Nova Report
The 7-1 Villanova Wildcats are in Ann Arbor, Michigan to play the #2 8-0 Michigan Wolverines. The game will be on FS1 at 6:30 pm eastern time. Michigan is -17.5/150.5.
Michigan has destroyed their last 4 opponents by a combined 151 points. This includes a 30 point win over #21 Auburn and 40 point win over #12 Gonzaga on a neutral court. Throw in a 40 point and a 41 point victory over San Diego St and Rutgers and you see why the Wolverines are feared by all. In fact, some analysts believe if their bench were starters, that group would be ranked in the top 10. In marches the Villanova Wildcats to play these guys not on a neutral court but on their campus.
Michigan is believed to have the best front line in the country with 6’9” Yaxel Lendeborg (15.8 ppg, 39% from 3 and a future lottery pick), Morez Johnson Jr. (14.3 ppg and their Mr. Energy) and 7’3” Aday Mara (9.4 ppg). Elliott Cadeau (8.4 ppg) runs the show from point and sharpshooters, McKenney and Gayle Jr. (both at 41% from 3) round out their top 6. Michigan is ranked 7th in points per game, 5th in field goal %, 3rd in rebounds, 2nd in assists and 6th in blocks. They have depth with 9 players getting substantial minutes. Other than that….
For the Wildcats who have played one of the easier schedules around, they are led by 50% from 3 shooter Bryce Lindsay, a freshman point guard, Acaden Lewis who was heavily recruited by Michigan, 6’10” glass cleaner Duke Brennan, 3 point specialist Matt Hodge and a hustling Tyler Perkins. Coach Willard has played 11 players and expect that tonight. Unfortunately, the Cats have the second worst 3 point defense in the country (but they ARE improving). Additionally, redshirt Freshman, Matt Hodge, draws the assignment to guard Lendeborg.
What to expect. Michigan will try to run Nova out of the building for sure. They will go inside to Mara and try to get Duke Brennan loaded with fouls as the Cats have no replacement for him. They will also crash the offensive boards as they have a height advantage. Of course, they’ll try to nail some 3’s early to get the frenzied crowd into the game.
For the Wildcats….slow the pace and limit Michigan‘s possessions. Everyone has to rebound to help keep Brennan in the game. Silence the crowd with some early 3’s. Substitute early and often and press their guards who are turnover prone. Keep chipping away as they no doubt will have some big runs.
Both Clubs shot lights out in their last games so I expect some negative regression. I have yet to find a Capper who picks the Wildcats. So…taking a Nova/Under teaser.
Let me leave you with this. Paraphrasing Coach Herb Brooks when he addressed the US Olympic Hockey Team vs Russia. ‘Great Moments are born from great opportunity. And that’s what we have tonight, boys. One game. If we played them ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight we run with them. Tonight we stay with them. AND WE SHUT THEM DOWN BECAUSE WE CAN. Tonight, we are the greatest basketball team in the country.”
GO WILDCATS!
Nova Pick: 5 point teaser Nova+22.5/Under 155.5
Nova Pick Record:4-3-1