Pocono

DeadPrez

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The last few weeks the guys I've posted before the weekend begins have ended up not being in contention. So I'm a little gun shy to do it again. However there are 2 guys this week at mid range odds that I think have a good shot at running well and possibly contending for a win. And if they qualify well I'd expect their odds to drop out of my favor substantially.

Ryan Newman is running the same chassis as last week, which is the same chassis he's had a lot of success in since last year. If I remember correctly, SHR tested here before the June race and Goodyear is bringing the same tire as the June race. Newman finished 5th in June. In Newman's last 5 August pocono races he's averaged a 7.8 starting position. So hopefully he can back up his Indy pole run with a good qualifying spot. In his last 5 overall pocono races he's averaged a 14.0 starting position but a 7.4 finishing position, improving on his starting position in each race. So the thinking is if he can qualify well he'd be in a good spot. Also Newman has some momentum after last week. Think he's worth a shot at +1950

Listening to The Morning Drive on sirius this week (as I do everyday), Steve Letarte in his weekly Monday slot was very optimistic about this coming week for Dale jr. Junior was very strong here in June, running 2nd for most of the day. The 48 and the 88 team share a shop at Hendrick and Letarte said they took a lot out of the debrief they had with the 48 team after the race. They are bringing back the same car as well that they ran in June. He was also very fast last week at Indy. I think worth a shot at +1650 (was +1800).

I like Kahne this weekend as well and I think Stewart will be a factor. Also look for Kurt Busch to be strong. I'm not a Chevy guy, but notice that like last week I'm thinking the bowties will be the team to beat. And of course the 48 stomped the field here in June and will always be the guy to beat. His odds have already dropped from +450 to +325. Hamlin hasn't been the same here since the repave.
 
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ShinerGrinder

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I like Kahne a lot this week. He had a great car in the first race but had something go wrong in the opening lap that put him a few laps down.
 

DeadPrez

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I like Kahne a lot this week. He had a great car in the first race but had something go wrong in the opening lap that put him a few laps down.

Great point shiner. Also something to remember is that qualifying in June was rained out and the field was set by points. Kurt Busch was fast in practice but had to start 20th and finished 7th. Would imagine he'd be starting much closer to the front this weekend.
 

Looselugs

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Track conditions will be very similar as they was back in June. Same tire compound. Most are bringing back the same car they ran in June. So its going to be like there going to race this race all over again.

Surprised the 48 team don`t bring that Indy car,that also won here in June. Instead there bringing a car that finished 22nd at Charlotte and 9th at Kentucky.

If you look at that June race Johnson had a dominate car that led 80%of the race. Of the 160 laps he had 36 fastest laps. While this is much easier done while leading Khane had 51 fastest laps in traffic. Khane is bring back that same car.

Jr had a very solid day. Finished 3rd with a average running position of 3rd. 2nd best driver rating behind Johnson.

Johnson is now 3-1. I just don`t see it.

Locked in

Khane 8.5-1
Jr 16.5-1
Newman 19.5-1

gl
lugs
 

Looselugs

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Hey William!


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/D92i9qkKoCs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

:0corn
 

Another Steve

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ODDS TO WIN NASCAR GOBOWLING.COM 400 TONY STEWART +1200
ODDS TO WIN NASCAR GOBOWLING.COM 400 JEFF GORDON +1400
 

DeadPrez

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Only 1 practice this week, not the usual amount of info to go off of, so I'm basing my plays on how they ran here in June, last week at Indy, chassis selections and testing. Ambrose tested at pocono before Indy and was very optimistic as to how much it would help him this weekend. Ran 7th in practice and qualified 8th. Pocono has a history of being a fuel mileage race.

Kyle +700
Kahne +875

Mid range:

Kurt +1500
Junior +1650
Newman +1950

Longshots

Ambrose +10000
Burton +12500

Match ups:

Ambrose over Menard (+100)
Montoya over Martin (-130)
Kahne over Kenseth (-140)
Junior over Kenseth (-110)
Gordon over Kenseth (+105)

Rolling the dice on the Hendrick boys outrunning Kenseth today. Kenseth has had a great year and ran well here in June before a late race incident with Keselowski, but traditionally doesn't tear it up at pocono. Gordon's last 5 August races at pocono have resulted in top 10's while Kenseth has zero top 10's in the last 5 August races here. Kahne and Junior had very strong cars here in June. Both had disappointing qualifying runs but should be fast. Kenseth was 27th quick in the only practice on Friday and qualified 24th, his worst qualifying spot of the year. Happy race day!! Pocono!!
 

Grama

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Love the analysis and agree that the June race is the blueprint.

To Win:
Kurt 9-1
Kahne 10-1
Newman 16-1 (5Dimes)
Junior 22-1 (5Dimes)

Top 5:
Stewart +190 (5Dimes)
Junior +315 (5Dimes)

Head to Head:
Kahne over Jimmie +180
Gordon over Hamlin +105
Jr over Kenseth +105
Smoke over Kyle Even


William - I hope Jimmie blows up - no offense :00hour
 
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Looselugs

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adding

Jimmy Johnson not in top 3 +100
Jimmy Johnson not in top 5 +180

gl
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DeadPrez

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Love the analysis and agree that the June race is the blueprint.

To Win:
Kurt 9-1
Kahne 10-1
Newman 16-1 (5Dimes)
Junior 22-1 (5Dimes)

Top 5:
Stewart +190 (5Dimes)
Junior +315 (5Dimes)

Head to Head:
Kahne over Jimmie +180
Gordon over Hamlin +105
Jr over Kenseth +105
Smoke over Kyle Even


William - I hope Jimmie blows up - no offense :00hour

I think the Kahne over Johnson play is a nice value play at those odds. I almost made that play twice today but didn't pull the trigger. It actually went to +200 at 5dimes and when I saw you posted it as well I tried to grab it but it was already of the board. good luck
 

Old School

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The last few weeks the guys I've posted before the weekend begins have ended up not being in contention. So I'm a little gun shy to do it again. However there are 2 guys this week at mid range odds that I think have a good shot at running well and possibly contending for a win. And if they qualify well I'd expect their odds to drop out of my favor substantially.

Ryan Newman is running the same chassis as last week, which is the same chassis he's had a lot of success in since last year. If I remember correctly, SHR tested here before the June race and Goodyear is bringing the same tire as the June race. Newman finished 5th in June. In Newman's last 5 August pocono races he's averaged a 7.8 starting position. So hopefully he can back up his Indy pole run with a good qualifying spot. In his last 5 overall pocono races he's averaged a 14.0 starting position but a 7.4 finishing position, improving on his starting position in each race. So the thinking is if he can qualify well he'd be in a good spot. Also Newman has some momentum after last week. Think he's worth a shot at +1950

Listening to The Morning Drive on sirius this week (as I do everyday), Steve Letarte in his weekly Monday slot was very optimistic about this coming week for Dale jr. Junior was very strong here in June, running 2nd for most of the day. The 48 and the 88 team share a shop at Hendrick and Letarte said they took a lot out of the debrief they had with the 48 team after the race. They are bringing back the same car as well that they ran in June. He was also very fast last week at Indy. I think worth a shot at +1650 (was +1800).

I like Kahne this weekend as well and I think Stewart will be a factor. Also look for Kurt Busch to be strong. I'm not a Chevy guy, but notice that like last week I'm thinking the bowties will be the team to beat. And of course the 48 stomped the field here in June and will always be the guy to beat. His odds have already dropped from +450 to +325. Hamlin hasn't been the same here since the repave.


you know your stuff:0074
 
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