TCU Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
TCU's offense has been run-heavy this year, and it will continue to show a strong commitment to the ground game. However, it should surprise no one if offensive coordinator Mike Schultz comes out throwing the ball. First off, QB Jeff Ballard finished the regular season strong, and he can pick a defense apart when he gets time. He has a strong arm and is very accurate when he gets into a rhythm. Secondly, Schultz should feel comfortable putting the ball in Ballard's hands. After all, Ballard hasn't thrown an interception since the Wyoming game in late October, and he is an effective open field runner who can pick up yards with his feet when nothing is available downfield. Thirdly, Northern Illinois should have some problems matching up with the Frogs' receiving corps. Losing corner Alvah Hansbro to a season-ending biceps injury forced defensive coordinator Denny Doornbos to insert sophomore DC Bradley Pruit into the lineup early in the year. As a result, the Huskies don't have ideal depth or talent at corner, and that's not good news for Northern Illinois fans because TCU has three receivers who could impact the outcome of this game. Quentily Harmon has a good combination of speed and size, Michael DePriest shows a second gear when tracking balls downfield and Donald Massey has the burst to separate from man coverage. Ballard should be able to find a favorable matchup and exploit it with the Frogs frequently spreading the field. Keeping that in mind, the Huskies cannot allow Ballard to get comfortable in the pocket. The problem is rattling him should prove difficult. Though DE Larry English is an excellent pass rusher, he is the only one of note and frequently should work against Herb Taylor. Taylor has the quick first step and agility to hold his own working against English. Making matters worse, Ballard has the quick feet and pocket presence to buy himself time.
Northern Illinois' front seven is aggressive, quick and relentles,s but it should a have hard time slowing TCU's ground attack. For starters, the Frogs' offensive line should control the line of scrimmage and open up quality seams for the backs. Though there aren't a lot of massive drive blockers up front, it's a cohesive unit that generally does a good job of getting into position. More important, it's swift enough to prevent the Huskies' defensive linemen from regularly getting into the backfield. Secondly, Lonta Hobbs and Aaron Brown are both gifted runners. Hobbs bursts through holes and runs hard between the tackles. Brown has the speed to turn the corner and is dangerous when he gets into the open field. In addition, giving both backs carries should keep both fresh late in the game. Thirdly, Hobbs and Brown shouldn't see many eight-man fronts. If Doornbos starts walking a safety up into the box, it will make Northern Illinois vulnerable to getting beat deep by effectively creating single-coverage matchups on the outside. The longer the score stays close, the better the Huskies' chances of winning, so Doornbos shouldn't be too aggressive.
Northern Illinois Offense vs. TCU Defense
It's important to remember that the Frogs have significantly outscored their opponents in the first half and averaged more time of possession than their opponents when evaluating their run defense. If teams didn't have to throw the ball in an effort to come from behind or the defense had to stay on the field for longer periods of time, would TCU still have one of the stoutest run defenses in the nation? That question should be answered by the Frogs' ability to slow RB Garrett Wolfe, who has rushed for more yards than any other Division I-A player this year. Wolfe's only real weakness is his size, as he explodes through holes, shows a second gear in the open field and his balance allowed him to pick up yards after contact. He's also averaged just more than 24 carries per game and it is unlikely offensive coordinator John Bond abandons the run if the Huskies fall behind early. The key for TCU will be winning the battle of the trenches and playing fundamentally sound defense. NT Jarrarcea Williams possesses good size and is strong at the point of attack. If he can consistently draw double teams, it should help keep blockers off MLB Jason Phillips, who has sideline-to-sideline range. In addition, the Frogs do a good job of rotating their defensive linemen, so it's unlikely they wear down as the game progresses. However, a strong game from the defensive line won't matter if it and the rest of the defense don't stay disciplined. Wolfe has excellent vision and lateral mobility, so he can still produce when the hole the play calls for him to run though doesn't open.
Northern Illinois head coach Joe Novak probably wishes this wasn't the first bowl on the schedule. A later bowl would have given senior QB Phil Horvath more time to recover from the knee injury he sustained against Central Michigan late in the season. The Huskies are still hopeful that Horvath will be back in the lineup, but it is unknown whether or not he'll play, and backup Dan Nicholson threw three interceptions in the final regular season game. That said, neither quarterback makes great decisions under pressure so Northern Illinois' pass protection should have to hold up, and that won't be an easy task. TCU defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas is aggressive and keeps blockers off balance by blitzing from different angles. In fact, 15 different defenders have recorded sacks. Keeping that in mind, LOT Doug Free has to hold up on an island working against talented DE's Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. If he can, it will free up blockers to provide help in other areas. The good news for Free is Bond should help him by keeping the ends off balance with some screens, and Wolfe is always a threat to turn a short catch into a long gain. In addition, it's worth noting that TE Jake Nordin is listed as questionable with a leg injury and his return to the lineup should give the passing game a substantial boost. Nordin is an effective pass blocker and an adequate short-to-intermediate receiver who can provide the quarterback with a good safety valve.
With TCU crowding the line of scrimmage in an effort to slow Wolfe and blitzing in certain situations, wide receivers Britt Davis and Marcus Perez should see plenty of single coverage. However, that doesn't mean they'll have success getting open. Redshirt freshmen Nick Sanders and Rafael Priest have developed into a quality corner tandem. While Priest doesn't make as many big plays as Sanders, both have above average man-to-man cover skills.
Special Teams
TCU PK Chris Manfredini was a bit inconsistent earlier in the year, but he has settled in and connected on 11 of 13 field goal attempts overall. Backup Peter Lococo has gotten plenty of opportunities in relief. The Frogs like to use Lococo when attempting long-distance field goals and kicking off because he has superior range. However, he has missed his only two field goal attempts outside 50 yards and two of his kickoffs have gone out of bounds. Brian Cortney should handle the bulk of the punting duties. He possesses good leg strength and is capable of placing the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Derek Wash has 13 punts on the year and has shown good touch when trying to pin the opponent deep. Both punters have to get rid of the ball quickly, and their protection must be sound because the Huskies have blocked two punts this year. PRs Brian Bonner and Marcus Brock are aggressive and they reach their top speed quickly so Northern Illinois' kickoff cover unit must continue to play well. Though Donald Massey is quick and Aaron Brown possesses good speed, they face a strong Husky kickoff cover unit.
Northern Illinois PK Chris Nendick has been busy connecting on 20 of his 26 field goal attempts this year. Though he flashes the ability to connect on long-range field goal attempts, accuracy is his strongest attribute and he isn't going to miss many field goal attempts inside 40 yards. He gets good distance on his kickoffs as well. P Andy Dittbenner doesn't have great leg strength, but he generally gets good hang-time on his kicks and he has placed 13 of his 46 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Much like his counterparts, he must get rid of the ball quickly because the Horned Frogs have blocked three punts this year. The Huskies' return units have been average at best and it's unlikely that changes against a TCU team that has done a good job of covering kicks. However, the Frogs must be careful not to underestimate Matt Simon. Northern Illinois gave Simon an opportunity to return punts late in the year and he took one of his two returns back 40 yards.
Matchups
? Northern Illinois RB Garrett Wolfe vs. TCU Jason Phillips
? TCU LOT Herb Taylor vs. Northern Illinois DE Larry English
? Northern Illinois LOT Doug Free vs. TCU DE Tommy Blake
Scouts' Edge
Though he should run with great determination and electrify the crowd with some of his runs, Wolfe doesn't have the consistent passing attack to prevent TCU from ganging up on him. The Frogs should take advantage by regularly playing eight men near the ling of scrimmage and allowing them to slow Wolfe enough to force Northern Illinois to put the ball in the air. With TCU's pass rush applying consistent pressure and its corners covering well, it won't matter whether Horvath or Nicholson lines up under center. The Frogs will force some errant throws that cause Husky drives to stall or generate some turnovers. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, doesn't have the luxury of focusing on stopping one aspect of the TCU offense. If the Huskies stack the line of scrimmage in an effort to take away the run, Jeff Ballard should pick the secondary apart. If Northern Illinois stays conservative and consistently drops seven men into coverage, running backs Lonta Hobbs and Aaron Brown should be productive enough to keep the chains moving. In addition, it's unlikely the Huskies' return units help the offense by providing quality starting field position or points.
Prediction: Horned Frogs 35, Huskies 21
TCU's offense has been run-heavy this year, and it will continue to show a strong commitment to the ground game. However, it should surprise no one if offensive coordinator Mike Schultz comes out throwing the ball. First off, QB Jeff Ballard finished the regular season strong, and he can pick a defense apart when he gets time. He has a strong arm and is very accurate when he gets into a rhythm. Secondly, Schultz should feel comfortable putting the ball in Ballard's hands. After all, Ballard hasn't thrown an interception since the Wyoming game in late October, and he is an effective open field runner who can pick up yards with his feet when nothing is available downfield. Thirdly, Northern Illinois should have some problems matching up with the Frogs' receiving corps. Losing corner Alvah Hansbro to a season-ending biceps injury forced defensive coordinator Denny Doornbos to insert sophomore DC Bradley Pruit into the lineup early in the year. As a result, the Huskies don't have ideal depth or talent at corner, and that's not good news for Northern Illinois fans because TCU has three receivers who could impact the outcome of this game. Quentily Harmon has a good combination of speed and size, Michael DePriest shows a second gear when tracking balls downfield and Donald Massey has the burst to separate from man coverage. Ballard should be able to find a favorable matchup and exploit it with the Frogs frequently spreading the field. Keeping that in mind, the Huskies cannot allow Ballard to get comfortable in the pocket. The problem is rattling him should prove difficult. Though DE Larry English is an excellent pass rusher, he is the only one of note and frequently should work against Herb Taylor. Taylor has the quick first step and agility to hold his own working against English. Making matters worse, Ballard has the quick feet and pocket presence to buy himself time.
Northern Illinois' front seven is aggressive, quick and relentles,s but it should a have hard time slowing TCU's ground attack. For starters, the Frogs' offensive line should control the line of scrimmage and open up quality seams for the backs. Though there aren't a lot of massive drive blockers up front, it's a cohesive unit that generally does a good job of getting into position. More important, it's swift enough to prevent the Huskies' defensive linemen from regularly getting into the backfield. Secondly, Lonta Hobbs and Aaron Brown are both gifted runners. Hobbs bursts through holes and runs hard between the tackles. Brown has the speed to turn the corner and is dangerous when he gets into the open field. In addition, giving both backs carries should keep both fresh late in the game. Thirdly, Hobbs and Brown shouldn't see many eight-man fronts. If Doornbos starts walking a safety up into the box, it will make Northern Illinois vulnerable to getting beat deep by effectively creating single-coverage matchups on the outside. The longer the score stays close, the better the Huskies' chances of winning, so Doornbos shouldn't be too aggressive.
Northern Illinois Offense vs. TCU Defense
It's important to remember that the Frogs have significantly outscored their opponents in the first half and averaged more time of possession than their opponents when evaluating their run defense. If teams didn't have to throw the ball in an effort to come from behind or the defense had to stay on the field for longer periods of time, would TCU still have one of the stoutest run defenses in the nation? That question should be answered by the Frogs' ability to slow RB Garrett Wolfe, who has rushed for more yards than any other Division I-A player this year. Wolfe's only real weakness is his size, as he explodes through holes, shows a second gear in the open field and his balance allowed him to pick up yards after contact. He's also averaged just more than 24 carries per game and it is unlikely offensive coordinator John Bond abandons the run if the Huskies fall behind early. The key for TCU will be winning the battle of the trenches and playing fundamentally sound defense. NT Jarrarcea Williams possesses good size and is strong at the point of attack. If he can consistently draw double teams, it should help keep blockers off MLB Jason Phillips, who has sideline-to-sideline range. In addition, the Frogs do a good job of rotating their defensive linemen, so it's unlikely they wear down as the game progresses. However, a strong game from the defensive line won't matter if it and the rest of the defense don't stay disciplined. Wolfe has excellent vision and lateral mobility, so he can still produce when the hole the play calls for him to run though doesn't open.
Northern Illinois head coach Joe Novak probably wishes this wasn't the first bowl on the schedule. A later bowl would have given senior QB Phil Horvath more time to recover from the knee injury he sustained against Central Michigan late in the season. The Huskies are still hopeful that Horvath will be back in the lineup, but it is unknown whether or not he'll play, and backup Dan Nicholson threw three interceptions in the final regular season game. That said, neither quarterback makes great decisions under pressure so Northern Illinois' pass protection should have to hold up, and that won't be an easy task. TCU defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas is aggressive and keeps blockers off balance by blitzing from different angles. In fact, 15 different defenders have recorded sacks. Keeping that in mind, LOT Doug Free has to hold up on an island working against talented DE's Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. If he can, it will free up blockers to provide help in other areas. The good news for Free is Bond should help him by keeping the ends off balance with some screens, and Wolfe is always a threat to turn a short catch into a long gain. In addition, it's worth noting that TE Jake Nordin is listed as questionable with a leg injury and his return to the lineup should give the passing game a substantial boost. Nordin is an effective pass blocker and an adequate short-to-intermediate receiver who can provide the quarterback with a good safety valve.
With TCU crowding the line of scrimmage in an effort to slow Wolfe and blitzing in certain situations, wide receivers Britt Davis and Marcus Perez should see plenty of single coverage. However, that doesn't mean they'll have success getting open. Redshirt freshmen Nick Sanders and Rafael Priest have developed into a quality corner tandem. While Priest doesn't make as many big plays as Sanders, both have above average man-to-man cover skills.
Special Teams
TCU PK Chris Manfredini was a bit inconsistent earlier in the year, but he has settled in and connected on 11 of 13 field goal attempts overall. Backup Peter Lococo has gotten plenty of opportunities in relief. The Frogs like to use Lococo when attempting long-distance field goals and kicking off because he has superior range. However, he has missed his only two field goal attempts outside 50 yards and two of his kickoffs have gone out of bounds. Brian Cortney should handle the bulk of the punting duties. He possesses good leg strength and is capable of placing the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Derek Wash has 13 punts on the year and has shown good touch when trying to pin the opponent deep. Both punters have to get rid of the ball quickly, and their protection must be sound because the Huskies have blocked two punts this year. PRs Brian Bonner and Marcus Brock are aggressive and they reach their top speed quickly so Northern Illinois' kickoff cover unit must continue to play well. Though Donald Massey is quick and Aaron Brown possesses good speed, they face a strong Husky kickoff cover unit.
Northern Illinois PK Chris Nendick has been busy connecting on 20 of his 26 field goal attempts this year. Though he flashes the ability to connect on long-range field goal attempts, accuracy is his strongest attribute and he isn't going to miss many field goal attempts inside 40 yards. He gets good distance on his kickoffs as well. P Andy Dittbenner doesn't have great leg strength, but he generally gets good hang-time on his kicks and he has placed 13 of his 46 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Much like his counterparts, he must get rid of the ball quickly because the Horned Frogs have blocked three punts this year. The Huskies' return units have been average at best and it's unlikely that changes against a TCU team that has done a good job of covering kicks. However, the Frogs must be careful not to underestimate Matt Simon. Northern Illinois gave Simon an opportunity to return punts late in the year and he took one of his two returns back 40 yards.
Matchups
? Northern Illinois RB Garrett Wolfe vs. TCU Jason Phillips
? TCU LOT Herb Taylor vs. Northern Illinois DE Larry English
? Northern Illinois LOT Doug Free vs. TCU DE Tommy Blake
Scouts' Edge
Though he should run with great determination and electrify the crowd with some of his runs, Wolfe doesn't have the consistent passing attack to prevent TCU from ganging up on him. The Frogs should take advantage by regularly playing eight men near the ling of scrimmage and allowing them to slow Wolfe enough to force Northern Illinois to put the ball in the air. With TCU's pass rush applying consistent pressure and its corners covering well, it won't matter whether Horvath or Nicholson lines up under center. The Frogs will force some errant throws that cause Husky drives to stall or generate some turnovers. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, doesn't have the luxury of focusing on stopping one aspect of the TCU offense. If the Huskies stack the line of scrimmage in an effort to take away the run, Jeff Ballard should pick the secondary apart. If Northern Illinois stays conservative and consistently drops seven men into coverage, running backs Lonta Hobbs and Aaron Brown should be productive enough to keep the chains moving. In addition, it's unlikely the Huskies' return units help the offense by providing quality starting field position or points.
Prediction: Horned Frogs 35, Huskies 21
