better than his 13th-place result indicates. The sophomore was able to get into the top-five at the Brickyard, but he lost his handling late in the race and dropped out of the top-10. That was not totally unexpected; last year, he finished fourth at Indy. Earlier this year, he finished 10th at Pocono, giving him three top-20s and only one result below 22nd on the flat tracks in 2007.

Avoidance Principal
The rumor mill is running rampant when it comes to the No. 8 Chevrolet. At the moment, it has David Stremme taking over the ride in 2008. While it would help the negotiations for the sophomore to have a strong run at Pocono, don't look for that to happen. Although he showed promise on the flat tracks in 2006, he has not been up to task this year. So far, he has four finishes of 26th or lower and nothing better than a 23rd at Pocono. That also happened to be his career high in Pennsylvania.

Before Brian Vickers went to victory lane at Talladega SuperSpeedway in October, it looked like he would score his first career win at Pocono. Driving for Hendrick Motorsports, he had three finishes of second or fourth there in his last four Pennsylvania starts in the No. 25 Chevrolet. Driving the No. 83 Toyota is a different scenario. He lingered at the back of the pack in the Pocono 500 and was 35th when the rain fell. Team Red Bull is far from contending for wins, but Vickers has shown that he can crack the top 10. With that being said, he could be upgraded to a dark horse if his practice numbers are consistently strong and assuming he qualifies on time.
 

Another Steve

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August 3, 2007 6:21 PM ET
Earnhardt wins pole
The News

Dale Earnhardt Jr. won his first pole in 172 attempts at Pocono Raceway, with a speed of 169.975 miles per hour.
Our View

Earnhardt got the benefit of a cool track. He had the first car out after a brief rain shower wet the track and caused an hour long rain delay.
August 3, 2007 6:03 PM ET
Mears crashes in quals practice
The News

Casey Mears was one of several drivers who crashed in qualification practice. The damage was huge, but they needed to roll out a backup nonetheless.
Our View

In his backup car, he nevertheless qualified well, which underscores how strong Hendrick Motorsports is at Pocono.
August 3, 2007 2:13 PM ET
Allmendinger crashes in quals practice
The News

A.J. Allmendinger also crashed in the practice session, and his hope of making the race took a big hit.
Our View

To make matters worse, it is spitting rain in the garage at the moment, and qualification could be in jeopardy.
August 3, 2007 1:54 PM ET
Ku Busch wins quals practice
The News

Kurt Busch posted the fastest time in practice for qualification, with a speed of 166.533 miles per hour.
Our View

He edged Martin Truex Jr.?who had a strong showing here in June?and his brother Kyle Busch, who continues to impress potential car owners.
August 3, 2007 1:09 PM ET
Ragan crashes in practice for quals
The News

David Ragan backed his Ford into the wall early in the practice session for qualification and was forced to roll out a backup.
Our View

Pocono Raceway is not kind to rookies and this is an illustration of that.
August 2, 2007 11:13 AM ET
Hamlin has best Pocono average running position
The News

It will probably come as no surprise, but Denny Hamlin has the best average running position among active drivers at Pocono, with an average place on the track of 4.9 during his three races from the past three years.
Our View

That is nearly double that of the second place driver in this category: Kurt Busch has an average running position of 8.7
 

Another Steve

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By Dan Beaver
Senior Editor

August 4, 2007

Like June, rain plagued the early activities at Pocono Raceway, but it has cleared and the weekend should be just fine. The remnants of a light spit of precipitation has jumbled the front of the pack and created some interesting storylines for the week.

A persistent sprinkle during ARCA qualification kept the track cool and allowed the early drivers to qualify better than they otherwise would have. After that, the track heated up until another shower delayed the session by 45 minutes and cooled the surface once more just in time for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win his first pole in 172 races.

Tier One
Denny Hamlin had his worst qualification attempt at Pocono in his career. That is the bad news; the good news is that he still rolls off the grid sixth and further confirms his status as a favorite. His only stumble on a flat track came last week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and that was occasioned by a fuel mileage miscalculation instead of an error in the cockpit. Otherwise, he's been perfect on the lightly-banked courses and remained the closest thing to a sure thing you'll find in the Pocono 500.

The Busch brothers are trying to outrun one another yet again. The only thing better than beating the field for Kurt Busch is beating Kyle Busch, and their game of one-upsmanship began on Friday. Kurt was on the provisional pole when Kyle hit the track and the younger brother came within fractions of a second of stealing the top spot. The No. 5 car was faster in turn one than the No. 2, lost time in the tunnel turn and then gained speed again in turn three. Ultimately, turn three is going to be the differentiator, and Kyle is going to be a good value.

This week, there really aren't any drivers to avoid in Tier One, so concentrate your energy instead on determining who is going to win outright. Matt Kenseth has been characteristically quite all week, but even he is good for a top-10 once the checkers wave.

Tier Two
We were prepared to wave a red flag over Dale Earnhardt Jr. until his qualification attempt. True, his pole was aided by ideal track conditions, but it may yet be enough to spur him onto a good run. While he has not finished in the top 10 at this track in his last six attempts, he was the class of the field last week at Indy before catastrophic engine failure took him out of contention. That recommends him this week.

Juan Montoya is a compelling dark horse and his status also owes itself to a strong run in last week's race at Indy. It certainly does not have anything to do with his effort this June when he finished 20th in the Pocono 500. In that race, however, he was the fastest of the rookies and Montoya has shown an ability to learn very quickly. Now that he has mastered the flat corners of the similarly banked Indianapolis Motor Speedway, his odds improve in our estimation.

Carl Edwards has a little momentum on his side, but he gets a red flag for two reasons. First and foremost he hasn't finished in the top 10 on a flat track all season, although he came close with several top-15s. That might be enough in Tier Three or Four, but one can do much better at this level. Secondly, he is one of the double duty drivers this week who is going to make the long trip to and from Montreal for the road race, and even though that is likely to aid his skill on this type of track in the long run, we are betting he's going to be tired on Sunday.

Tier Three
Dave Blaney has momentum on his side for the first time all season after finishing in the top 10 last week at Indy. That strong run propelled him into the top 35 in owner points, which in turn allowed him to concentrate on his race setup for most of the weekend. This is the first time on an oval track that six of the seven Toyota teams have qualified and as a group they are slowly getting better. It is not out of the question that Blaney could post back-to-back top-10s and if he does, you will look like a genius for picking him.

Pocono rewards experience, so Ricky Rudd is your next-best picks at this level. Good track conditions aided him in his qualification effort and he will roll off the grid 20th. This will give him a decent pit stall and his skill will allow him to pick his way meticulously toward the front.

Picks to avoid are easy at this level. J.J. Yeley has been caustic since finishing second in a fuel-aided run at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler still have to prove themselves since returning to the old setup notes and David Ragan crashed his primary car in the first practice session of the week.

Tier Four
Brian Vickers could finally get his fortunes turned around this weekend. Pocono has been kind to him in the past, and as previously stated, Toyota seems to be turning their fortunes around. On several occasions, the driver of the No. 83 has been the shining start for this organization and that could happen again. If Blaney is capable of running in the top 10, then so should Vickers be.

Paul Menard bought his way into the field with the DEI/Ginn merger, but emotions aside, he should now be able to slowly improve now that he is guaranteed to start every race?until he gets overhauled by the other drivers outside the top 35 who used to be his boon companions
 
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