It?s not often that a 10-4 team is a five-point underdog to a sub-.500 opponent, but that?s exactly the scenario that is playing out between Air Force (10-4 overall, 1-0 Mountain West Conference) and Wyoming (7-8, 0-2).
How does that happen?
Well, the Falcons own exactly zero wins against top-150 RPI opponents. They own two non-NCAA Division I wins and have also padded their record with victories against Mississippi Valley State (329 RPI), Robert Morris (343), The Citadel (270), UC Davis (261) and San Jose State (337).
KenPom.com puts Air Force?s schedule in the bottom 10 percent nationally.
(It should be said, though, that the Falcons were tied with New Mexico and Wyoming for the most nonconference road wins with two.)
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have played stretches of inspiring basketball in nearly every game, save for maybe losses Indiana State and Southern, neither of which were blowouts. But they?ve lost eight times.
Now, to be fair, Wyoming?s seven wins haven?t been against powerhouses either. Two non-NCAA Division I teams, Denver (241) and Montana State (248) account for more than half its wins. But beating Cal State Bakersfield (129), underrated Nebraska-Omaha (178) and New Mexico State (186) on the road has displayed this young squad?s potential.
However, Wyoming has dropped four games this season by a combined two points at the end of regulation in those contests ? twice by one point (Montana State, Nevada), once in overtime (California) and once in double overtime (Houston). That's muddied the Pokes' record.
An 11-4 Wyoming team as a five-point favorite over 10-4 Air Force? Well that would sure make a heck of a lot more sense.
Ultimately, UW?s competitive drive has kept it in just about every game, and it?s earned it favorite status for Wednesday night, too.
In Air Force, Wyoming will see a methodical Princeton offense.
It is patient. It is kind. It is ? OK never mind, bad joke.
But really, it is patient, waiting for defenders to fall asleep on backdoor cuts for easy baskets.
I got a chance to see that style of offense Tuesday night, when my alma mater, Creighton, beat Princeton offense-running Georgetown by double digits. (You didn?t think I?d pass up a chance to insert a Creighton reference, did you?)
It takes a disciplined defense to lock down and get stops. Fortunately for Wyoming, it has some experience this season in doing just that.
On Dec. 2, it held Denver?s Princeton offense to 52 points in its first win at Magness Arena since 2001.
As sophomore forward Jonathan Barnes told the Star-Tribune this week, ?no two teams are exactly alike, but playing against a similar style of offense with similar style of players, that?ll go a long way.?
The offensive principles are the same, and the attention to detail of this particular scouting report is paramount to Wyoming?s success.
The Cowboys will also need to key in on Air Force junior forward Hayden Graham.
A relatively unknown prospect out of Anderson High School in Austin, Texas, Graham spent a year at the Air Force Academy Prep School. He then appeared in 15 games in 2013-14 before breaking out as a sophomore last season with 12 points and eight rebounds a game while starting 19 contests.
Despite being undersized at 6-foot-5 and 195 pounds, Graham leads the Falcons in average scoring (15.4) and rebounding (7.8) this season.
In the backcourt, sophomore Trevor Lyons is in the midst of a breakout year himself, following a similar career trajectory as Graham.
A 6-3, 190-pound guard out of Newport News, Virginia, Lyons also spent a year at the Air Force Academy Prep School. He made 26 starts in 2014-15. This year, he?s increased his scoring average from 7.9 to 14.9. His assists are up from 2.2 to 3.6, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is down to 1.8 from 2.2.
Along with Graham and Lyons, Air Force?s other two regular starters attended the Academy?s prep school for a year as well.
Zach Moer, a 6-11, 225-pound senior center, has contributed 10.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Entering this season, he had appeared in 48 career games, but hadn?t made a start. This year, he?s started all 13 games in which he?s logged minutes.
Zach Kocur, a 6-3, 200-pound junior guard chips in 9.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. He?s also second on the team in assist average at 2.4. He ranks fifth on Air Force?s all-time 3-point field-goal percentage list at 40.9 percent. But after shooting a blistering 47.5 percent from downtown last year, he?s made just 29.8 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.
The fifth starting position has been up for grabs, especially since sophomore forward Ryan Manning went down last month with a season-ending ACL tear.
Junior forward Kyle Broekhuis, a 6-7, 200-pound local product from Colorado Springs Christian, has made seven starts. He?s posting 5.5 points and 3.6 rebounds in 19.9 minutes per game.
Altogether, Air Force is a middle-of-the-pack team statistically, not particularly eye-popping on the national charts.
According to KenPom, the Falcons? adjusted offense is 286th, scoring 96.6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense ranks much better (132nd), giving up 100.4 points per 100. In adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), Air Force is 186th with 69.6.
Perhaps the Falcons? best stat ? one that?s helped them go 6-1 in games decided by seven points or less ? is the luck rating, where they rank fifth. Wyoming is 293rd in that department, for what it?s worth.
Quick notes on the Falcons
Graham is one of three players in the Mountain West to lead his team in both points and rebounds. The other two? San Jose State?s Frank Rogers and Wyoming?s own Josh Adams.
Air Force has used seven different starting lineups this season. Its most recent lineup, of Graham, Lyons, Moer, Kocur and Broekhuis, has started six games with a 5-1 record.
The Falcons top the Mountain West in 3-point field-goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 31.5 percent from long range.
In the Mountain West?s preseason poll, Air Force was picked 10th ? the same spot it finished in 2013-14. Last year, it placed ninth.
The Falcons have hit at least one 3-pointer in 195 straight games, dating back to Nov. 21, 2009, against Northern Colorado.
For his team?s game on Dec. 29 against Western State, Air Force coach Dave Pilipovich paid for 509 fans to attend. Fans simply needed to visit the ticket office and say that ?Coach P sent me? for a free ticket. The result was a season-high attendance of 2,009. For Pilipovich?s philanthropy, ESPN named him one of its three ?Stars of the Night.?
Pokes points
Adams is averaging a whopping 26.1 points per game, which is the most in the Mountain West and the third-most nationally. He?s scored 30-plus points five times already. If the season ended today, his scoring average would rank third in Wyoming single-season history. He is currently 15th in career scoring in program history, needing just 150 points to break into the top 10.
Wyoming is the league?s only team to have started conference play with two road games. It?s also the lone ballclub to open with four of six games on the road.
The Pokes are first in the conference and 26th nationally in free-throw percentage at 75 on the year. Adams (82 percent, third) and junior wing Jason McManamen (80 percent, seventh) are both in the top 10 of the Mountain West in that stat.
UW has never started 0-3 in conference play in five previous seasons under coach Larry Shyatt.
How does that happen?
Well, the Falcons own exactly zero wins against top-150 RPI opponents. They own two non-NCAA Division I wins and have also padded their record with victories against Mississippi Valley State (329 RPI), Robert Morris (343), The Citadel (270), UC Davis (261) and San Jose State (337).
KenPom.com puts Air Force?s schedule in the bottom 10 percent nationally.
(It should be said, though, that the Falcons were tied with New Mexico and Wyoming for the most nonconference road wins with two.)
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have played stretches of inspiring basketball in nearly every game, save for maybe losses Indiana State and Southern, neither of which were blowouts. But they?ve lost eight times.
Now, to be fair, Wyoming?s seven wins haven?t been against powerhouses either. Two non-NCAA Division I teams, Denver (241) and Montana State (248) account for more than half its wins. But beating Cal State Bakersfield (129), underrated Nebraska-Omaha (178) and New Mexico State (186) on the road has displayed this young squad?s potential.
However, Wyoming has dropped four games this season by a combined two points at the end of regulation in those contests ? twice by one point (Montana State, Nevada), once in overtime (California) and once in double overtime (Houston). That's muddied the Pokes' record.
An 11-4 Wyoming team as a five-point favorite over 10-4 Air Force? Well that would sure make a heck of a lot more sense.
Ultimately, UW?s competitive drive has kept it in just about every game, and it?s earned it favorite status for Wednesday night, too.
In Air Force, Wyoming will see a methodical Princeton offense.
It is patient. It is kind. It is ? OK never mind, bad joke.
But really, it is patient, waiting for defenders to fall asleep on backdoor cuts for easy baskets.
I got a chance to see that style of offense Tuesday night, when my alma mater, Creighton, beat Princeton offense-running Georgetown by double digits. (You didn?t think I?d pass up a chance to insert a Creighton reference, did you?)
It takes a disciplined defense to lock down and get stops. Fortunately for Wyoming, it has some experience this season in doing just that.
On Dec. 2, it held Denver?s Princeton offense to 52 points in its first win at Magness Arena since 2001.
As sophomore forward Jonathan Barnes told the Star-Tribune this week, ?no two teams are exactly alike, but playing against a similar style of offense with similar style of players, that?ll go a long way.?
The offensive principles are the same, and the attention to detail of this particular scouting report is paramount to Wyoming?s success.
The Cowboys will also need to key in on Air Force junior forward Hayden Graham.
A relatively unknown prospect out of Anderson High School in Austin, Texas, Graham spent a year at the Air Force Academy Prep School. He then appeared in 15 games in 2013-14 before breaking out as a sophomore last season with 12 points and eight rebounds a game while starting 19 contests.
Despite being undersized at 6-foot-5 and 195 pounds, Graham leads the Falcons in average scoring (15.4) and rebounding (7.8) this season.
In the backcourt, sophomore Trevor Lyons is in the midst of a breakout year himself, following a similar career trajectory as Graham.
A 6-3, 190-pound guard out of Newport News, Virginia, Lyons also spent a year at the Air Force Academy Prep School. He made 26 starts in 2014-15. This year, he?s increased his scoring average from 7.9 to 14.9. His assists are up from 2.2 to 3.6, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is down to 1.8 from 2.2.
Along with Graham and Lyons, Air Force?s other two regular starters attended the Academy?s prep school for a year as well.
Zach Moer, a 6-11, 225-pound senior center, has contributed 10.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Entering this season, he had appeared in 48 career games, but hadn?t made a start. This year, he?s started all 13 games in which he?s logged minutes.
Zach Kocur, a 6-3, 200-pound junior guard chips in 9.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. He?s also second on the team in assist average at 2.4. He ranks fifth on Air Force?s all-time 3-point field-goal percentage list at 40.9 percent. But after shooting a blistering 47.5 percent from downtown last year, he?s made just 29.8 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.
The fifth starting position has been up for grabs, especially since sophomore forward Ryan Manning went down last month with a season-ending ACL tear.
Junior forward Kyle Broekhuis, a 6-7, 200-pound local product from Colorado Springs Christian, has made seven starts. He?s posting 5.5 points and 3.6 rebounds in 19.9 minutes per game.
Altogether, Air Force is a middle-of-the-pack team statistically, not particularly eye-popping on the national charts.
According to KenPom, the Falcons? adjusted offense is 286th, scoring 96.6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense ranks much better (132nd), giving up 100.4 points per 100. In adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), Air Force is 186th with 69.6.
Perhaps the Falcons? best stat ? one that?s helped them go 6-1 in games decided by seven points or less ? is the luck rating, where they rank fifth. Wyoming is 293rd in that department, for what it?s worth.
Quick notes on the Falcons
Graham is one of three players in the Mountain West to lead his team in both points and rebounds. The other two? San Jose State?s Frank Rogers and Wyoming?s own Josh Adams.
Air Force has used seven different starting lineups this season. Its most recent lineup, of Graham, Lyons, Moer, Kocur and Broekhuis, has started six games with a 5-1 record.
The Falcons top the Mountain West in 3-point field-goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 31.5 percent from long range.
In the Mountain West?s preseason poll, Air Force was picked 10th ? the same spot it finished in 2013-14. Last year, it placed ninth.
The Falcons have hit at least one 3-pointer in 195 straight games, dating back to Nov. 21, 2009, against Northern Colorado.
For his team?s game on Dec. 29 against Western State, Air Force coach Dave Pilipovich paid for 509 fans to attend. Fans simply needed to visit the ticket office and say that ?Coach P sent me? for a free ticket. The result was a season-high attendance of 2,009. For Pilipovich?s philanthropy, ESPN named him one of its three ?Stars of the Night.?
Pokes points
Adams is averaging a whopping 26.1 points per game, which is the most in the Mountain West and the third-most nationally. He?s scored 30-plus points five times already. If the season ended today, his scoring average would rank third in Wyoming single-season history. He is currently 15th in career scoring in program history, needing just 150 points to break into the top 10.
Wyoming is the league?s only team to have started conference play with two road games. It?s also the lone ballclub to open with four of six games on the road.
The Pokes are first in the conference and 26th nationally in free-throw percentage at 75 on the year. Adams (82 percent, third) and junior wing Jason McManamen (80 percent, seventh) are both in the top 10 of the Mountain West in that stat.
UW has never started 0-3 in conference play in five previous seasons under coach Larry Shyatt.
