Nova Report
The road warriors are in Cincinnati to take on the 17th ranked Xavier Musketeers (12-2) at the Cintas Center. Tip is 6:30 eastern. Line is pick ?em/140.5. These clubs met three weeks ago in Villanova with the Cats winning 71-58 as they outscored Xavier 40-21 in the 2nd half. Xavier missed all of their 3 point attempts in the 2nd half and had numerous turnovers as Nova increased their defensive pressure.
Tonight, it will be different. Xavier plays WAY better defensively at home and they shot quite well at Butler this weekend. Additionally, Zach Freemantle, last year?s leading scorer for Xavier was hobbled with a gimpy ankle vs. Nova. As Xavier has only played one game in the last 3 weeks, he should be recovered. So, expect Xavier to be WAY more competitive this evening. Scruggs and Jones were shut down by the Cats. Unlikely to be able to do that again.
As for Villanova, Dixon had his best game of the season vs Xavier so look for the Musketeers to clamp down on him. Nova will as usual play their post up game with their guards to either go to the hoop or kick it out for a 3. They have shot marginally better as of late, but still not what they should. There is no doubt it will be defense that wins the day. Antoine (who did not play vs Xavier) needs to shut down Scruggs as best he can while Slater (who played with a twisted ankle last Saturday) needs to clamp down on Colby Jones. AND, the Cats need to make their free throws.
What Will Happen: expect Xavier to come out on fire and probably have the lead at the half. My guess is Xavier will attempt to defend Gillespie and Dixon vigorously so it will be up to Moore, Samuels and Slater to pick up the scoring. My belief is Nova will try to score more from inside than beyond the arc. As in the last 3 games, defensive adjustments will be made at halftime and we?ll see a nip and tuck game to the end. Ultimately, Nova will win this one at the foul line.
My Bet: 5 point teaser Nova+5/Under 145.5
My Nova Pick Record: 5-9-1